1D M1 VWAP, 1D M2 VWAP, H12 Bearish LIS, H6 Bearish Trend, Lower DOL, M1 Entry, M2 Entry Loss, Mo Bearish Trend Shift, VWAP Short,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trade of the Day Setup

1. Trend and LIS Analysis:

   • Entered a long trade during a setup that should have been taken in the opposite direction.
   • Misalignment due to the H6 trend not flipping, which is crucial for counter-trend trades into the H12 LIS.
   • The trade would not have been executed if the H6 trend flip was awaited, avoiding the incorrect long entry.

2. Timeframe and Execution:

   • The trade of the day setup played out on the 1D 1M VWAP middle band, suitable for 1-minute and 2-minute chart execution.
   • Chose the 5D 5M WEEK VWAP for the trade based on a prior successful trade at the upper band extremity.
   • Misjudged the lower band extremity as a high possibility for a swing low hold and bounce.

3. Volatility and Price Action:

   • Experienced tricky price action with significant volatility.
   • The draw on liquidity was lower following the monthly trend shift, which should have been factored into the analysis.

Adjustments and Rule Implementations

1. Counter-Trend Trade Rule:

   • New Trading Rule: To execute a counter-trend move into the H12 LIS, the H6 trend must be counter-trend to the H12 directional bias/trend.
   • This rule ensures alignment and avoids premature counter-trend entries.

2. Trend Confirmation:

   • Always wait for trend confirmation on the H6 chart before executing trades against the prevailing H12 trend.
   • This confirmation helps in avoiding trades that go against the overall market direction.

3. Timeframe Consistency:

   • Execute trades on appropriate timeframes that align with the identified setup (e.g., 1D 1M VWAP middle band for 1-minute and 2-minute charts).
   • Avoid using custom or less relevant timeframes that could lead to misalignment and increased risk.

4. Price Action and Volatility Consideration:

   • Factor in recent trend shifts and the potential impact on price action and liquidity draws.
   • Stay cautious of tricky price action and avoid making trades based on assumptions without confirmation.

Summary of Adjustments and New Rules

1. New Trading Rule:

   • For counter-trend trades into the H12 LIS, the H6 trend must be counter-trend to the H12 directional bias/trend.

2. Trend Confirmation:

   • Wait for H6 trend confirmation before taking trades against the prevailing H12 trend.

3. Timeframe Consistency:

   • Use the appropriate timeframes for trade execution based on the identified setup.
   • Avoid relying on custom or less relevant timeframes.

4. Price Action Awareness:

   • Be aware of recent trend shifts and their impact on liquidity and price action.
   • Exercise caution in volatile markets and avoid trades based on unconfirmed assumptions.

By implementing these adjustments and rules, you can improve your trading accuracy, avoid misaligned trades, and enhance your overall trading performance.

 

 

 

 

Today we took a long at the exact moment this 'Trade Of The Day' Setup played out. So i got in the wrong direction at the exact moment I should of went the other way.

The reasons I think I got this trade wrong, was mainly because, the H6 trend never flipped, which seems to me now, to be a major factor with my H12 LIS thesis.

***NEW TRADING RULE***

In order to play a counter trend move into the H12 LIS, going against the prevailing directional bias as we state in our 'Line In The Sand', the H6 trend must be counter trend to the H12 directional bias/trend.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I believe if I had waited for the H6 trend to flip, it would have kept me out of the long side trade, because the long order would have never got filled, and I could have located the counter direction move and looked for levels and opportunites according to it. 

The trade panned out on the 1D 1M VWAP middleband. And the trade could have been executed on both a 1 minute & 2 minute chart.

I executed the trade on a 5D 5M WEEK VWAP, because the prior day, I had an amazing trade that came from the upperband extremity, and today we were trading the lowerband extremity, and I thought there was a high possibility that the swing low would hold, and that we would bounce. It was very tricky price action. 

And the draw on liquidity was lower after the monthly trend shifted. 

4D 5M WEEK VWAP Upperband Extremity, H1 Bearish Orderblock, H1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, H6 Bearish Trend, LIS Target (Bearish), Lower DOL, M5 Bearish Confirmation Close , M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Positioned Shorts Key Level,

For some reason, this journal isnt letting me manually tag the trading patterns for todays setup, so I will type them below vvv

(PATTERNS)

- 4D 5M WEEK VWAP Upperband Extremity

- M5 Bearish Confirmation Close Level Marked for 'Positioned Shorts)

- M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation Price Action (REACTION) at key level of interest (Same Timeframe)

- Bearish Tape on Time & Sales at key level (Above 10 contracts)

- Overnight H1 Bearish Orderblock & H1 Price Action REACTION response, validating the M5 Bearish Confirmation Close Level

- Weak Pre Market Low

- Lower Draw On Liquidity

- H6 Premarket Bearish Trend Shift

- Trend Below 1D VWAP Lowerband

 

 

Trade Analysis and Summary:

Key Points from the Notes:

• Pre-Market Analysis:

  • Woke up early: Ensured readiness before key data drops.
  • Mixed overnight session: Close to an H1 Order Block (ODB) level but not fully tapped.
  • H12 Uptrend: The Level of Interest (LIS) sits at 19344.25.
  • New monthly candle: Opens with a slightly bullish trend from the previous month.
  • Sell signal on WEEK VWAP Upper Band: Noted potential short opportunity if the signal holds.

• New Trading Rule:

  • If a setup goes past the level of interest, the trade is invalidated.

• Data Drop (Jobless Claims):

  • Bearish interpretation due to increased jobless claims.

• Main Trade Idea:

  • Sweep of the PMH into an untapped M30 Bearish Order Block, aligning with WEEK VWAP Upper Band.
  • H12 LIS: Awareness that the trade idea goes against the H12 LIS but aligns with the H6 bearish trend.

• Trading Execution:

  • Gut feeling: Bears in control due to trading below the overnight mean.
  • First trade: Stopped out but identified manipulation and re-entered with confirmation.
  • Second trade: Successful entry with confirmation of A-side setup and multiple confluences.
  • Result: Ended with a P/L of $419.

Analysis:

1. Pre-Market Preparation:

   • Thorough preparation by analyzing multiple timeframes and potential trade setups.
   • Clear identification of key levels and order blocks.
   • Integration of a new trading rule to avoid invalid trades.

2. Data Interpretation:

   • Correctly interpreted jobless claims data as bearish, influencing the decision to lean towards short trades.

3. Trade Execution:

   • First Trade: Identified manipulation and quickly adapted by re-entering with a better setup.
   • Second Trade: Followed all criteria for an A+ trade, including confirmation on the same timeframe and trailing the trade to lock in profits.

4. Risk Management:

   • Effective use of stop losses based on recent swing highs.
   • Managed to keep losses minimal on the first trade and maximize gains on the second.

5. Outcome and Reflection:

   • Overall successful trading day with a solid profit.
   • Identified the reasons for success, including proper analysis, following the new rule, and waiting for confirmations.

Conclusion:

Combining the Data Drops:

• Jobless Claims: Bearish due to higher-than-expected claims, indicating potential labor market weakness.
• Productivity and Costs: Bullish due to significant productivity gains and lower unit labor costs, indicating economic strength and controlled inflation.

Net Outlook:

• Despite the bearish jobless claims data, the productivity and costs data provide a stronger positive outlook. This suggests an overall bullish sentiment, particularly in terms of economic growth and inflation control.

Trade Reflection:

• The successful trade execution against the H12 LIS worked due to multiple confluences and adherence to the new rule.
• This trade likely represented the "Trade of the Day" due to its alignment with identified setups and successful execution.

By combining thorough pre-market analysis, disciplined execution, and effective risk management, you were able to capitalize on the day's trading opportunities successfully.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8:06 AM. Woke up early this morning. We have some data dropping in a half hour, also 9:45 & 10AM data as well. The overnight is mixed. Coming a few ticks away from an H1 ODB I market out yesterday, and never came back to tag it. I would prefer if the level was actually hit to play it. Sometime I feel like when levels are barely touched like that, they can act as manipulations to play the opposite way. So if Im going to contemplate going short OTD, I think it will be best for the current PMH (which is ticks away from the first H1 ODB) & of many other bearish ODB's, to be swept so that the liquidity can first be cleared.

We are also in an H12 uptrend, and the LIS currently sits at 19344.25. Because of the other days new rule implementation, I began drawing uptapped supply and demand levels near the LIS. And the only one that remains at this moment, is an untapped M1 demand area right above the LIS. 

This is also the first day of a new month. August 1st, so the new monthly candle opens today, and the prior month was able to maintain a slightly bullish trend, with a higher high and higher low. Also, holding at the untapped Month Bullish Orderblock, which lined up in confluence with the 90D low to high 61.8% fibonacci. 

On the 4D 5 Minute chart, WEEK VWAP. It is currently giving us a sell signal at the top of the range and Upper Band. Theres a chance that the sell signal has already been first because the 4D 5Minute chart Upperband has been sold into and closed below. Prior to a slight trend above. But the trade idea I like most at the moment is a sweep of the PMH, to tap into the untested bearish orderblocks, and wait for the timeframe confirmation & reaction.

***** NEW RULE *****

If the A side of a setup & reaction of a trade, goes past the level of interest from the highest high, or lowest low (depending on if its a short trade or long trade) than the setup is invalidated. 

For example; If Im looking for a short trade at a key level, and that specific level requires an H1 entry confirmation & reaction, but the H1 chart continues trending higher, past the key level of interest, if an H1 bar is created with low that is ABOVE the key level of interest, than the trade is invalidated. The H1 low MUST maintain below the key level of interest, to signal a price action response that there is actual selling pressure stepping in to keep the bar below the level. And if the bullish to bearish variation takes place, creating an A side setup, on the right side of the ^, than that is multiple confirmations for a trading entry. 

8:43 AM: The 8:30 DATA drop (JOBLESS CLAIMS) just came out, with an increase in the overall number of jobless claims, which is a bearish interpretation. 

8:54AM. The main trade that I am looking for OTD is a sweep of the PMH, into the untapped M30 Bearish Orderblock, which would be in confluence with an overextending on the 4D 5Minute WEEK VWAP Upperband. The only thing is this thesis goes against the H12 LIS, but the H6 trend has shifted bearish, so I think there is a chance that this can come back to test the LIS.

My gut is telling me that long side plays wont be as easy or feasible OTD, as we are currently trading below the mean of the overnight. Which is currently telling me that bears are in control. 

11:12AM. Wonderful, amazing trading day. I ended the day with a total P/L of $419 dollars. As I stated just before this, I had a gut feeling that shorts would play out OTD. It seems that the early 9:30 shorts got too eager, and were squeezed at the PML, although the alert was never triggered below the PML. 

When I looked at the 4D 5M WEEK VWAP, I noticed that during the overnight session, we were trading above the VWAP Upperband, suggesting an Overextenstion/Extremity to the upside from yesterdays move. So I decided to market the 'Overnight Short Close M5' level, as it was the first level to close below the Upperband, suggesting that would have been an ideal short entry from the overnight, and also suggesting that shorts were positioned at that exact level of 19631.75. Because of this, I took my time at the opening, simply getting a feel for price action, by marking alerts as the price action developed, from the trend analysis perspective, and draw on liquidity perspective. 

I saw at the start of the trading session that the 1D VWAP could have played against the 4D M5 VWAP, because we were trading towards the lowerband, but I took the birds eye view & larger timeframe analysis, and gave it more weight. 

The first trade I entered, was stopped out, it felt a bit manipulated, but it cleared the gap to the M5 bearish orderblock that was created from the confirmation move, instead of the confirmation close level, so with a micro mistake, I was stopped out of the first trade, but got in a second time, when the A side setup was still presented at that level, with M5 lows holding below the key level, and getting a bullish to bearish variation A side setup, as my new rule suggests. Stops at the most recent swing high prior to the move, and I took it to the next draw on liquidity which was the M1 demand created off of the LIS.

Today, trading against the LIS happened to work. It was a counter trend trade before the full confirmation, but thats because I had multiple confluence confirmations to trade against it, and back to the daily mean. 

11:25AM. As it currently stands, but LIS was broken, creating a technical downtrend unless proven otherwise. 

 

***Overall***

The reasons why this trade worked

- I Identified a macro extremity on the 4D 5M WEEK VWAP

- I saw overnight confirmation of a break and close below the VWAP Upperband

- I marked the close of the M5 candle, in the same timeframe used to spot the trade, as where 'shorts are positioned'

- I waited for the A side setup, and price action confirmation on the same timeframe used to spot the trade

- I followed the trend and indentified the likely area for price to reach towards, whcih was the H12 LIS in confluence with the 4D 5M WEEK VWAP middleband

- Trailed the trade on the same timeframe I entered 'M5" to lock in profits incase of a reversal (which didnt happen)

- Let it hit my take profit

All of this meets the criteria for an A+ trade, and I think I likely hit the 'Trade Of The Day' setup. We will know by the end of the day. 

 

2:14PM. I just noticed, todays win was a major adaptation to the $600 loss from the other day. It wasnt the exact same setup, in terms of opening between the middle and upper VWAP band, but it was a fake break higher with a nasty short opportunity off of a bearish orderblock. Money trades today baby.

Bullish Premarket, FOMC Day, Long Flip Trade, long flip trade off opening move, price action trading, uptrend,

Refined Trade Entry Notes

Trade Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Status: CLOSED
• Portfolio(s): APEX PA ACCOUNT 50K
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 31, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Long
• Pattern(s): Bullish Premarket, FOMC Day, Long Flip Trade, Long Flip Trade Off Opening Move, Price Action Trading, Uptrend

Notes

9:02 AM:

• NASDAQ V-shaped recovery of over 450 points from yesterday's drop.
• Yesterday's drop led to a $600 loss.
• Currently hovering at the top of the 1D Week VWAP.
• Uncertain about a trade due to mixed signals across charts.
• Decision to trade only with a confirmed trend and taking it slow.

10:06 AM:

• Took a loss off the open and flipped the trade to long.
• Observing price movement, with VWAP expanding to the upside on the 1D VWAP.
• Top band sitting at 19511.50.
• 30D high to low Fibonacci 38.2% level at 19588, which is the main target for this long.
• Good risk/reward to the upside if the 9:30 AM low on the M5 candle holds for the session.

Reasoning for the Flip Trade:

• Analyzed mistakes from the previous day, particularly the inability to give up bias.
• Noticed that flipping the trade upon initial invalidation on M5 could have allowed riding the trend of the day.
• Adapted to market conditions by flipping the trade.
• Following today's H12 LIS trend, unlike the previous day.
• Despite being at the top of the range, anticipated a squeeze on shorts as longs were affected yesterday.

Chart Patterns:

• M5, M15, and M30 charts all failed off the open but were reclaimed.
• Long add was a repeat of the pattern, with an average price between the first and second long trades.
• Stopped out breakeven by a manipulation move right before FOMC.

Key Takeaways

1. Market Observation:

   • Acknowledge significant market moves, such as the 450-point V-shaped recovery.
   • Be aware of current VWAP positions and significant Fibonacci levels.

2. Trade Adaptation:

   • Analyze and learn from previous trading mistakes.
   • Be willing to flip trades when initial bias is invalidated.
   • Follow the dominant trend (e.g., H12 LIS trend) to align with market conditions.

3. Entry and Exit Criteria:

   • Enter trades based on reclaimed failed patterns on multiple timeframes (M5, M15, M30).
   • Use VWAP bands and Fibonacci levels to determine potential targets and risk/reward scenarios.
   • Maintain flexibility in trading strategy, especially on volatile days like FOMC days.

4. Emotional Management:

   • Avoid being emotionally influenced by previous losses.
   • Focus on the current market conditions and adapt strategies accordingly.

5. Risk Management:

   • Ensure appropriate position sizing.
   • Be prepared to adjust trading strategies and targets based on evolving market conditions.

By following these refined notes and key takeaways, you can enhance your trading strategies and decision-making processes, improving your ability to adapt to changing market conditions and minimize losses.

 

 

 

 

9:02AM. Well, somehow the NASDAQ has managed to V shape over 450 points from yesterdays drop, which actually pisses me off, because yesterdays drop was meaningless, and I got robbed of $600 dollars. But, once again, we are hovering at the top of the 1D Week VWAP, and im really unsure of a trade at this point. Im going to have to take it slow. Im really thinking I wont trade until I have a confirmed trend. And there is mized signals across charts.

10:06AM: I took a loss off of the open and simply flipped the trade, sitting in it right now just watching price. Currently VWAP expaning to the upside on the 1D VWAP. Top band is sitting at 19511.50. And the 30D high to low fibonacci 38.2% is sitting at 19588, which is my main target on this long. Would be very good risk reward to the upside if the 9:30 low off of the M5 candle holds for the session.

I decided to do a flip trade because yesterday when I was analyzing where I went wrong, with the inability to give up my bias, I noticed had I flipped when I was first ivalidated on M5, I could have rode the trend of the day. So im simply just trying to adapt to conditions. I also went against yesterdays H12 LIS trend, today Im going with it. Its an uncomfortable long being im at the complete top of the range, but I feel they are going to suqeeze shorts today, as the fked longs yesterday. 

The M5, M15 & M30 charts all failed off of the open & were reclaimed, so the long add I took was a repeat of that pattern, and my average price was in between my first and second long trades, where I was stopped out breakeven by a manipulation move right before FOMC. 

H12 Bearish LIS, M1 Bearish Orderblock, M15 Bearish Orderblock, M15 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M30 Bearish Orderblock, M30 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M5 Bearish Orderblock, M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, No VWAP Extremity, Playbook , Trade Of The Day , wrong bias otd,

Refined Notes

Loss Analysis and Key Takeaways

$600 Loss Overview:

• Missed a massive supply zone near the H12 LIS (Line in the Sand).
• The supply zone ran through M1, M5, M15, and M30 order blocks from the LIS.

Technical Analysis Improvement:

• New Rule: Mark untapped supply and demand areas on the H12 lines in the sand, highs, and lows to avoid missing future entries.
• Cannot solely rely on VWAP Band extremities or the first VWAP area when the market opens in the middle of nowhere.

Entry Criteria and Strategy Adjustment

Order Block Analysis:

• Mark Prevalent Order Blocks: In the direction of the LIS, identify and mark the most relevant order blocks.
• Timeframe Correlation:
  • For each order block, wait for the reaction on the corresponding timeframe.
  • Example:
    • For an M30 order block, wait for an M30 reaction.
    • For an M15 order block, wait for a 15-minute reaction.
    • This applies similarly to M5, M1, etc.
  • Enter only when the price action reaction aligns with the order block's timeframe.

Chart Adjustments:

• Immediately start marking order blocks on charts to avoid relying solely on VWAP bands.

End of Session Reflection:

• The session ended with a bounce from the prior daily order block.
• This bounce was in confluence with:
  • 90-day 61.8% Fibonacci level.
  • Monthly ODB (Order Block).

Fibonacci Confirmation:

• 90D Model Layout:
  • Use the 90D Fibonacci with the 180 H4 default timeframe, which encompasses the swing low to high.
  • Use H4 confirmation to take trades.

By implementing these refined strategies and rules, future trades can be more accurately executed, reducing the likelihood of missing significant market signals and enhancing overall trading performance.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

So I had a $600 loss today, and I just had to go over it with a fine tooth comb and see what I missed. And clearly enough, There was a massive supply zone near the H12 LIS that I completely missed, and that ran from the M1, M5, M15 & M30 Orderblocks from the LIS. 

So from now on, when I am doing technical analysis. Any H12 lines in the sand, Highs & Lows, I will now mark the untapped Supply & Demand areas, so that I wont miss another entry like the one provided today. Because clearly, I cant just solely rely on the VWAP Band extremities, or the first area of VWAP to play off of first when the market opens in the middle of nowhere.

The rule will be that I will mark the most prevalent orderblocks in the direction of the LIS, but the orderblock timeframe, must correlate with the price action reaction entry model.

So for example, if we have an M30 Orderblock, we wait for the M30 reaction, If we have a M15 Orderblock, we wait for the 15 minute reaction, same applies to the 5M, 1M etc. Any orderblock that we play, must have correlating timeframe price action reaction to enter. I will have to start putting these on my charts immediately so that I dont just solely rely on the bands. 

So the session today ended with a bounce of the prior daily orderblock. Also in confluence with the 90D 61.8% fibonacci & Month ODB For this fibonacci confirmation, since I do not yet have a layout for a 90D model, I will use the 90D fibonacci, with the 180 H4 default timeframe, since it is the next timeframe up that encompasses the swing low to high. And I will use an H4 confirmation to take the trade. 

DOL higher reversal, H12 Bearish LIS, M1 Entry Loss, M15 Entry Loss, M2 Entry Loss, M30 Entry Loss, M5 Entry Loss, Prior Day Untapped LowerBand Failure, Volume Increasing On Open, VWAP failure, VWAP Lowerband Failure,

Key Points from Notes (Refined)

Trading Session Reflection (11:39 AM)

• Massive Loss: Significant red day with a large blow to the account.
• False Signals: Every buy signal received was a false signal.
• Market Behavior: Market dropped unexpectedly with expanding volume on the open.
• Liquidity Draw: The draw on liquidity higher was the next H12 candle high.
• VWAP: Prior day untapped Lowerband on the daily VWAP did not provide a bounce; even premarket movement was manipulated.
• Rule-Breaking:
  • Did not follow the sizing plan (only 1 micro).
  • Did not adhere to the M5 chart trading timeframe plan.
  • Ignored the rule of moving to the next higher timeframe when incorrect on a trade.
  • Resulted in a loss bigger than it should have been.
• Psychological Impact: Felt market was excessively extended to the downside, leading to larger positions.
• Future Considerations:
  • May switch to trading the S&P500 due to NASDAQ volatility.
  • Need to decrease risk on trailing drawdown until recovery.
  • Wider stop losses required when moving to the next higher timeframe.

Loss Analysis and Future Strategy (3:10 PM)

• Persistent Failures: 30M and H1 long signals also failed; unprecedented failure of long signals throughout the day.
• OTD Analysis: Need to analyze how to anticipate such trades in the future.
• Key Observations:
  • H12 bearish LIS (Line in the Sand) to start the trading session was the only indication of a sell-off.
  • Typically expect a run on the LIS to the upside first, followed by a sell-off, which did not happen today.
• Signal Grouping: To prevent future false signals:
  • Short Term Timeframes: 2 Minute, 5 Minute, 15 Minute.
  • Medium Term Timeframes: 30 Minute, 1 Hour, 2 Hour.
  • Long Term Timeframes: 4 Hour, 6 Hour, 12 Hour.
  • Rule: If 3 losses are taken in a row on the same trade idea within any timeframe grouping, stop trading for the day or change the trading thesis.

Additional Reflection (12:52 PM)

• Market Movement: Reached the lower weekly DOL and continued towards the lower prior monthly DOL.

Refined Entry Criteria for Using the Middle VWAP Band

1. Market Context:

   • Range-Bound Market: Use the middle VWAP band for potential mean reversion trades.
   • Trending Market: Avoid using the middle VWAP band as a primary entry point in strong trends.

2. Volume Confirmation:

   • Look for significant volume around the middle VWAP band to confirm the strength of support or resistance.

3. Time Frame Alignment:

   • Ensure the middle VWAP band aligns with support/resistance levels on higher time frames.

4. Price Action Signals:

   • Use candlestick patterns like pin bars, engulfing patterns, or inside bars at the middle VWAP band to confirm potential reversals or continuations.

5. Additional Indicators:

   • Combine the middle VWAP band with indicators such as RSI, Moving Averages, or Bollinger Bands to filter out false signals.

Entry Signals

1. Volume and Price Action:

   • Volume Spike: Look for a spike in volume coinciding with the price reaching the middle VWAP band.
   • Candlestick Patterns: Monitor for bullish or bearish reversal patterns at the middle VWAP band.

2. Multi-Time Frame Analysis:

   • Ensure the middle VWAP band aligns with support/resistance levels or trendlines on higher time frames.

3. Indicator Confirmation:

   • RSI Divergence: Look for RSI divergence at the middle VWAP band.
   • MACD Crossover: A MACD crossover near the middle VWAP band can signal a potential entry point.

4. VWAP Band Interaction:

   • First Test: Give more weight to the first test of the middle VWAP band after a significant move.
   • Multiple Time Frames: Confirm that the middle VWAP band is respected on multiple time frames.

Example Trade Setup

1. Price Approaches Middle VWAP Band:

   • Volume increases, indicating potential support/resistance.
   • A bullish pin bar forms at the middle VWAP band on the 5-minute chart.

2. Confirmation from Higher Time Frames:

   • The 15-minute chart shows the middle VWAP band aligns with a previous support level.
   • RSI on the 5-minute chart shows bullish divergence.

3. Additional Indicator Confirmation:

   • MACD crossover on the 5-minute chart supports the bullish reversal.

4. Entry:

   • Enter a long position as the next candle confirms the bullish pin bar.
   • Set a stop loss just below the middle VWAP band and the recent swing low.
   • Set a profit target based on risk/reward ratio or at the next VWAP band level (top band).

By refining your criteria and combining multiple signals, you can enhance the reliability of using the middle VWAP band in your trading strategy. This approach helps filter out false signals and increases the probability of successful trades.

 

 

 

 

11:39AM. Massive fucking red day, massive blow to the account, every single buy signal I got was a false signal. Market dropped in the center of nowhere, volume was expanding on the open, the draw on liquidity higher was the next H12 candle high. Complete fucking joke of a day, and honestly. I dont even know what I would do differently. 

Prior day untapped Lowerband on the daily VWAP didnt provide a bounce at all, it did slightly in the premarket but even that move was manipulated. 

I also broke many many rules, almost didnt follow anything. Didnt follow my sizing plan. of only 1 micro. Didnt follow my timeframe plan, of only trading the M5 chart. didnt follow my rule of going to the next timeframe higher when Im incorrect on a trade. Loss is way bigger than it should have been. It just felt like the market is so overexaggeratedly extended to the downside that it was baiting me into bigger size. 

But because of this massive false signal, and the loss of almost half my drawdown. I may switch to trading the S&P500 tomorrow because its less volatile. I simply cannot afford to trade NASDAQ if its going to move this much. Its moved -360 points to the downside somehow. And with the timeframe stoplosses that I require, I have to decrease my risk on my trailing drawdown until I get out of this hole. 

The issue is that if I follow the rule of going to the next higher timeframe, then I have a way wider stop with the bigger candles. I would have taken a massive hit on the M15 short long extry signal because the next candle was completely engulfed. 

as it stands right now, we are going to need at least 30M confirmation to take any longs on nasdaq in the future. This loss on the day was completely unacceptable, and we have to do everything we can to make sure this doesnt happen again.

3:10PM Just came back to my trading journal to write under this statement ^^^^^^. The 30M long signal also failed. As well as the H1 long signal. This is unprecedented, virtually every long signal on the day for me failed. So the most important thing I will need to do OTD is go back to figure out how I could have anticipated this trade

The only tell that this trade would sell off OTD for me currently is the H12 bearish LIS to start the trading session. The only issue with this, is that in the past, we have usually seen a run on the LIS to the upside first. and then come down. Thats the type of move I was anticipating today, a move higher from open, until 1PM sell side was offered. I was not anticipating this heavy of a drop from open. And it basically was like trying to buy the next floor and taking an elevator down everytime. 

In order to prevent this many false signals again in the future, we will group the trade signals

(Short Term Timeframes)

- 2 Minute

- 5 Minute

- 15 Minute

(Medium Term Timeframes)

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If 3 losses are taken in a row on the same trade idea within this timeframe grouping. I must stop trading on the day, or change the trading thesis.

12:52PM. It just reached the lower weekly DOL and is still continuing to head for the lower prior monthly DOL. 

1D VWAP UpperBand to Lowerband, 2D 5M VWAP (Month), H12 Bullish Trend, LIS Hold, M2 Entry Loss, M5 Entry Win, VWAP (MONTH), VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Analysis for July 29, 2024

Trade Details

• Published: July 29, 2024, 7:41 p.m.
• Status: CLOSED
• Portfolio(s): APEX PA ACCOUNT 50K
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 29, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 1D VWAP UpperBand to Lowerband
  • 2D 5M VWAP (Month)
  • H12 Bullish Trend
  • LIS Hold
  • M2 Entry Loss
  • M5 Entry Win
  • VWAP Upperband short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Notes

10:08 AM:

• Initial Trades:
  • Took two small losses off the opening.
  • M2 chart failed on the first sell signal.
  • First trade: A bit of a chase after closing below 19260 (prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband). Should have considered the 1D Lowerband on the session and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP.
  • No red bar closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart, hence no full confirmation of a continuation selloff.
  • Second trade: 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart; correct theory but did not work out.
  • Decision: Focus on the M5 timeframe that worked today.

11:06 AM:

• Current Trade:
  • Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP.
  • Unsure about holding duration but targeting 19030 (an aggressive target).
  • Following the rule of using a lower timeframe entry, then moving to the next higher timeframe if needed.
  • M5 chart was the successful timeframe for the day.

2:58 PM:

• End of Day Analysis:
  • Mentally taxing day, watched position return to breakeven and waited for hours for a drop.
  • Should have covered at the first test of the 2D Month VWAP upperband.
  • Trading with 1 contract made it harder to respect covers.
  • Need to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades with 1 contract.
  • Could have avoided the loss and been up $200 by waiting for the M5 chart instead of M2.
  • Sign trade was going against me: reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift and squeeze of the H12 LIS at 19168.
  • Battle between shorts holding the HOD and longs holding the LOD, with M5 entries from both HOD and LOD holding.

Things Done Right

1. Adaptability: Adjusted to M5 chart after M2 chart trades failed.
2. Stoploss Management: Adhered to stoploss rules and moved up the timeframe for a more reliable signal.
3. Trade Management: Held position with a clear understanding of the trade's setup and signals.
4. Recognition of Patterns: Identified the importance of different VWAP bands and levels in trade decisions.

Things Done Wrong

1. Target Setting: Had an overly aggressive target for the day; should have considered closer profit-taking points.
2. Trade Size Management: Took on too much size with one contract, leading to difficulty in managing the trade.
3. Initial Trade Chasing: First trade was a bit of a chase and not fully confirmed by signals.
4. Timeframe Selection: Initial reliance on M2 chart led to losses; should have waited for M5 signals.

What to Continue Doing

1. Using Higher Timeframes: Continue using higher timeframes for confirmation when lower timeframe signals fail.
2. Adhering to Stoploss Rules: Keep following strict stoploss rules to manage risk.
3. Analyzing Signals: Maintain thorough analysis of entry and exit signals across different timeframes.
4. Journal Keeping: Continue detailed journaling to track performance and learn from each trade.

What to Avoid

1. Overly Aggressive Targets: Avoid setting targets that are too far away; consider more achievable profit-taking points.
2. Large Position Sizes: Avoid taking large positions that are difficult to manage, especially when only trading with one contract.
3. Trade Chasing: Avoid chasing trades without full confirmation of signals.
4. Ignoring Confirmations: Avoid ignoring important confirmations on higher timeframes that contradict lower timeframe signals.

By focusing on these aspects, you can improve your consistency and profitability while avoiding common pitfalls.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

10:08AM: Took 2 papercuts off the opening, M2 chart failed on the first sell signal, im am now taking a M5 sell signal. The first trade I took, was kind of a chase, because we closed below a key level I had at 19260, which was the prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband. I thought because we closed below that level, we would see a continuation selloff. But I should have payed more attention to the 1D Lowerband on the session, and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP. There was no red bar that closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart. So there was no full confirmation of a continuation selloff. The second trade I took, was a 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart, which was the correct theory, just didnt work out. This is why I came to the conclution that tomorrow I will focus on the timeframe that worked today, which was M5

11:06AM: I am currently up on the trade. Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP. Im not exactly sure yet on how long I should be holding this, but sell side liquidity grabs seem to be in play. My ultimate target on the day I guess is 19030. But that is an extremely aggressive target.

It worked very well for me to follow the rule of a stoploss with a lower timeframe entry, when unwilling to give up the same trade idea, just gradually move to the next timeframe higher. It lowers trade frequency, expands the range/scope of the move, and requires more confirmation. But M5 chart was most certainly the winner for the day.

2:58PM: im officially done trading OTD. Very Very mentally taxing first trading day. Watched my entire position come back to breakeven, and wait literally hours for the same drop. Should have covered from the first test of the 2D Month VWAP from the upperband, being I was only trading with 1 contract. This is the difficult part of only utilizing 1 contract. I dont respect covers as much. Its must easier for me to exit a full position when I have at least 2 contracts. 

The main thing I did wrong today was being too far out on my target. The fact that I was playing the Month 2D VWAP, shouldve required me to take profit at the first VWAP test. Instead of going for the prior day band low at 19031.97 which was a 1D M1 Lower Band Target.

With that being said, I think trading 1 contract is going to require me to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades, Its going to be very difficult to catch full top to bottom band moves with only 1 contract. 

Also, I could have avoided todays loss, and been up around 200 OTD only trading 1 micro contract, if I just waited for the turn of the M5 chart instead od M2. I will go into tomorrows trading session with that in mind.

Another sign that the trade was going to go against me was the reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift. It was holding below, but then squeezed the H12 LIS at 19168. 

It was a battle between shorts holding the HOD, and longs holding the LOD. And both M5 entries that came from the HOD and LOD have held this far (3:31PM)