1D VWAP Lowerband Target, 1st Moving Average Failure, 2nd Deviation MovAvg Short, 2nd Moving Average Failure, Bearish Line In The Sand Reversal, Break & Retest of Prior Day Trend Reversal, Daily Chart Reversal, H12 Bearish FVG Liquidity Sweep, H12 Bearish FVG Squeeze, H12 Bearish Orderblock (Short), H6 Bearish Orderblock Short, Line In The Sand (Between 1st & 2nd Moving Averages(, M1 BL/BR Variation Short Entry (, M1 Entry (Close Below 2nd Moving Average, M5 BL/BR Variation Short Entry , Market Reversal, Market Trend Reversal (Break & Retest, Powell, Prior Day Reversal, Turtle Soup,

For tomorrow's trading session, focus on prioritizing 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks for short trades. Ensure that your short setups are well-supported by these orderblocks, rather than relying solely on moving averages. Additionally, validate your short entries with a data-backed playbook to enhance confidence in your strategy. Keep an eye on the overall market trend, especially on higher time frames, to avoid taking trades that conflict with the broader bullish momentum.

 

 

(NOTES) ALSO, we noticed today that the WK SSL area provided a liquidity sweep down to a Prior Week LOW level. And this has to be noted in the future when doing technical analysis. Rule - " If a specific timeframe high or low, does not align with that specific candles ACTUAL printed high or low, than that can be an imbalance in price that can be located for a liquidity sweep"

Key Takeaway:

• Liquidity Sweep Insight: The observation that a Weekly Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) area triggered a liquidity sweep down to a Prior Week Low highlights a crucial rule for future technical analysis. If a specific timeframe's high or low does not match the actual printed high or low of that candle, it may indicate a price imbalance that could lead to a liquidity sweep. This insight should be incorporated into your analysis to better anticipate potential liquidity movements.

 

 

 

 

Orderblocks and Variations:

1. New Rule on Orderblocks:
   • The 3-bar orderblock pattern, where the 2nd bar wicks above the prior bar and the 3rd bar closes above or below a variation level, is now identified as a false signal if the 2nd bar does not show rapid displacement away from the prior bar.
   • The wick rejection on the 2nd bar indicates continued weakness and reduces the probability of the setup's success.
   • High-probability variations require the 2nd bar to move away with strong displacement.

Market Context and Trend Analysis:

2. Whipsaw Action and Daily Bias Indecision:
   • Daily reversals or indecision in daily bias suggest potential whipsaw action.
   • The 12-hour Line In The Sand (LIS) acts as a VWAP-like area, serving as a central point for larger deviation moves, particularly when the daily trend is unclear or conflicting with weekly/monthly levels.
   • This central role of the 12-hour LIS explains why moving averages fail, as they reflect the larger macro range based on weekly levels.

Trade Review and Insights:

3. Swing Trade and 12-Hour Chart Analysis:
   • The prior swing trade was based on a weekly bearish sell-side liquidity and a bearish variation that failed to displace lower, leading to an anticipated drop that did not occur.
   • The position remained at breakeven, with the recognition that the next 12-hour draw on liquidity might target the stop-loss before presenting a new long opportunity.
   • The current long position is a Turtle Soup entry, suggesting the 12-hour draw on liquidity manipulated prior longs out of their positions.

Important Trading Rule:

4. 12-Hour and Daily Trend Interaction:
   • When the market is trending on the daily chart, 12-hour highs/lows in the direction of the daily trend will be in play, with the 12-hour LIS acting as support/resistance.
   • In contrast, during daily reversals, daily bias indecision, or when interacting with larger timeframe levels (weekly/monthly), the 12-hour LIS will act as a median point and draw on liquidity within a larger macro range on the weekly chart.
   • In such cases, the 12-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) is likely to act as an inverse FVG rather than a continuation FVG.

Documentation and Future Application:

5. Documentation of Larger Timeframe Levels:
   • This observation is crucial for understanding and documenting price action at larger levels, particularly on the weekly chart, where the 12-hour FVG in macro ranges can often act inversely to what is typically expected.

These insights will help refine your trading approach, especially in recognizing and reacting to signals on larger timeframes and understanding the interaction between different timeframes during market indecision or trend reversals.

 

 

We have a new Rule on Orderblocks/Variations & 12 hour chart analysis on weekly levels.

We have consistenly seen 3 bar orderblocks, where the 2nd bar creates a wick above the prior bar, with the 3rd bar closing above or below a varation level.

We now have data backed proof to suggest that this is a false signal, signaling that the wick rejection displays continued weakness, and less probability of the setup working. In order for a variation to hold its high probability success, the 2nd bar should move rapidly away from the prior bar with displacement. 

we have observed that when there are daily reversals, or daily indecision trading actions, and inability to decipher daily bias, its an indication of whipsaw action, and that the H12 LIS will act as a VWAP area and center point for larger deviation moves (weekly&monthly levels), and that it likely why the LIS is in the center of both moving averages, and there is a break of daily trend. And the reason why the moving averages are failing and acting as a centerpoint for a much larger macro rangem based off of weekly levels.

Now yesterday when I entered my swing trade, it was based off of a weely bearish sell side liquidity & bearish variation failure to displace lower. I anticipated that the sell side liquidity would provide a much larger drop. But it didnt. 

My position stayed break even for the remainder of the trading session, and I also noticed that the prior 12 hour bar closed bearish, and I noticed that the next 12 hour draw on liquidity would likely target my stoploss on the long swing trade, take me out, and present another potential opportunity to enter long. 

So the long that I am currently in is a Turtle Soup long entry based off of my prior stoploss, which I think was manipulated on the 12 hour draw on liquidity as a last attempt to knock prior longs out of position. 

If this trade works out, its important to note a very important trading rule that I could be noticing, and that is When the market is trending on the daily, the 12 hour highs or lows, in the direction of the daily trend will be in play, and the line in the sand will act as a support or resistance in that continued direction. BUT, when we are trading against daily reversals, daily bias indecision AND larger timeframe levels such as the weekly or monthly ETC, than the daily chart trend, and 12 hour line in the sand will act as a MEDIAN point and draw on liquidity in a larger macro range on the weekly chart, especially if the 12 hour chart has an FVG. From what i currently have in the price action database, is that its likely that the 12 hour FVG in these larger timeframe ranges on the weekly and monthly, will usually act as an inverse fair value gap (FVG) rather than a continuation FVG. This is very important to document, as we have had troubles reading larger levels on the weekly in the past. And now we finally can journal the price action behind this type of action. 

 

ALSO, we noticed today that the WK SSL area provided a liquidity sweep down to a Prior Week LOW level.

And this has to be noted in the future when doing technical analysis.

Rule - " If a specific timeframe high or low, does not align with that specific candles ACTUAL printed high or low, than that can be an imbalance in price that can be located for a liquidity sweep"

 

 

Here are the key takeaways from your trading session notes:

1. Trade Entry Strategy:

• Took a short position at 9:26 AM based on the first 1-minute close below the 2nd DV MA, aiming to capitalize on a bearish trend reversal (reverse V trade).
• Noted the breach of the Bearish Line In The Sand at 6:41 AM but initially assumed the bearish fair value gap on the 12-hour chart could provide a short opportunity.

1. Market Context and Trend Analysis:

• The trend appeared bearish due to the 2nd DV MA being below the 1st DV MA.
• Despite the bearish indicators, the 12-hour Line In The Sand breach suggested potential liquidity sweep and a continuation of the overall bullish trend observed on the weekly chart.

1. Technical Indicators and Moving Averages:

• Recognized that the weekly chart was still showing higher highs and lows, indicating a bullish overall wave.
• Lacked a data-backed playbook for short trades based on moving averages, assuming short trades would respect the same rules as long trades was not accurate.

1. Orderblock Analysis:

• Noted that recent short trades were more aligned with the 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks, which were defending against bullish liquidity.
• The confluence of the 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks provided a zero drawdown entry with a strong short-side trade opportunity.

1. Entry and Exit Points:

• The best entry during the session was a 1-minute bullish-to-bearish variation short entry following a 6-hour bearish orderblock rejection from the previous day.
• The 1-minute chart was manipulated by the 12-hour bearish orderblock, but the 6-hour bearish orderblock was slightly more advantageous.

1. Trade Outcome and Lessons Learned:

• The 1-minute bullish-to-bearish variation entry provided minimal drawdown and a strong short trade setup, with the profit target aligning with a confluence level between the premarket open print and 1-day VWAP lower band.
• Future short-side trades should focus on 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks and potentially disregard moving averages if they are not aligning with short trade setups.

Summary: For future trading sessions, prioritize 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks for short trades over moving averages. Validate short setups with a data-backed playbook and consider overall market trends and higher time frame charts to avoid conflicts with broader trends.

 

 

 

I took a short position at 9:26 AM, on the first 1 Minute close below the 2nd DV MA, to play the right side of the reverse V trade, and go with the predominant trend which appeared to be a short biased session, solely because the 2nd DV MA was stacked below the 1st DV MA. One thing I did notice was the breach of the Bearish Line In The Sand at around 6:41 AM, but at this point I though that the bearish fair value gap created on the 12 hour chart, could have potentially provided a short side trade right back down because at this point, the moving averages were not yet claimed. 

 

What I should have noted at this point, was that, although the trend appeared to be on my side, the breach of the 12 Hour Line In The Sand, would have likely swept the liquidity on the 12 hour fair value gap, because although the prior day signaled a daily reversal, the weekly chart, which is a full standard deviation above the daily chart, was still making higher highs and higher lows, so the overall wave was still bullish, and in order to have played against the weekly chart, we would have needed a totally brand new weekly candle to play the bullish to bearish variation against. 

 

I also didnt have a data backed playbook for any moving average short trades. I figured that because the market was heavily respecting the long side moving average trades, that it would likely respect the short side trades, but this was not accurate. 

 

As it stands, the short side trades for the past 2 trading sessions, have been heavily respecting the 12 hour and 6 hour bearish orderblocks. The first short side trade opportunity, was presented from a 12 hour and 6 hour confluence bearish orderblock, which was defending the weekly draw on liquidity from bulls, as a short side stoploss. 

 

The Market Reversal off of this confluence orderblock, was a 2 hour chart bullish to bearish variation entry, from a zero drawdown upojn entry perspective. 

 

And this trading sessions best entry, was a bullish to bearish variation short entry on the 1 minute chart, coming from a 6 hour bearish orderblock rejection from the prior day. 

The 1 minute chart was manipulated and stop hunted from the 12 hour bearish orderblock reaction. So it appears currently, that the H6 bearish orderblock, is slightly advantageous to the 12 hour at the moment. the confluence 12 hour and 6 hour orderblock from the prior day, provided a zero drawdown entry on the first 1 minute close below the confluence level. 

 

this trading session, the 1 minute bullish to bearish variation entry provided minimal drawdown, and a trade of the day setup opportunity for a short side trade. At our desired profit target, which was a confluence level target between the premarket open print and 1 DAY VWAP Lowerband 

 

So for now, we can derive bias off of the moving averages, but if we are going to play a short side setup, we will disregard the moving averages, and focus on the 12 hour and 6 hour bearish orderblocks that are presented for any short side trade opportunities.

1D 1M VWAP Lowerband & MoAvg Confluence, 2nd Deviation MovAvg Long, LIS (Bullish), LIS M15 Demand, M1 Bullish Close Entry, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, M15 Bullish Orderblock, M15 Demand LIS, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband,

 

Key Confluences for Today's and Yesterday's Counter-Trend Trades:

1. Liquidity Sweep Confluence:

   • Both trades were executed following a draw on liquidity, which was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance, signaling potential reversals.

2. First Deviation Moving Average:

   • The 9:30 AM session showed a sharp move up into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up a short trade. However, this moving average has shown to be less reliable, often providing false signals, especially in the premarket, where it can trigger stopouts.

3. Premarket Considerations:

   • In the premarket, the first deviation moving average signaled a potential stopout, suggesting that the downside move might extend to the second deviation moving average, which aligns better with the trend.

4. Data-Driven Context:

   • The prior day's inactivity due to data release suggested a high probability setup for the upperband to lowerband trade. Today's setup echoed similar conditions with bearish orderblocks and liquidity sweeps.

5. Bearish Orderblocks & Liquidity Context:

   • Today's daily draw on liquidity was situated between multiple bearish orderblocks (H12, H6, H4). However, the initial losses could have been avoided by recognizing that these orderblocks had been "swept," weakening their reliability as resistance.

6. Imbalance & Entry Signals:

   • A significant imbalance above today's 1D 1M upperband, coupled with a full-body close below the upperband, provided a clear short entry signal.

7. Trustworthiness of Resistance Levels:

   • The loss in the first trade could have been avoided by identifying the swept H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, indicating that the resistance level might no longer be strong, especially in a counter-trend scenario.

8. Seller Presence After Liquidity Sweep:

   • The rejection after the buy-side liquidity was swept implied strong seller presence, reinforcing the short bias.

9. Precise Entry Timing:

   • The 1-minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no-drawdown entry points, highlighting the importance of precise timing in executing trades.

Intention for Tomorrow:

Given these confluences, your focus should be on:

• Trusting the Confluences: Prioritize entries where multiple confluences align, especially after a liquidity sweep in conjunction with strong imbalances or key moving averages.
• Identifying Swept Levels: Pay close attention to swept orderblocks and liquidity levels, recognizing that their strength may be diminished, particularly in counter-trend trades.
• Refining Entry Precision: Continue to focus on precise entry timing, using 1-minute closes below key levels as a signal to minimize drawdown and maximize the probability of success.

 

 

 

 

Confluences for today and yesterdays counter trend trade:

* Draw on Liquidity was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance

* The first deviation moving average provided a 9:30 rip up, into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up the short side trade

* The first deviation moving average has shown false signals either in the premarket, displaying a stopout trade, which invalidates it. Leaving more downside room to the second deviation moving average. 

* We had data on the day prior, because no trade opportunity was presented, and the trade of the day setup was an upperband to lowerband trade. 

* Todays daily draw on liquidity was in between multiple bearish orderblocks. (H12/H6 & H4)

* There was a massive imbalance with the move above todays 1d 1m upperband, with a full body close below the upperband giving an entry signal

* We could have avoided the first loss by marking the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks as (swept), signaling that the resistance level might now have been as strong and trustworthy. Especially because it was counter trend. To play counter trend, which is already less probability, the least we can do is use un swept liquidity. 

* Buy side liquidity was swept and (rejected) implying that sellers are present.

* 1 minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no drawdown entries.

 

 

 

Refined Summary of Today's Trading Session:

1. Morning Trade Reflection:

• Trade Execution: Took a long trade against the predominant trend, expecting a similar setup to yesterday's VWAP upperband to lowerband short on the 1D 1M chart. The trade failed.
• Reasoning: Entered off the 1st moving average and 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence with a 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry.
• Observation: Recognized the potential manipulation due to upcoming data releases at 10:30 AM and FOMC minutes at 2 PM. Considered that the overnight session might have weakened the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, which were retested to the tick, leading to the failure of this trade.
• Lesson: Avoid boredom trading; the loss was minimal compared to recent gains. The primary desired entry was off the 2nd moving average, which wasn’t presented.

2. Mid-Morning Short Trade:

• Trade Execution: Entered a short trade after a sweep of Daily draw on liquidity, leveraging H12 and H2 bearish orderblocks, and 1D 1M VWAP upperband confluence on the M1 chart. It was a quick trade against the predominant trend.
• Observation: The lack of volume expansion on the 1D VWAP suggested a range day, prompting the decision to trade against the extremity.
• Lesson: Need to develop a ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, particularly when identifying liquidity sweeps during different sessions (e.g., 9:30 AM vs. overnight).

3. A+ Setup Execution:

• Trade Execution: Took an A+ setup long trade off the 2nd moving average after missing the exact entry due to a walk. The trade was confirmed by an M15 reaction off an M15 orderblock aligned with the ‘Line In The Sand.’
• Management: Partial profit taken at the 1D 1M VWAP upperband, with the plan to let the rest run through the day's high. The trade was based on expected momentum from potential short squeezes.
• Outcome: The trade was successfully managed, trailing out the runners with significant profit.

4. Afternoon Reflection:

• Observation: Noticed a strong confluence when the deviation moving averages align with the upper or lower bands, leading to high probability trades. However, current volume wasn’t expanding, signaling potential exhaustion in upward liquidity sweeps.
• Action Plan: Removed the 1st deviation moving average due to previous failures and decided to focus on developing a ruleset for utilizing moving averages in specific market contexts. Emphasis on defining counter-trend trade setups with clear confluences, as identified in today's trades.

Key Takeaways & Action Points:

1. Avoid Boredom Trading: Ensure that trades are only taken when high-confidence setups are present. Losses can be minimized by sticking to well-defined setups.
2. Data-Backed Trading: Wait for A+ setups that are aligned with the trend and backed by historical data. Be cautious when entering counter-trend trades without a solid plan.
3. Confluence of Indicators: Recognize the importance of multiple confluences (e.g., deviation moving averages, VWAP bands, orderblocks) in identifying high-probability trades.
4. Counter-Trend Ruleset Development: Create a detailed ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, including the conditions under which they are justified and how to manage them effectively.
5. Market Context Analysis: Continuously compare and analyze price action relationships between different sessions (e.g., overnight vs. 9:30 AM) to refine trading decisions.
6. Post-Trade Review: Consistently review and journal trades, focusing on why they succeeded or failed. Use these insights to adapt and improve trading strategies.

Next Steps:

• Develop a Counter-Trend Trading Ruleset: Define the criteria for taking counter-trend trades, focusing on confluences and specific signals that validate such trades.
• Refine Moving Average Usage: Establish rules for when and how to use each moving average in various market contexts.
• Continue Data Collection: Gather more data on the correlation between VWAP bands and moving averages to enhance the robustness of your setups.
• Commit to A+ Setups: Prioritize waiting for A+ setups that align with the trend, and avoid taking trades out of impatience or boredom.

 

 

 

 

10:21AM. Took a long trade knowingly against the predominant trend. Fully aware. Thought it would follow the same setup yesterday where the 9:30 session would provide a upperband to lowerband vwap short on the 1D 1M chart. But it failed. 

It appears currently that the trade was taken off of the 1st moving average and the 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence. 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry. But data is yet to come out, we have it at 10:30 & FOMC minutes at 2PM. Its likely that my short stop could have been manipulated. 

The main entry I want is the one from 2 days ago which is a long off of the 2nd moving average. 

When the day is finished I will do a journaling session on why the first trade failed. Not only was the setup presented yesterday, but the uppband was also in confluence with the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks. It could have been that they were not as strong because they were retested to the tick in the overnight session. And the trade of the day setup in the overnight was a red oval at the retest area, so that basically displayed that shorts were knocked out of postion at that retest, so the loss definitely could have been avoided. I think it a bit of boredom trading because I didnt take one yesterday. But the loss was very minimal compared to the profits Ive been gaining. Ill take one more trade on the day at my ultimate desired entry point. If its not presented, Ill pass up and do a journal session to try to adapt to this market context. 

11:10 AM, caufht a short trade after the sweep of a Daily draw on liquidity and from an H12 and H2 bearish orderblock and 1D 1M Upperband VWAP confluence short. I traded it on the M1 chart and it was a failry quick trade against the predominant trend. And the reason for this is becausew the volume isnt expanding on the 1D VWAP. Its signaling more of a range day, so I decided to play against the extremity. 

Im going to have to develop a ruleset that allows me to take trades against the predominant trend. One thing to note is that todays draw on liquidity was swept in the 9:30 session, and not in the overnight, so Im going to have to define the relationships between today and yesterdays price action. 

12:18PM I took my A+ setup here, I missed the exact entry because I went on a walk, so I just marketed Long, and as Im typing this we just got M15 reaction confirmation off of the M15 orderblock set from the Line In The Sand. The real entry was a 1 Minute close back above the 2nd moving average, after the percieved manipulation sweep and stophunt of longs on the session. I currently have a partial to be taken off at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband around 19940. And I plan to let the rest run through todays HOD, as there is likely alot of fomo shorts from the earlier move, and if they didnt cover profit by now, I think they could potentially go underwater and get their stoplosses squeezed, creating more momentum and buy side liquidity above todays HOD. 

3:15PM. I just got trail stopped out of my runners. Another amazing trading day. I covered a majority at the 1D VWAP Upperband in this trade as well. Volume isnt currently expanding to the upside, so im not sure liquidity towards the upside will continue to be swept in this current trading session. 

But there is definitely a massive confluence correlation for a high probability trade when the deviation moving averages are in synch with the upper or lower bands. I dont have as much data on the band correlating with the upperband at the moment, compared to the lowerband, but so far, they are hitting well. 

I have bascially removed my 1st deviation moving average ever since I was stopped out the other day in the overnight on the H12 trend shift. I would like to develop a rule set this weekend on how and when each moving average comes into play, compared to specific market contexts, and when to take trades like I did today, against the predominant trend, and what signals I gave that resulted in a win. Because although I didnt have a counter trend trade plabooked yet, I felt there was alot of confluences today to take the counter trend trade. My job now is to just define it.

Had i not taken a counter trend trade and still waited for my A+ that is data backed and with the trend, it still would have resulted in a lowerband to upperband trade, for about 150-160 points. 

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. No Trade Executed:

   • Stuck to the plan by avoiding trades when the first deviation moving average was tested after a draw on liquidity.
   • Waited for a signal from the second deviation moving average, which never materialized.

2. Trend Contradictions:

   • Observed a conflict between the H12 bullish trend and the H6 bearish trend, similar to previous sessions.
   • The market hinted at repeating the previous day's setup, but the lack of a clear signal from the second deviation moving average led to inaction.

3. Market Manipulation and Signal Analysis:

   • Although the overall trend was bullish, there was a suspicion of market manipulation targeting longs.
   • The daily candle closed red, indicating bearish dominance after sweeping two daily liquidity levels overnight.
   • A 20-day Monthly VWAP Upperband signaled a short on the 1-hour chart, but a similar false signal on 8/16 led to hesitation in taking this trade.

4. H12 Chart Observations:

   • An H12 Fair Value Gap (FVG) aligned with the second deviation moving average suggested potential liquidity sweeps before a bullish move.
   • This FVG could have provided a lower entry point, but it also posed a risk of shifting the H12 trend from bullish to bearish.

5. Daily VWAP Upperband and Contradictions:

   • The 1D VWAP Upperband signaled a potential short, but the premarket high didn't reach the H12 bearish order block, leaving uncertainty about the full sell signal.
   • The daily candle closing below the first deviation moving average indicates potential bearish strength.

6. Overnight Session and Future Outlook:

   • The overnight session opened with the first order block on the M15 chart at the newly established Line in the Sand (LIS).
   • Despite the bearish daily candle, the overall trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows. The next key level is today's session high.
   • The plan is to maintain a long thesis until there is a clear reversal or full sell signal.

7. Reversal Signals and Data Tracking:

   • Noted that the second daily draw on liquidity, which served as a stop-loss area, was rejected, indicating potential market reversal.
   • Plans to monitor and track how buy side and sell side liquidity levels behave in future sessions to better anticipate reversals.

Summary:

You adhered to your trading plan by avoiding trades without clear signals, especially when facing trend contradictions. The market showed signs of potential manipulation and mixed signals, leading to a cautious approach. Going forward, you will continue to monitor key trends and levels while collecting data on liquidity reactions to enhance future decision-making.

 

 

 

 

No trade day for me. I simply followed yesterdays key intention to not trade the first deviation moving average after a draw on liquidity has been swept, and I was never presented an opportunity from the second deviation moving average. Although the H12 trend remained intact, but there was a contradiction with an h6 bearish trend which we have journaled in previous sessions.

Overall, it appeared that the market would present the same opportunity as yesterday. But again, I didnt get the 2nd deviation moving average signal. 

While the trend was up, and I was following my intention, and the price action appeared to be in a manipulation on longs phase, I simply didnt trade. Looking at the daily candle in hindsight, it closed red, which signals that for this specific trading session, bears won the candle after an overnight sweep of 2 daily draw on liquidity levels.

The 20D Month VWAP Upperband did give a 1 Hour sell signal through it, but it also gave that signal on 8/16 and it was a false signal, so I didnt full trust it.

I also noticed an FVG on the H12 chart, at the exact level of the second deviation moving average, which also signaled that the FVG liquidity could have been fully swept before it went in my direction, which would have provided a lower long entry point from which I wanted, and could also shift the H12 bullish variation to bearish, signaling a trend shift in market direction which would have invalidated longs. The trade of the day setup for the overnight and the 9:30 session were both rewarded to bears, which could have been signaled from the 1D VWAP Upperband as a short entry. But the premarket high on the session, didnt reach the H12 bearish orderblock slightly above it, so I was only working off of the draw on liquidity to the upside that was swept, but didnt initiate a full sell signal. 

I will say, the daily candle did close below the first deviation moving average. Which certainly showcases that bear could be stepping in here. 

Its difficult to say that I should have taken the short signal on the 1D VWAP, because at this point the market was trading well above the 20D VWAP upperband, which could signal more upside momentum in the predominant directional bias. So all signals had many contradictions overall on the trading session. 

The current overnight session has opened, and the first orderblock I can locate is on the M15 chart from the newly established LIS. Also, although bears won this specific daily candle, it is still following an overall bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows, therefor, the next daily draw on liquidity is the high of todays session. So until there is a full sell signal or reversal of directional bias, we must keep a long thesis until proven otherwise. 

Another thing to note, is that the second daily draw on liquidity served as a stoploss area (buyside liquidity) level from a prior bearish daily orderblock, yet the buy side liquidity was rejected and didnt serve as a momentum level for more upside. This also is a stronger signal implication of a potential reversal in the market. 

I have seen buy side and sell side levels often serve as reversal points in the market when there is a failure for follow through, and I think its important to track data on this in the future to analyze buy side and sell side liquidity reactions. 

So for now I will be monitoring the H12 trend, the H12 bullish variation, the 2nd deviation moving average, the H12 FVG for any potential reversals. 

1D 1M VWAP Lowerband & MoAvg Confluence, 1D M1 VWAP, 20D 1H Month VWAP Upperband, 2nd Deviation MovAvg Long, Daily Bearish Orderblock, Daily Bearish Orderblock Target, Daily Draw On Liquidity (Upside), H12 LIS Bearish Trend, H12 LIS Bullish Variation, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Entry, Month VWAP, Pre Market Low to Pre Market High, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, Weekly Draw On Liquidity (Upside),

Refined Key Takeaways and Trading Rules from the Session:

 

Reflection Note - 8/19/2024 4:21 PM

Observation:
Today was an exceptional trading day with perfect execution, especially in nailing the trade of the day setup during the 9:30 session. However, a significant amount of profit was left on the table towards the upside.

Actionable Insight:
For future sessions, it may be beneficial to revisit and refine strategies for capturing more profit in similar scenarios. This could involve:

• Extended Profit Targets: Considering higher profit targets when market conditions suggest strong continuation, supported by volume and trend strength.
• Trailing Stops: Implementing a more dynamic trailing stop strategy to lock in gains while allowing positions to run further.
• Partial Profit Adjustments: Reassessing the timing and scale of partial profit-taking to maximize the upside potential without prematurely exiting strong moves.

 

 

Key Takeaways:

1. Trend and Variation Analysis:

   • A shift from a bullish trend to a bearish trend was observed, triggered by a stop-loss event in the overnight session.
   • Confirmation was obtained that a bullish variation holds more weight than a bearish trend, which influenced the day's trading decisions.

2. First Deviation Moving Average:

   • A loss occurred when trading based on the first deviation moving average against liquidity that had already been swept.
   • This emphasizes the need to avoid trades against liquidity that has already been acted upon.

3. Second Deviation Moving Average:

   • The successful trade was based on the second deviation moving average, which aligned with a 1D 1M lower band and created a strong bullish variation.

4. Market Conditions:

   • No significant market-moving data was available during the session, which required a focus on technical setups rather than fundamental events.

5. Entry and Exit Strategy:

   • The buy stop order was executed at the moment of a bullish variation creation, with zero drawdown experienced and a clear exit strategy based on potential reversal signals.

6. Volume and Liquidity:

   • The market showed no signs of slowing down, with volume continuing to expand, indicating a strong bullish momentum.

Trading Rules:

1. First Deviation Moving Average:

   • Rule: Do not trade the first deviation moving average against liquidity that has already been swept. Only trade it into liquidity that has not yet been swept.
   • Adjustment: This rule may be revised if future data suggests different variables that can influence the probability of success.

2. Extremity Point Trading:

   • Rule: In the absence of clear market data, focus on trading from extremity points rather than following trend moves from the open.

3. Second Deviation Moving Average:

   • Rule: Prioritize trades using the second deviation moving average when it aligns with other technical confluences, such as lower bands and the creation of bullish variations.

4. Data-Driven Decisions:

   • Rule: Continue to rely on data and execute trades based on the setups that present themselves, adjusting strategies as more data becomes available.

5. Partial Profit-Taking:

   • Rule: Take partial profits after significant moves, especially when multiple order blocks suggest a potential reversal, while allowing a portion of the position to run if the market continues to show strength.

This refined summary and the set of trading rules should help guide future sessions and improve decision-making based on the lessons learned today.

 

 

 

 

It was a great trading day. It started somewhat yesterday in the overnight session for me as I took a long entry off of the first deviation moving average, and was stopped out for a loss at the open of the next H12 candle, that broke the trend from a bullish to bearish trend shift. Thats the exact area I took a stoploss, and it was for a very minimal loss, I think around 8-10 points. The entry was around midnight, and the stoploss was a half hour later. From that point I just went to sleep instead of continuing to trade. From the time the market opened in the overnight session, it trended staight up to what I had marked as the Week and Daily confluence draw on liquidity. And above that draw, I had the prior week draw on liquidty, which is the level I believed we were targeting last week, and it actually happened to be my main target on todays trading session, since it lined up in confluence with the 20D 1H Month VWAP Upperband

I marked the red and green ovals, because from the overnight session, shorts had the trade of the session setup from the short taken from the Weekly and Daily draw on liquidity, and because the price action held the prior H1 ODB and seemed to be shorts take profit, plus the H12 Bullish Variation Line In The Sand was still intact, but at this moment I had no data on whether a bullish h12 variation or a bearish h12 downtrend held more weight, but today I now have confirmation and data to support that a variation holds more weight than a trend, which is what I figured prior to taking my long trade today. 

One thing I did wrong and I guess I will have to avoid again in the future, is that I took a trade based off of the first deviation moving average, which seemed like a good trade at the time because the h12 trend was still bullish and intact at that point, from the low of my entry as a stoploss, at 1 in the morning at the turn of the next 12 hour candle, it stopped me out and shifted into a bearish trend. 

Now im not exactly sure what caused the first deviation moving average long stopout, but my best guess is that It would have been a higher probability trade if I took that long into the weekly and daily draw on liquidity/first take profit rather than taking the long against liquidity that was already swept.

Now the tricky part is that I still had higher draw on liquidity targets above, so whos to say that it couldnt have been the correct long entry?

Overall I will need to gather more data on this in the future on different variables that can affect which moving average may provide a higher probability long entry, but for now I will make my best guess a hard trading rule for the future. And that is, dont trade the first deviation moving average against liquidity that has been swept, and to only trade it into liquidity that has not yet been swept. 

If any data changes this rule in the future we will re adjust. 

So for the 9:30 session, the market opened, and I noticed also that there wasnt any hard market data on the day. There was minor 10AM data, but again, nothing that was market moving. So from this point, obviously we had a contradiction between the H12 bearish trend and the H12 bullish variation, so I knew that I need to take a trade from an extremity point rather that a trend move from the open type scenario. Now at this moment, obviously the trend was still up, because the moving averages have not yet reversed, so I knew that the only entry left for me was the second deviation moving average, so i decided to disregard and remove the study of the first deviation moving average because of the stopout I took in the overnight session. So around 10:21AM, we got a rapid reaction to the downside, which created an extremity/imbalance in price action, and the 1D 1M lowerband was in confluence with the 2nd deviation moving average. From this point, the moving average held, with no closure below, wicked on the 1 minute chart, and I traded it with a buy stop order at the exact moment the bearish to bullish variation was created. From the moment I entered, I experienced zero drawdown, with a fair value gap created and displacement from my entry, which is marked with a hard green box from my entry, and a hard stop at the low created from the imbalance. I took off around 85% after multiple orderblocks showed signs of potential reversal, and because we had a full lowerband to upperband move, so I wanted to take partials. As i sit here and journal this, the market is continuing to rip far beyond my profit targets, now heading into the next daily bearish orderblock and beyond. As it should, because volume is still expanding to the upside on the 20D 1H Month VWAP, and because there is a bunch of un swept liquidity of sell orders. This market doesnt seem to be displaying any signs of slowing down anytime soon. So I will just do what ive been doing, and that simply trading exactly what I see infront of me, relying on the data, and executing on the setups infront of me when I see them. 

H12 Bullish Turtle Soup, Moving Average Long,

Here are the key takeaways from today's trading notes:

1. Missed Initial Data, but Adapted Quickly: You started the day late and missed the initial data but quickly adapted by observing market behavior.

2. 9:30 Session Analysis:

   • The session opened with a break below the H12 Bullish LIS (Level of Interest), but the strong upward momentum kept your moving average strategy valid.
   • You decided not to short the H12 LIS break due to conflicting signals from your moving average, favoring a continuation of the trend instead.

3. Trend-Following Focus: Your primary strategy is trend-following, and you are incorporating multiple timeframes (1-minute, 2-minute, and 5-minute charts) to refine your entries and exits.

4. Added Indicator:

   • Introduced a 2nd standard deviation moving average to identify maximum reversal points.
   • The recent H12 Bullish Turtle Soup setup (on 8/14 during the CPI release) reached this 2nd deviation moving average, which you are using to gauge supply and demand and adjust your bias.

5. Trade Execution:

   • Went long when the price closed above the 1380 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the 1-minute chart, which was also above the prior H12 Bullish LIS.
   • Adjusted stop-loss strategy to be tighter based on pivot lows rather than session lows to manage risk more effectively.

6. Profit-Taking:

   • Took profit at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband due to insufficient volume expansion towards the expected weekly liquidity draw.

7. Bias and Trend Management:

   • Your trading bias is determined by the overall trend and LIS levels. Significant breaches in these indicators would influence a change in bias.

8. Strategy Effectiveness: Your current strategy has been working well, contributing to a successful week of trading.

This summary highlights your approach to adapting strategies, managing risk, and adjusting based on market conditions and new indicators.

 

 

I woke up late, missed the data, but quickly spotted the way the market was trading.

At this point, the 9:30 session opened with a break below the H12 Bullish LIS, but the momentum was still so strong to the upside, that my moving average held true to the play of the day setup. Up until this point I havent been able to collect any data on the H12 trend shift, vs a contradicting moving average signal telling me not to short H12 LIS break, but long the continuation of the trend. But as my edge, I am primarily focused on trend following trading strategy building. 

I also decided to add a 2nd standard deviation moving average as a maximum reversal point. And the last H12 Bullish Turtle Soup setup that we had was on the CPI release on 8/14. And at that point, it extended all the way to the second deviation moving average (blue line). So I think between 1 and 2 deviation moving average lines, I should be able to have a clear understanding of supply and demand and quickly formulating my bias on each trading day. 

I went long at a close above the moving average from the 1 minute chart 1380 exponential moving average, which was also in confulence with a wick hold back above the prior H12 Bullish LIS. And I initally had my stops at the session low of day, but I think it would be a good adoption to my strategy to manage risk at the tightest stoploss areas based on the 2 timeframes that I am using for entries such as the 1 minute 2 minute and 5 minute charts. I set my stoploss at the pivot low of the displacement move up above the moving average, as I didnt want to risk as much money at the session low or pre market low. And I took profit at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband. Because volume just wasnt really expanding to the upside towards the weekly draw on liquidity like I expected. 

I think its now safe to say that my bias on the trading day cannot be influenced unless all factors point to a directional change, meaning all trends and LIS levels have been breached completely. 

So far, this strategy seems to be working very well, and it was a great week of trading. 

10D 30M Month VWAP, 5D 5M Month VWAP , H12 Bullish LIS, Moving Average Long, Overnight Gap Above Moving Average, PPI,

Key Takeaways from Trading Notes

 

The Swing Trade Worked Perfectly.

 

1. Overnight Gap and Moving Average Deception:

   • The market gapped up overnight, misleading traders who were short from the prior close below the moving average.
   • This created a deceptive trading environment with a close test of the moving average, but it fell short, leading to a cautious stance on taking long trades.

2. Pre-Market Liquidity and Bias:

   • The daily liquidity draw was swept in the premarket, but the continuation to higher levels was unexpected.
   • Short bias was maintained due to this premarket activity, though it was evident that the market was pushing higher.

3. Impact of Economic Data Releases:

   • Data points released at 6 AM and 8:30 AM influenced market movements significantly.
   • The 6 AM data led to a dip to the moving average, presenting a potential long opportunity that was missed.
   • Anticipation of 8:30 AM data led to a preemptive rally, indicating potential insider trading or pre-planned moves.

4. Mistake in Trade Execution:

   • The decision to short at the 5D 5M Month VWAP was based on incorrect signals and missed the optimal long entry opportunity.
   • The market moved against the short position, which was contrary to the signals indicating a bullish trend.

5. Trend Analysis and Signal Alignment:

   • The H6 and H12 candles were trending higher, but a macro reversal attempt was made against the trend.
   • Multiple bullish signals (moving average cross, data point holds, premarket strength, etc.) were ignored in favor of a reversal play.

6. Timeframe and VWAP Bands:

   • Trading the 5D 5M Month VWAP upper band proved to be an inaccurate choice.
   • With 9 trading days from the Month VWAP, a higher timeframe (10D 30M chart) should have been used for better alignment with macro deviations.
   • Future trades should adjust to the appropriate timeframe based on the number of trading days.

7. Lesson and Adaptation:

   • Mistakes were made, but understanding and adapting to these errors is crucial for improving the trading system.
   • Focus should be on refining strategies to avoid similar losing trades and aligning better with market signals.

 

Summary

The trading session revealed several key lessons, including the importance of aligning trades with prevailing trends and macro signals, adapting to appropriate timeframes, and adjusting strategies based on economic data and market behavior. Future trading should incorporate these insights to minimize mistakes and capitalize on clearer signals.

 

 

 

Today I got faked out short, against the overnight gap above the moving average, which decieved short into the close on the prior day, because it actually closed below the moving average. So it was a very sneaky gap up, with a very close test of the moving average on overnight open, but it came up just short, and still had some liquidity left, so I didnt want to take the long at that moment. I was also short biased because the daily draw on liquidity was swept in the premarket, I was unaware at this point that it would continue to reach higher. 

Then we had 2 data points drop, one at 6AM, and PPI at 8:30. From the 6AM data, it flushed down to the moving average which presented the long opportunity of the day. But at this point, we were still trending below the open of the 6AM data, so I didnt want to rush.

I found it quite interesting that the market started ripping higher in anticipation to the 8:30 data. It did feel quite sketchy, almost as if insiders already had the move pre planned. But, both data openings held from the release of PPI. This is why I should not have shorted at the 5D 5M Month VWAP. It gave me the complete wrong signal, and I only took the trade because it was the trade presented to me, since I missed the trade of the day opportunity in the premarket. It was very difficult to have got in an entry on the 9:30 open. At that moment, it felt like you were chasing the market. So the real players got this market long in the premarket before the data release. This goes to show why its importnat to wake up and catch every data piece so that you dont miss any macro moves.

Also, the H6 and H12 candles were clearly trending higher, yet I didnt follow the trend, I attempted to play a macro reversal in the market off of the 5D 5M Month VWAP Upperband. And todays price action absolutely blew right through. 

I basically went against every signal that was clearly giving me a long entry. Between the overnight gap above the moving average, the long moving average cross over signal with a bullish bias. A bullish H12 LIS and H6 trend, the hold of 2 data points which opening prints were never even retested, a bullish premarket and a 9:30 open hold to clear right through the upside liquidity, I think its safe to say that these were many signals in opposition to me, when I was simply just playing an upperband reversal. 

I guess that the moving average bias, line in the sand, and overall flow of the market holds more weight than the macro bands.

ALSO, this may have been the complete innacurate band to have even traded. So far we have traded a total of 9 days from the opening of the Month VWAP, so I really should have been on the 10D 30M chart instead. So now we know in the future, that we have to play the macro deviational VWAP bands when trading outside of the multi day range. More trading days than the timeframe im watching, means I have to go to the next greatest timeframe deviation. 

Mistakes were made on the session. But as long as we adapt to them and refine out trading system, we should be able to slowly chip away at pointless losing trades. 

 

I was just able to locate todays top on the market, and market reversal. I forgot to mark the fibonacci levels from swing points, and todays market reversal in the morning and mid day, both came from the 50% retracement level from the 30D high to low. I have to keep these macro levels in mind when trading.

CPI, Daily FVG, H12 Bearish Engulfing, H12 Bullish LIS, Turtle Soup, Upperband Short, Upperband to Lowerband Short,

Here are the key takeaways from your journaling session, along with a key intention for your next trading day:

 

Regularly update and monitor Fibonacci retracement levels on your charts, incorporating them with other technical indicators and confirmation signals to enhance your trading strategy.

 

Key Takeaways:

1. Market Manipulation Perception: You felt that the market was heavily manipulated today, leading to an unexpected trade outcome. It's crucial to consider this perception and how it might affect your trading strategy and decisions.

2. Gameplan Adherence: You followed your gameplan closely but acknowledged areas for improvement, such as taking some risk off the table and adjusting your trailing stop loss.

3. Volume and Price Action Analysis:

   • Lack of volume expansion following the 8:30 data release was noted.
   • The daily chart structure is still bullish, but there's uncertainty due to the bearish engulfing candle on the 12-hour chart.

4. Risk Management:

   • You identified that taking some profit at key levels (e.g., Daily Upperband) could have reduced downside risk.
   • Raising your stop loss to below the demand area created off your long entry could have helped in managing risk better.

5. Trade Adjustment and Entry Timing:

   • Your initial long entry was based on multiple confirmations, but the price action deviated from your expectations.
   • You recognized the missed opportunity to short at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband, although you didn't expect such a significant retracement.

6. Re-evaluation of Strategies:

   • You are considering implementing a rule to align your trading with the prevailing moving average bias and VWAP bands.
   • There is an intention to develop a Fair Value Gap (FVG) strategy to avoid situations where market manipulation and stops affect your trades.

7. Swing Trade Consideration:

   • You decided to hold the trade as a swing trade despite its initial drawdown, and you are considering implementing a new trading rule based on your experience.

Key Intention for the Next Trading Day:

Focus on Adapting to Market Conditions and Risk Management:

Given today's experiences, your key intention should be to adapt your trading approach to better manage risk and respond to market conditions. This involves:

1. Implementing Adaptive Risk Management:

   • Set tighter stop losses and consider scaling out of positions at key levels to mitigate potential losses.
   • Monitor volume and price action closely to adjust your stop losses dynamically based on market behavior.

2. Aligning with the Trend:

   • Follow your new rule regarding trading in alignment with the moving average bias and VWAP bands. Ensure your trades correspond with the prevailing trend to enhance the probability of success.

3. Developing and Testing New Strategies:

   • Begin working on and backtesting your FVG strategy. Having a well-defined plan for handling market manipulation and price reversals will improve your adaptability.

4. Maintaining Flexibility:

   • Stay flexible and open to adjusting your strategy as market conditions evolve. Be prepared to pivot if the market shows signs of manipulation or if your initial analysis proves incorrect.

By focusing on these areas, you can enhance your risk management, adapt to market conditions more effectively, and improve the consistency of your trading outcomes.

 

 

 

 

8:36. Entered long.

10:37AM. Absolutely shocked that my trade didnt go in my favor today. This market feels so immensely manipulated. But I followed my gameplan to the T. Theres a couple things I could have done better, such as taking some risk off of the table by covering into the Daily 1 minute Upperband. I did find it a bit strange that there wasnt volume expansion to the upside off of the 8:30 data release. And I also could have raised my trailing stoploss below the M1 demand area that was created off of my long price. 

The 12 hour chart experienced a bearish engulfing candle, which is primarily the main timeframe I trade. So theres really not much I could have done analyzing this at the moment. Also, the daily chart structure is still bullish, and could potentially be creating a FVG bottom wick on the current daily candle. But theres really no telling how much lower this can go. I think the only thing I can do is wait for 1PM orderflow, which would be the next 12 hour open candle. 

This was a very interesting trading day. Im still currently in the position because I believe it was likely a swing trade entry. So i decided to hold and the trade is not yet closed. The morning felt manipulated, it turtle souped the 8:30 data lows, which I was given a long signal off of because it wicked the Moving average and the LIS. So there was multiple confirmations to take a long trade. 

I figured because yesterdays journaling session suggested that because I went against the predominanent trend, attempted to trade the Upperband of the 5D 5M Month VWAP, I should make an adjustment and simplify my trading system by only switching bias when I have been in every way shape and form invalidated. Today, when the market went against my position, It was very unfortunate as I felt It was the best position I could get at that moment. But I guess this is just trading, price can go against you apparently at any moment in time regardless of how many checks you have in your favor. 

So there was a trade presented off of the 1D 1Minute VWAP off of the upperband, for an upperband to lowerband short opportunity. This is actually what I expected to happen, because not only was a friend on mine preparing to trade market open shorts, but also because I seen the price action developing around the upperband, and noticed there was a short opportunity present. I just thought it would likely be a fakeout, and if not a fakeout, I didnt imagine price would retrace as much as it did.

One thing I could have done to avoid this was, A. Take off some profit at the 1D upperband to lower my downside risk, because the 1d 1M VWAP was not exanding to the upside, or signaling any trend continuation at that time. B. I could have raised my stoploss to the 1 minute demand area created off of the long entry signal I took from the moving average & LIS. I labelled it 'Could Have Cut Loss Here'. 

I didnt think that a long opportunity would be presented from the open back at the moving average a second time. Because I figured those who traded the data reaction would be the best positioned, or 'early bird gets the worm' type scenario. And i figured that morning shorts would get squeezed out again like the day prior & journaling session suggested. 

But this didnt happen, the stops were ran at the CPI data lows, the daily fair value gap was still trying to find a bid on the lower wick, and the market was way below an area where long confirmation could yet again be established. All I did was re enter at the cross of the moving average, which still got me an extension entry on the lower wick of the daily and 12 hour candle. 

The position went immediately in the money and experienced almost no drawdown, but my price targets were way higher, which is the reason I am still holding the trade as a swing trade. And its the first swing trade I have yet to backtest. 

If it goes in my favor, I will highly consider implementing a new trading rule, which suggests that I can only trade the VWAP band on the 1D 1M chart which corresponds with the prevailing moving average bias. 

For example. If the moving average aligns from the VWAP and lowerband, I will think longs. If the moving average aligns with the VWAP and upperband, I will think short, in order to stay with 'the trend is your friend' theory. 

Other than that, I think the next think I will have to do it create a FVG strategy that I can implement in the future for the daily chart so that I can avoid being turtle souped and stop ran trying to find a bid on the 3rd candle sequence. Because todays lows were heavily manipulated, and the market topped in the middle of nowhere. I couldnt find any orderblocks or levels on the chart to explain why the market reversed so heavily from where it was. The only indication was the upperband on the 1D 1M VWAP. These are all things I will have to implement in my trading strategy in the future. 

5D 5M Month VWAP , M5 Entry Win, VWAP Short,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Session

1. Adaptation to System:

   • Focused on taking positions based on market displacement and direction from the overnight session.
   • Anticipated a shift at the Month VWAP, which influenced the decision to short.

2. Trade Execution:

   • Shorted against the prevailing H6 and H12 trends, aligning with the strategy of trading based on displacement from key levels.
   • The trade did not hit the stop loss (set at the High of Day) and trended below the 9 & 21 EMAs on the 5-minute chart.

3. Drawdown Observations:

   • Experienced drawdown due to a variation shift entry on the 5-minute chart.
   • Despite a winning trade, drawdown occurred, highlighting the need for improved entry strategies.

Key Intention for Tomorrow's Trading Day

1. Backtesting Displacement Areas:

   • Conduct backtesting on displacement areas to identify common themes that lead to successful trades.
   • Focus on how displacement from key levels correlates with winning trades.

2. Refine Entry Strategies:

   • Analyze and fine-tune entry strategies to minimize drawdown.
   • Investigate ways to enhance accuracy in displacement entry points and reduce adverse effects from variation shifts.

3. Data Analysis:

   • Gather and analyze data on how displacement from key levels impacts trade outcomes.
   • Use this analysis to refine strategies and improve overall trading performance.

By focusing on these areas, you can work towards optimizing your trading approach and potentially increase the success rate of your trades.

 

 

 

 

I just followed the adaptation to the system. Which is taking positions based off of displacement and where the market is heading, from the overnight session, I figured that the move would shift at the Month VWAP, and present an opportunity for sellers to get involved. At the moment I shorted, it was against the prevailing H6 and H12 trend, but it appears that displacement from these key levels is a better appraoch thus far, unless the data changes. I took the trade, it never hit stop which was HOD, and it steadily trended below the 9 & 21 EMAS on the 5 minute chart.

My key intention next is to do some backtesting on all of the displacement areas, and try to gather data on common themes that lead to winning trades. Although today was a winning trade, I did experience some drawdown from the variation shift entry on the 5 minute chart, and if I can find ways to fine tune these entries, and avoid as much drawdown as possible, I think that would be a great next step. Finding common entries based on displacement areas off of key levels.

Bearish DATA, H1 Bullish Orderblock, H12 Downtrend, H6 Downtrend, LIS (Bearish), M30 Bullish Orderblock, Orderblock Failure,

Key Takeaways from Today's Losing Trading Day

 

Trading Rule: Bearish Data Drop Confirmation with Retest Verification

Rule Overview: To confirm a bearish market reaction following a significant negative economic data release, ensure that the data drop open price is tested and confirmed on the 15-minute chart before executing trades.

Rule Details:

1. Identify Bearish Data Release:

   • Trigger Event: Detect a significant negative economic data release, such as a large drop in factory orders or other key indicators.
   • Threshold: The decline should be notably worse than market expectations, typically a drop of 3% or more compared to a prior positive trend or consensus forecast.

2. Initial Price Reaction:

   • Open Price Impact: Observe the market's initial reaction to the data release. Note the price level where the data release impact causes a sharp drop.

3. Check 15-Minute Chart Confirmation:

   • Retest Observation: After the initial drop, monitor the 15-minute chart to see if the price retests the open price level where the drop occurred.
   • Retest Confirmation Criteria: For a valid confirmation:
     • Sustained Bearish Trend: Ensure that the retest of the open price is followed by a sustained downward movement.
     • Break of Retest: The price should fail to hold at or above the retest level, showing a clear rejection of higher prices.
     • Volume Confirmation: Look for increased trading volume during the retest and subsequent decline to support the bearish sentiment.

4. Execute Trade:

   • Short Position: If the 15-minute chart confirms the bearish sentiment through sustained downtrend and failed retest, consider entering a short position or trading in line with the bearish outlook.
   • Stop-Loss and Targets: Set appropriate stop-loss levels to manage risk, and define profit targets based on technical analysis from the 15-minute chart.

5. Review and Adjust:

   • Post-Trade Monitoring: Continuously monitor the 15-minute chart after entering the trade to ensure the bearish trend persists and adjust if necessary.
   • Adapt Strategy: Be ready to modify your trading strategy if market conditions change or if new data releases alter the bearish outlook.

Example Scenario:

• Data Release: Factory Orders data shows a -3.3% decline vs. a -3.0% consensus.
• Initial Impact: The price drops sharply following the data release.
• 15-Minute Chart Analysis: Observe the price retesting the drop open price level. Confirm that the price fails to stay above this level, showing a sustained bearish trend with increased volume.
• Action: Enter a short position based on the confirmed bearish sentiment from the 15-minute chart.

---

This updated rule ensures that you not only respond to significant bearish data but also confirm the market’s continued bearish outlook through price action and retest verification on a shorter time frame.

 

1. Premarket Analysis and Entry Decision:

   • Arrived slightly late, catching the bearish Jobs Report data drop.
   • Identified a major decision level, with the market sitting at the final support above a major swing low.
   • Chose the bullish order block with confluence between the H1 and M30 charts.
   • Plan to go long above 18745.50 if the market holds the swing low into the open.
   • Recognized the risk of the trade weakening if the swing low was swept.

2. Initial Long Trade Execution:

   • Entered long but got faked out.
   • Followed the plan and rules despite a significant loss due to high volatility and large stop loss.
   • Encountered a larger loss than usual, impacting the week's overall performance.

3. Trade Analysis and Reflection:

   • Used custom timeframes instead of default timeframes for technical analysis, leading to potential misalignment.
   • The bearish interpretation of the 8:30 data drop acted as a break and retest short entry at VWAP.
   • Extreme volatility led to a large stop loss, resulting in a significant drawdown.
   • Plan to develop a new trading rule to account for data interpretation drops acting as break and retest areas.

4. LIS and Trend Considerations:

   • Attempted a counter-trend trade despite the LIS downtrending.
   • Previous experience with an H6 trend shift against LIS influenced decision-making.
   • Need to wait for a trend shift on the H6 chart to potentially invalidate the LIS in future trades.

5. Monthly Chart and Premarket Insight:

   • Monthly chart began a bearish trend after the overnight draw on liquidity.
   • Trusted a deep swing low outside the default timeframe range, which proved unreliable.
   • Recognized that bullish order flow might not step in until at least 1 PM, but the long entry didn't reverse the trend.

6. Subsequent Trades and Adaptation:

   • Took another loss on a 1-minute chart trade, immediately re-entered, attempting to adapt to a bearish data interpretation setup.
   • Encountered another stop out, indicating market manipulation and volatility.
   • Felt the market was in a "rob your money mode," leading to frustration and the need to step away.

Summary of Lessons and Areas for Improvement

1. Time Management:

   • Ensure timely arrival to the trading desk to allow sufficient premarket analysis.

2. Timeframe Consistency:

   • Stick to default timeframes for technical analysis to avoid misalignment and unreliable setups.

3. Data Interpretation:

   • Recognize the potential for data drops to act as break and retest areas, and adjust strategies accordingly.

4. Trend and LIS Consideration:

   • Avoid counter-trend trades unless there is a clear trend shift on higher timeframes (e.g., H6 chart).

5. Volatility and Risk Management:

   • Be cautious with high volatility periods to avoid excessively large stop losses and significant drawdowns.

6. Emotional Control and Adaptation:

   • Maintain emotional discipline and avoid frustration-driven trades.
   • Develop and adhere to new trading rules based on recent experiences and analysis.

By reflecting on these takeaways, you can refine your trading strategies, enhance your decision-making processes, and improve overall trading performance.

 

 

 

 

(PREMARKET)

8:53AM. Got to the computer slightly late today. But its okay. I was able to catch the recent data drop (Jobs Report) at 8:30AM. Which came as a bearish interpretation.

The market is currently at a crucial spot at a major decision level. Its currently sitting at what I believe to be the final support level in the market above a major swing low. The Bullish Orderblock I have sitting above the currently swing low, has confluence between the H1 and M30 charts. So I decided to keep that as my level. There was a major flush after the data drop. And the market is below the VWAP on the 1D chart. And also has an extremity on the 5D 5M WEEK VWAP. And seems to have confluence with an H1 to M30 hold, currently sitting above the 18745.50 level. That level aligns with the VWAP on the 1D Chart. Aligns with the price action reaction for my bullish orderblock, and also aligns with a reacapture of the lower VWAP Band extremity on the 5D 5M WEEK VWAP. Lastly, a recapture of the 8:30 data drop. 

That is my current gut feeling to take the market long above 18745.50 if the market can hold the swing low into the open

If it runs the swing low SSL, it makes the trade less of a strong signal in my opinion. 

10:06AM: Got faked out long. Ending the week red.

Followed my plan, the entry required a retarted amount of risk on a simple 5 minute candle. Pretty redicules.

I followed my plan, it was fully triggered. Followed every single rule, yet still, I got fucked. 

 

I think if theres any chance for this market to bounce, it will be around 1PM orderflow. 

I had to take a 1 and done trade today, because the stoploss was so big on the M5 entry, that I can keep rolling the dice. Usually I can stop out of a trade with max $100 dollar loss. But again, because of this volatlity, a single 1 trade 5 minute stoploss resulted in a $362 loss, nearly taking away all of the gains from yesterday. 

Had I not taken such a massive $600 loss the other day, I probably would have ended the first week green. But i have to do everything in my power to make sure that I make it to the payout. Everything is on the line. And im doing everything in my power to make it happen. 

I will end week 1 of my performance account, down $212.84

Its not the end of the world, I still have 2054 left in trailing drawdown. 

 

 

(How Could I Have Avoided This Loss)

- I think one of the ways is that, when I was doing technical analysis into the most recent swing low, I was using custom timeframes, instead of the default timeframes. And this swing low, would have needed at least 180D 4H timeframe for confirmation, but I went into the H1 and M30 untapped orderblocks to see if there could be a deep retracement into the swing low. I figured since the draw on liquidity was already swept in the premarket session, and because the swing low was still intact, that if the market V shaped, as it did, then it would result in a green trade

- The 8:30 data drop had a bearish interpretation. 

Although i really do feel robbed on this trade, because I set my entry at what I believed was full confirmation, for a reversal of the data drop. The data drop actually held as a break and retest short entry at the VWAP, at the exact moment where I went long.

And because of the extreme volatility in the markets, my 5 minute candle entry, was literally a 200 point stop, over the top risk. But it moved up so quickly and decisively, and closed outside the extremity range lowerband on the 5D 5M WEEK VWAP, that i really anticipated a higher move. For now I will have to wait for the ending of the trading session to see where the trade of the day was and how I could have spotted it. As of now, it feels I got long at the short entry trade of the day.

But even when analyzing that short, I dont see how I could have capitalized on it other than waiting for the bullish to bearish variation on the 1 Minute chart, as a price action reaction to where the trade signaled that I should get long. The move feels manipulated at the moment. 

Overall, I will have to develop a new trading rule based off of this concept of bearish or bullish data interpretation drops.

That they can act as break and retest areas, rather than A side trend setups depending on the interpretation

- The LIS was still downtrending. So it was a counter trend trade.

This was difficult for me to trust, because yesterday, the LIS was uptrending, yet there was an H6 trend shift against the LIS, which resulted in a green trade for me, because I stayed with the orderflow of the H6 trend instead. 

What I did wrong today was, not waiting for the trend shift on the H6 chart, to potentially invalidate the LIS. So, I will have to develop a new trading rule off of this concept to avoid losses again in the future. 

- The Monthly Chart began a bearish trend at the break of the draw on liquidity from the overnight.

This one is also tricky, because although the draw on liquidity was reached in the overnight, the deep swing low was still intact which I trusted. But again, I probably shouldnt have trusted it because it was outside of the default timeframe range. 

- The Premarket suggested that bullish orderflow wouldnt step in until at least 1PM

Again, tricky. I thought my long entry could reverse it. But it didnt. And its probably because the H6 trend didnt reverse into the LIS. 

 

11:45AM: Just took another loss, immediate stopout on 1 Minute Chart. I immediately re entered (11:49AM)

This is a bearish data interpretation, Break & Retest, 1D VWAP short setup, the same that was presented at the open.

The trade I got faked out on, on the open, was this same setup, so I guess I will play the opposite side and take the trade that stopped me out. If it doesnt work, that would mean I have been faked out both ways, and taking a setup that resulted in a loss before. Theres simply nothing I can do if it doesnt work. I am trying to adapt.

11:58AM: stopped out.

Now the trade I took in the morning is working, break of the extremity on the M5 chart. With the M5 staying intact, and the M1 stopout at the VWAP bullish to bearish variation. I seriously have to step away. The market is literally in rob your money mode. Criminal activity taking place.