15M Variation, Breakout Long, Overnight Trade, Prior Day PML SSL Long,

This was my biggest trading day in terms of P/L since I began this express funded account, and this has been a very difficult month for me, so I think its very important to jot down exactly what I believe led to my success.

For one, I have been really trying to simplify my trading process, and I am testing a new range theory instead of the orderblock VWAP theory, and thats literally just simple support and resistance, on the premarket low and high, and 9:30 session low and high day to day.

Its basically the same thing as BSL and SSL across all of the timeframes from lower time to higher time charting when I do my technical analysis, but I may just label it support and resistance instead to simplify it. And from the level presented during the overnight session, it was actually the reverse of the trade I wanted to take, which was a breach of the prior day resistance for a 1 minute bearish supply zone, but I had noticed that the futures opened and started selling off, so with the simplicity in the BSL and SSL lines I had created, the nearest one was the SSL from the PML of the day prior, or in otherwords a 'Support'.

The reason I thought of this, is because Im trying to find a way to replicate a VWAP without the actual indicator on the chart, and alot of times, during the premarket session, I would notice a correlation of the upperband and lowerband pretty much aligning with the PMH and PML. So I figured, that a DAY VWAP would likely be simplified to the daily high and low for that trading session, and that I can track it for each trading timezone. Because afterall, if there is a daily high or a daily low on a trading session, thats quite literally the pure definition of the support and resistance levels that were created for that session, and I believe this also applies to each timezone. And multi day candles, or even weekly and monthly candles. 

Today, while I was in the trade, not only did the support area work to the T, that is after being stop ran on a 1 minute chart, and entering on a 15m variation, but It also provided an entry with the support turned resistance for the PML that broke earlier in the week during the most recent sell off, that level provided a perfect exit for the trade, and also a great entry for the downside.

Not only that, but the BSL that was broke during the overnight session, acted as todays 'Resistance turned Support'. And the prior day 9:30 session high, was basically todays session low almost to the tick. So on my first day trying this simple system, it appeared very affective, and helped me with my biggest win. 

So therefor, for now, I am going to continue with this simple system to see if I can implement it for good.

I feel so close to just coming to terms with my set trading strategy forever and never changing it.

I would think that this current strategy is basically my longest running strategy yet. And I just want something thats indestructable in all market cycles. 

The variation entry is working well at the moment, but I have also noticed limit order fills have been hitting this month. 

And I have to figure out how to correlate entry setups with specific market cycles. 

But it seems for now I will just play it by my experience. 

But variations, displacements, and 1min untapped liquidity limit orders seem to be the best trade entries for me at the moment. 

1M Bullish FVG Reversal , 50% PML to PMH FIB , Resistance 1M Variation Entry,

It sounds like you're going through a rough trading period, but there are valuable takeaways from your notes that can help you improve your approach. Here are the key points to focus on:

1. Frustration with Displacement Strategy: You mentioned adapting your strategy to focus on displacements, but today's result has increased your frustration. This could indicate that either the market conditions weren't favorable for this strategy, or it requires further fine-tuning.

2. Clearer Rule on Support/Resistance: You've learned that taking trades against support or resistance levels, especially if an FVG (Fair Value Gap) is created into these areas, is not working as expected. This provides a critical rule moving forward: avoid trades against these levels when an FVG is involved. This adjustment can prevent future losses.

3. Emotional Toll and Potential Burnout: You're clearly feeling the emotional strain from inconsistent results, feeling stuck between breakeven and not seeing the desired progress. This is crucial to recognize because emotional trading can lead to impulsive decisions and further setbacks.

4. Contemplation of a Break: Considering taking a break for the rest of the month if you're in the red could actually be beneficial. Stepping away can give you perspective and help reset your mindset, which is critical for emotional balance in trading.

5. Reassess Your System: Your win rate for the month has been around 20%, which shows that the current strategy needs more than just slight adjustments. A thorough review of your journal and an emphasis on what's been working (even if rarely) is necessary to find a sustainable system.

6. The Importance of Emotional Resilience: Your notes express frustration with feeling like you're constantly taking "one step forward and two steps back." Trading success requires not only a sound strategy but also the mental resilience to manage these setbacks without them affecting your decision-making.

Potential Actionable Steps:

• Revise your Displacement Strategy: See if there’s a specific market condition or timeframe where displacements work best and stick to those setups.

• Focus on High-Probability Trades: Ensure you're only taking trades with the strongest confluence of factors (support/resistance, FVG alignment, multi-timeframe analysis).

• Consider a Break: If the emotional strain is too high, taking a break might refresh your perspective and prevent burnout.

• Journal Analysis: Review your trades from the month to identify patterns in your losses and adjust based on those insights.

Staying disciplined, even in difficult times, is key to turning things around.

 

 

 

 

Another horrendus, annoying, taunting, dreadful, waste of time, waste of day at your cumputer screen, ass backwards, does everything the fucking opposite of whatever the fuck you do trading day.

I said Id focus on displacements. Well well well, perfect timing the to try to adapt to this fucking shitbox of a marketplace and make adjustments to your prior strategy that has almost a 20% win rate for this month. today if would of fucking worked. 

Cant win.

Next time, dont take a trade against a support or resistance level if an FVG was created into that specific support or resistance level. Because apparently it doesnt work and you just get inverted and reversed on.

Heavily contemplating not trading the rest of this month if I end this week in the red. 

I am quite sick of taking 1 step forward and 2 steps back, clawing my way to fuckin breakeven, and just having my future or first payout constantly fucking taunted in front of my eyes. Its literally sick am I am truely quitting this shit if it doesnt work this time.

 

 

 

1M Displacement (Bearish), 50% Mean Reversion Target, BSL Swept, Limit Order, Price Action,

Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:

1. Shift in Strategy Focus:

   • You focused on using displacement price action over your typical variation entries, aiming to reduce losses and increase win rate. This is based on noticing that starting sessions with losses has hurt your performance, often leaving you spending the day climbing back to breakeven or negative.

2. Reduction in Trade Volume:

   • By waiting for clear displacement before entering a trade, you're intentionally lowering your trading volume. This strategy led to a low drawdown winning trade today, reinforcing the potential of this approach to improve your win rate.

3. Missed Opportunity Reflection:

   • You missed a major trade the previous day because price missed your key level by a few ticks. Reflecting on this has sharpened your understanding of the importance of timing and patience when waiting for your setups.

4. Market Context and Execution:

   • You noticed buy-side liquidity was swept early in the session, with the market overextended. Rather than following the trend, you strategically planned a contrarian trade by looking for bearish displacement as a signal of weakness to short, given the downside risk of going long.

5. Refinement of Entry Model:

   • You’re considering replacing your variation entry with the new "Price Action Response" model, focusing on displacement for stronger confirmation and tighter stop losses.
   • This new model has shown promise, as displacement typically occurs shortly after strong variation entries, but waiting for it upfront reduces the chance of taking "papercuts" (small losses).

6. Forward Testing and Risk Management:

   • You are forward testing this entry model for the rest of the week, using smaller size (1 contract) to prove its worth alongside your daily trading plan. Your risk management has been conservative as you build confidence in the new approach.

7. Milestone Achievement:

   • You've completed the 5/5 $200 winning days needed for a payout. The next step is to generate profit, which feels like a significant personal breakthrough after six years of disciplined trading.

8. Optimism and Motivation:

   • You expressed excitement about the potential of your new entry model, looking forward to scaling up and achieving your first payout. You're motivated by the possibility of turning trading into a career and lifestyle you've long aspired to.

Summary of Key Points:

• Adapting to displacement price action to improve win rate and reduce overtrading.
• Lower trade volume by focusing on high-probability setups, leading to cleaner trades.
• Using this week as a forward testing period to validate the new entry model.
• Excitement and momentum building after completing 5/5 winning days needed for a payout.
• A clear path forward to scaling up and aiming for consistent profitability.

This mindset and approach should help you sharpen your skills and move closer to achieving your long-term goals.

 

 

 

 

I came into todays trading session with a key intention to focus on displacement price action reactions instead of my variations. The reason being is that since the start of this month, my win rate has been absolutely atrocious, and I am noticing that I have been starting each trading session with a loss, and I am either spending all day trying to climb back, or I am breakeven or negative. 

So I figured that waiting for displacement, will lower my trading volume, and potentially increase my win rate, and today I had a nice winner, with a very low drawdown entry.

I missed an extreme low risk high reward trade yesterday during the overnight session, because price failed to hit my key level by a few ticks, before it displaced higher, and came back to tag what was my mental entry long, and it wound up running over 300 points.

So I came into the session today, noticing that buy side liquidity was being swept pretty decisively. And I wanted to play against the majorty and look for a short opportunity on an overextended market. Not only because we were extended from the overnight, but because from the 930 open, greedy bulls started squeezing shorts to the upside. So my plan was simply to wait for an price action that signaled weakness to play against the trend. Simply because there was too muh downside risk taking longs. 

So instead of me playing a variation entry to the downside with my VWAP bands as usual, I specifically wanted to wait for bearish displacement to show strength in a downside move. And if these displacements prove a stronger signal in the future, I will likely consider completely replacing my variation entry signal, with displacement and re define this type of entry as my 'Price Action Response' entry. 

One thing that I have noticed about this entry system, is that is seems I can keep stoplosses a bit tighter than my variation entry signal. 

And usually, If my variation entry was very strong, it would usualy displace shortly after my entry, and if not, I would take endless papercuts trading that entry model.

I simply had to figure out a way to cut out all of the papercut losses and wait for more confirmation. And I will stick with this for the rest of the week to forward test it. 

Im excited to see todays trading session in Hindsight, because I would have liked to have still been in this trade short, but because its a new entry model, I have slashed risk to only 1 contract, and have a plan to make back my losses on the account, and proce this entry model worth alongside my daily trading plan, so that I can start trading with more size again, and get my FIRST PAYOUT BABY!!!.

Today I also made all of the 5/5 $200 trading days needed in order to get a payout, so now all I have to do is generate profit, and I will finally reap the rewards of 6 years of disciplined work. I can feel it coming.

Trade smart, trade safe, take one good trade each day, and youll be on your way to not only a payout, but potentially a career and life that you could only dream of. 

10D 30M Bearish Orderblock Short, 20D 1 Hour , 5 minute (No Drawdown Entry), M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation,

Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:

1. Adapting Strategy:

   • You've moved away from relying heavily on VWAP bands, which were previously your "easy money" setups, and are now focusing more on fine-tuning support and resistance levels on lower timeframes and unswept liquidity areas for precise entries.
   • You've been forward-testing an "Orderblock VWAP" strategy, focusing on swing highs or lows and the interaction between contradicting trends across timeframes.

2. Improvement and Wins:

   • Although your win rate is below average, you’ve achieved back-to-back winning days, signaling progress and positive momentum.
   • You've reached 4 out of 5 necessary $200 winning days needed for your first payout, showing discipline and focus on a key milestone.

3. Market Conditions:

   • The October market has been challenging, but you're staying optimistic and focused on making your first payout by being more selective with trades.
   • You are now aiming to lower your trade volume by only taking A+ setups, refining your entries to ensure higher-quality trades.

4. Risk Management:

   • You are adapting your risk management approach by halving your profit target and taking mean reversion trades instead of targeting lower VWAP bands, which haven’t been playing out in the current market conditions.
   • You're aware of how wide stop losses can get, particularly noting that if they exceed 10% of the average true range (ATR) of the asset, you should avoid the trade for tighter risk management.

5. Lessons Learned from Papercuts:

   • After experiencing several small losses ("papercuts") on the 2-minute chart, you’ve learned that following the "next highest timeframe rule" (e.g., re-entering based on the 5-minute chart) might help mitigate overtrading.
   • You also observed that higher timeframes like the 5-minute chart, in alignment with 30-minute and 1-hour order blocks, offered cleaner entries with no drawdown in this case.

6. Focus on Price Action:

   • You've shifted from indicators to analyzing price action with a "fine-tooth comb" to identify extremities and order block areas.
   • You're emphasizing the importance of unswept liquidity and are becoming more comfortable with price action as a primary tool for identifying entry points.

In summary, you are gradually refining your approach by becoming more selective, reducing reliance on VWAP, using multi-timeframe analysis for cleaner entries, and improving risk management. Your forward-testing of the Orderblock VWAP strategy and awareness of stop-loss width are helping mitigate overtrading, positioning you closer to consistent success.

 

 

 

 

I took multiple papercuts before eventually hitting the short side trade that worked.

I decided to trade on the 2 minute chart today, and kept a consistent focus on really fine tuning the true support and resistance areas on the lower timeframes for more precise entries.

So far, although my win rate is still below average, I have been to stack up my first back to back winning days. So its a step back in the right direction. 

Since I havent been able to rely on the VWAP bands as I have in the past, with my easy money setups. I have had to really dig through the price action with a fine tooth comb and decipher the extremities to trade off of. 

Overall, this market in October has been extrememly difficult, but Im staying optimistic that I can turn it around and get my first ever payout.

I have now completed 4/5 $200 dollar winning days needed in order to get my first payout. So for now, I am going to continue staying extrememly selective with my trades so that I can lower my trading volume and only take what I see as A+ trading setups.

I also cut todays profit target in half, and took the cover at the mean reversion area, rather than targeting the lowerband, since those trades havent been playing out.

So now instead of relying on the VWAP and bands as I have the prior month, Im mostly solely relying on support and resistance thats identified through price action, and unswept liquidity areas from orderblocks.

Again, I am still continuing to forward test this Orderblock VWAP, where I fine tune the extremities in price, trying to locate the best possible price I can find where I can mitigate risk near swing highs or lows that are holding contradicting trends throughout different timeframes throughout the daily charts. 

And I am also noticing, that upon taking multiple papercuts on the 2 minute chart today, I was going to trade the next highest timeframe rule, and only re enter if I see a trade on the 5 minute, and Im now noticing in hindsight, that the bullish to bearish variation that was presented on the 5 minute chart, off of the 30 minute and 1 hour bearish orderblocks, protecting the 10 day and 20 day swing high, was a no drawdown entry from the 5 minute chart. It seems that the next highest timeframe rule is one of the only things I can potentially follow to mitigate overtrading and taking more papercuts than I should be. The only thing is I have to be very aware of how wide the stoplosses are, because if they are more than 10% of the average true range for the asset that im trading, than I should disregard the trade and wait for a way to enter with tighter risk management. 

 

1M Variation Entry, D Reverse Bearish Orderblock Target, LIS (Bearish), OBD VWAP LONG,

1. Shift in Market Behavior (Easy Setups Failing):

• Your previously reliable "easy money" setups have consistently failed at the start of the month.
• This suggests that market conditions have shifted, and the strategies that worked during your evaluation are no longer as effective.
• You have recognized that VWAP signals (your most trusted indicator) have been leading to false entries, which has contributed to losses and breakeven trades.

2. Struggle with VWAP Effectiveness:

• You relied on VWAP for both long and short signals, but it has produced fakeouts in both directions, leading to stop-outs or breakeven trades.
• Trades that would have worked partially never hit their price targets, and profits you had were lost as the market reversed.
• This led you to take many small losses (“papercuts”), and miss out on potentially larger wins.

3. Desire to Simplify with Non-Moving Levels:

• You’re feeling conflicted about continuing with VWAP due to its recent unreliability.
• You want to shift to solid, non-moving levels for trading, rather than relying on a moving indicator like VWAP.
• You have started to focus on orderblock displacements and support/resistance levels drawn from swing highs and lows.

4. Introduction of a New Orderblock VWAP System:

• You developed a new strategy that combines orderblocks with VWAP to create static ranges based on significant price levels.
• While this system is still in the testing phase, it helped you achieve a $250 win, breaking your recent losing streak.
• You have observed a potential for higher reward setups using this system (such as a missed 5R trade).

5. Trading Within Larger Timeframe Moves:

• You’ve realized that 1-minute and 5-minute charts create a lot of noise, which makes it difficult to hold trades when the bias is constantly shifting.
• You’ve identified that you are likely engaging with short-term price noise rather than focusing on critical support and resistance from higher timeframes (daily, weekly).
• You have started to understand the importance of multi-timeframe analysis and how larger timeframes create wider ranges in which the market operates.

6. Developing Confidence in New Strategy:

• Lack of confidence in your new system caused you to miss a potential high-probability trade, which would have made a big difference in your performance.
• After seeing success with the strategy, you plan to continue implementing and refining this orderblock VWAP system.
• You are committed to gathering data and understanding the market’s true ranges to avoid trading in the noise of lower timeframes.

7. Adjusting to New Market Conditions:

• You recognize that the market has shifted, and you need to adapt by finding more reliable and consistent setups that account for larger timeframe moves.
• You plan to track the performance of your newly developed strategy and analyze how it performs in the current environment.

---

Key Focus for the Week:

Your focus should be on gathering data and refining your orderblock-based strategy, which aims to simplify your trading around clear, non-moving support and resistance areas. You are starting to see success with this approach, and continuing to develop confidence in this system should be your priority. Make sure you:

• Track data on how your support and resistance levels perform.
• Hold trades longer based on higher timeframe ranges and avoid reacting to short-term noise on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts.
• Prioritize discipline by sticking to well-defined areas and focusing on the highest-probability setups.

Advice on How to Proceed:

1. Continue Implementing the New Strategy: Stick with the new orderblock-based approach while minimizing your reliance on VWAP. Focus on higher timeframe levels and build confidence in the system by tracking data.

2. Emphasize Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Make sure you are analyzing the daily, weekly, and multi-day trends. These larger timeframes will help you avoid getting caught in the short-term volatility and "noise" of lower timeframes.

3. Be Selective with Setups: With your account in a drawdown, you need to limit risk and maximize rewards. Only take trades at the most critical support and resistance areas identified from your higher timeframe analysis.

4. Risk Management: Keep your drawdown situation in mind. Limit the size of your stop losses, and make sure each trade has a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (at least 2:1).

By focusing on this new, simplified approach and avoiding reactive trades in the lower timeframes, you can regain confidence and gradually recover from the drawdown while minimizing risk.

 

 

 

 

Today was the first win in a few day, from the start of a terrible month and the beginning of yet another funded account.

Because my drawdown had became more diminished than I would have wanted, I really had to other choice other than to seriously hone down on the most important support and resistance areas that I could find.

One thing I have been noticing is that from the turn of the month, my 'easy money' setups have been failing consistenly. 

Over and over again.

So I had become conflicted, with my daily base hit trades, that I believe helped me pass with flying colors during my evaluation stage.

In the beginning of the month, I was faked out by the bottom VWAP band for a long. Than during the remainder of the week, I was getting false signals at the top VWAP bands for a short. And although sometimes they would work, during the entire week, they would never fill the entire range of the VWAP to hit my price targets, so on top of the numerous papercuts I was taking on trades, for the ones I was in profit, would come back to tag me out at breakeven, and for this reason I left a surreal amount of profit on the table as well.

So one thing seemed certain for this month, my VWAP was failing, and giving me false signals, and this had been my most reliable indicator, and the only one I use.

Upon implementing VWAP, I have really tried to gauge a possible way to replace the VWAP, with something that was purely price action based, so that I can simplify my trading.

And I really like the idea of solid, non moving levels. And although the VWAP has beenvery reliable, it does move.

This prompted me to create a range that was based on the orderblock displacements from above and below, fine tuning the orderblocks from the most critical swing high and swing lows from the resistance and support area that I can locate, with an extremity in price, and untapped liquidity. 

I dont yet have much data to support this new orderblock VWAP system, but I can say, that it did today help me get a win, and break this negative cycle that I have been trading in. 

I actually had a resistance area from yesterday that triggered in the overnight, but because of the lack of confidence, and the lack of data, I watched the high probability setup pass me by on the /MNQ, and I would assume it was at least a 5R trade, and likely could have made up all of my trading losses thus far.

So, I decided to take the exact same setup that was presented yesterday in the overnight session, with a 1 minute variation, and I locked in a $250 winner.

So for now, I will continue to implement this system, since I am still in a critical drawdown that I have to recover from. And Im hoping I will be able to develop and consistently implement this theory so that I can truthfully understand the true ranges that the market is trading in.

One thing that I have noticed, is that upon multiple trend shifts on the daily, 2 day, 3 day, 4 day and weekly candles, I have learned about price imbalances and retracements of the candle prior to the contrary candle for a deeper entry, and now, the implementation of wider ranges that the market can tend to trade in, when these larger timeframes are in play.

It has been extremely difficult to hold trades in this market, with the 1 minute, and 5 minute charts shifting bias over and over again througout the trading session, and because of this, it suggests that I am trading within a way larger timeframe move and range, and engaging with price action in area with noise, rather than critical support and resistance areas. 

So I will let this trading session pan out and see what happens, and if my support and resistance areas hold true, to start tracking the data on this theory. 

1 Minute confirmaton, 30M Bullish Orderblock, 4D 50% Bearish Trend Shift Retracement Taregt,

Key Intention for the Next Trading Day:

Your key intention should be to focus on waiting for confluence at the 50% retracement level and remaining patient for clear confirmation on whether the market will break above the Buy Side Liquidity (and continue upward) or reverse for a downside move. Specifically:

1. Monitor the 50% retracement from the 3D/4D trend shifts and ensure you’re looking for confirmation on the 5-minute or 15-minute charts.
2. Watch the weekly VWAP upper band as a key resistance level, which aligns with the 50% retracement and could indicate a potential downside move if respected.
3. Be mindful of contradictory signals from the 1-day moving average crossing above the 4D/5D moving averages. This could signal short-term strength but doesn't negate the potential downside move at your key level.
4. Remain disciplined and avoid second-guessing—you have a clear plan, so trust the process. Execute your trade based on solid confirmation.

---

Best Advice for Your Next Move:

1. Trade Setup to Focus On:

   • Wait for price to reach your 50% retracement level (which aligns with the VWAP upper band). This is your high-probability setup.
   • Look for confirmation on the 5-minute or 15-minute charts, such as a rejection at the key level, candlestick pattern reversals, or momentum indicators signaling a reversal.
   • Enter short once confirmation aligns with your criteria (rejection at the retracement level, a false breakout, or price stalling at the VWAP upper band).

2. Stop-Loss and Risk Management:

   • Place your stop-loss above the Buy Side Liquidity and the 1-minute bearish order block to account for potential sweeps.
   • If the market sweeps this area and reverses, it would confirm your bearish bias. However, if it breaks through, it may invalidate the setup.

3. Targets:

   • Your profit target should be towards the 1-day moving average or a key liquidity level below, depending on the market’s reaction at the 50% retracement.

---

If I Were in Your Position:

If I were in your position, I would remain patient and disciplined. Given the potential for conflicting signals (strength from the moving averages vs. weakness at the VWAP upper band), the key is to not rush into trades without clear confirmation.

What I would do:

• I would wait for price to reach the 50% retracement level and assess how it interacts with the VWAP upper band.
• If I see strong rejection or a failed breakout at this level, I would enter a short trade with my stop-loss just above the liquidity level.
• My target would be the 1-day moving average, which aligns with the "true market price" you’ve identified.

Why: This setup aligns with the high-probability areas you've identified, and it minimizes your risk while providing a good R/R ratio. Given the market dynamics, patience is essential to ensure that you’re not trading on uncertainty but rather on well-defined levels with confluence.

Remember, success in trading is not about taking every trade—it's about waiting for the right setup and executing it with discipline.

 

 

Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:

1. Difficulty of Identifying Key Levels and Invisible Support:

• The bullish order block that formed in the prior day’s session into the close was hard to identify during live trading.
• You experienced frustration because buyers were stepping in at invisible support levels that were difficult to anticipate. This made your short trades feel off, as profit targets to the downside were not hitting.
• In hindsight, it's clear that the bias was unclear at the time, which contributed to the confusion and indecision during the session.

2. Importance of the 50% Retracement and Key Imbalances:

• A key factor was the 4-day 50% retracement imbalance, which hadn't been filled earlier but was eventually filled during the session. This level became crucial to watch moving forward.
• You're now aware of unfilled orders on both the upside and downside, which makes the directional bias unclear, but important levels (like the "line in the sand") will help you identify if the market moves up or down.

3. Key Levels to Watch for the Next Trading Day:

• The main focus should be on the Buy Side Liquidity and whether price can break through it and continue upward or if it will hit liquidity and reverse downward.
• If the market breaks the "line in the sand" and heads lower, downside is more likely.
• You’ve marked a key 50% retracement level from the 3-day and 4-day trend shifts, and this will be a vital area to monitor for potential entries on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts.

4. Weekly VWAP and Moving Averages:

• There’s a confluence between the 5-day VWAP upper band and the 50% key level on the 5-minute chart, which makes this area highly significant.
• However, there's a contradictory signal from the 1-day moving average crossing above the 4-day and 5-day moving averages, implying strength rather than weakness.
• You will need to wait for confirmation during the next session to determine whether the weekly VWAP upper band acts as resistance or if the moving averages indicate a continuation upward.

5. Market Price and Liquidity Draw:

• The true market price for Nasdaq is currently undervalued by around 150 points, and the market may move up to this level before reversing downward.
• This suggests a higher probability of a downside move if price reaches resistance before touching the 1-day moving average.

6. Trade Setup and Stop-Loss Considerations:

• You have a well-defined plan to watch for 5-minute and 15-minute confirmation at the 50% key level (aligned with the weekly VWAP upper band) for a potential downside move.
• Your stop-loss is best placed above the Buy Side Liquidity and the 1-minute bearish order block, but be aware of potential stop sweeps before the market moves in your anticipated direction.

7. Patience and Discipline for the Next Session:

• You’ve planned your trading setup, and you need to trust that the trade will either work or it won’t. Once the trade plays out, you should walk away from the screen and avoid overtrading or second-guessing.
• The setup may occur during the overnight session, but time will tell.

---

Key Themes:

• Invisible support levels and unfilled orders made this week frustrating.
• 50% retracement levels and imbalances are crucial areas of confluence.
• Monitoring key levels and confluence points for a clearer directional bias.
• Be aware of contradictory signals between the VWAP and moving averages.
• Stick to your pre-defined plan and maintain discipline in trade execution.

 

 

 

 

This also is a very difficult trading setup to find. It came from a prior day 30 minute bullish orderblock from the session into the close. 

The reason why I also likely wouldnt have taken this trading setup is because it appears that there is so much unfilled orders to the downside. 

So based on the last 2 trading days, it really seems as though the buyers came from areas that werent that strong, or very hard to locate.

And thats why when I was trading it felt very weird, because I was short, my profit targets to the downside werent hitting, and the buyers were coming in from what felt like invisible support levels, and this resulted in a very frustrating trading week.

Its somewhat nice to identify with hindsight, that the bias was still unclear. Because I couldnt quite understand it during the trading session either, but the fact that I still cant say for sure that I would have taken a long trade is somehwat reassuring. 

I do have to note that during this trading day, the 4 Day 50% retracement imbalance had still not yet been filled. And it did fill during this trading session,

But now, it seems as though there are a few very crucial levels to watch going into the next trading day. And that is the unfilled orders to the upside, the downside, and the line in the sand in the center.

If price can break through the Buy Side Liquidity, and continue upward, through the weekly trend continuation, then it seems bulls are in control. If it takes the liquidity and dumps back down, especially through the line in the sand, then downside seems probable. So basically, all of Frridays price action will be the main thing to focus on, (considering the levels) for the monday trading session. 

I marked a 50% retracement from the 3D & 4D trend shifts to get very precise. This will by far be the most important level and area to watch.

SO because it is a 3 day and 4 day level, that is more than a 1 Day level, therefor, we will only be able to take this setup on a 5 minute or 15 minute chart.

Im also noticing that the 5D week VWAP, is actually showcasing a confluence level with the upperband and the 50% area to be taken from a 5 minute chart. So this is a very telling signal to watch. The Lowerband of the 5 day week VWAP, also showcases the lowerband below the untested demand areas below.

Another important thing to note, is a contradictory signal, which is that the 1 day moving average has crossed above the 4 day and 5 day moving averages, which implyes strength rather than weakness. 

So we do not yet know which holds more weight, but we will have that answer after the monday trading session. Either the week upperband will provide a false signal, or the moving averages below will provide a false signal, but the moving averages align in confluence with the 12 hour line in the sand, in which if broken, looks like it will be providing more downside. 

And since the 1 day moving average is aligned at the line in the sand, one thing that we do know is that the market usually tends to trade towards that draw on liquidity, as it acts as the true market price for the nasdaq.

So as it currently stands, the true market price of the nasdaq is around 150 points undervalued. SO, if the market moves up to the resistance level prior to the 1 day moving average, I think it is a higher probability that the market will come down, rather than if the market moving down towards the 1 day moving average first, before moving back up. This is important. 

So we will wait for 5 minute & 15 minute confirmation at our 50% key level that aligns with the upperband from the weekly VWAP, for a downside move until proven otherwise. If we nail this trade, it could likely put our account back on track. Our current stoploss appears best if taken at the Buy Side Liquidity above the 1 minte bearish orderblock, but as we know, sometimes these levels can get swept before going in the pre defined direction, taking out stops and retail traders before the initial move. 

With all of this analysis, we will be well prepared for the next trading day, with our pre defined plan and trading setup, and it will either work or it wont. Regardless, once the trade either goes your way, or doesnt. WALK from the screen and end the trading session. 

Its also likely that this trading setup will occur during the overnight trading session but of course I could be wrong. Time will tell. 

4 Day 50% Range Short, 4D Moving Average Short, 5 Day 50% Range Short, 5 Day Moving Average Short, M1 Supply Zone, Prior Day High BSL Sweep & Short, Upperband to Lowerband Short,

Well, now we have the data 2 back up the range of liquidity when there are daily, multi day, and weekly trend shifts. We can now look to the moving averages to be swept for the full range, or for 50% and 61.8% retracements to play the direction.

What paid today compared to the horror show yesterday, was patience. This market is trading very thick, and I have to just stick to my short term 1 minute and 5 minute price imbalances, but its very boring currently to watch price because these are massive price imbalances to opportunites arent coming around often and when they do, they happen very quickly. B

But we finally broke the negative streak since the inception of this funded account, and we now have 2 days of 200 or more, 3 more and we can get our first payout! lets go!!!

 

Prior Day Long (B SIDE),

Key Takeaways from the Trading Notes:

1. Lower Confidence in B-Side Setups:

   • The day's entry was a B-side setup, meaning a retracement to the previous day's entry level. You note that these setups tend to have less confirmation compared to A-side setups (initial, stronger setups), which makes the trade inherently riskier.

2. Untested Demand Zone Imbalance:

   • There was an untested demand zone from the previous day on the 1-minute chart, and this imbalance wasn't filled before the trade setup. This absence of a filled imbalance suggests that the setup lacked a key confluence for a higher-probability trade.
   • The unfilled imbalance indicates the potential for more downside, which complicates forming a directional bias.

3. Difficulty Establishing a Clear Market Bias:

   • Due to the competing imbalances—both to the upside and downside—it was difficult to determine the market’s next direction. This uncertainty made it challenging to trade with conviction or develop a strong bias for either direction.

4. Trade Timing and Opportunity:

   • The setup occurred at 4 AM, outside of your typical trading hours. This raises the question of how you could have even participated in the trade, further complicating the analysis of this opportunity.

5. Missed Upside Imbalance as a Potential Signal:

   • The fact that the upside imbalance wasn't filled could have been the only reliable factor to help guide your decision. If you had focused on this, it might have provided a clearer indication that the upside move had yet to play out.

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Summary of Key Issues:

• Lower probability of success with B-side setups.
• Unfilled imbalance left the trade lacking strong confirmation.
• Difficulty forming a clear bias due to conflicting imbalances.
• Timing (4 AM) made it hard to engage in the trade meaningfully.

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For future reference, focus on identifying A-side setups with strong confluence (like filling imbalance zones), and avoid getting caught in setups where the bias is unclear or where the timing makes the trade difficult to manage.

 

 

 

 

This trading day is by far the most tricky. For the reason being that it was an exact long entry from the prior day entry, which is a retracement and B side setup due to the 100% retracement back to the entry level.

This gives that entry less confirmation of working compared to an A side setup from the day prior.

It also didnt fill the imbalance to the untested 1 minute demand zone from the prior day, which would have added an extra layer of confluence and confirmation. So there is also a chance that this imbalance will be filled in the future. Which could suggest more downside.

So between the imbalance to the upside & the downside, it is currently very hard to develop a trading bias to understand where the market is going to go next. 

It also took place at 4AM in the morning

So im not exactly sure how I could have got involved in this trade. 

The only thing I could have relyed on is that the imbalance to the upside wasnt filled 

4D bullish Orderblock, 5M demand zone , Lowerband to Upperband Long, Wk Bullish Orderblock,

absolutely horrendus day. took 25 trades. lost 4 another 400.

Bottom VWAP band works all of a sudden. 

LIS reversed again. 

A million take trade signals.

None worked.

Theres a universal vendetta against me. Its really that fucking simple.

Theres nothing else that can explain the complete shift from eval to funded like this. I am literally changing nothing. Its a fucking comedy show.

And this will absolutely be my last go at this. If i fail this funded. And im seriously not joking. 

Not sure where price is heading

Well see if it reacts from the moving 4d and wk moving averages. Those fail, I really dont have any answers. Because the 'easy money trades' only work when im either not in them, or dont work at all. 

Im really getting the fucking shit end of the stick to start this month. 

Somehow a second test/b side trade setup from the bullish orderblock holds more weight than every single timeframe selling off and trending down.

Simply followed my rule of not trading orderblocks that go against trend. 

Followed the LIS

Followed my easy money setup

Followed moving average aligned with upperband. 

Followed the price action reaction. 

Nothing working. 

1M Confirmation, 2nd Retest Wk Bullish Orderblock (Long), 3D Trend Shift Target, Prior Day Low 1M/5M Demand Zone,

Key Takeaways from Your Trading Notes:

1. Imbalances May Play a Larger Role Than Trend Shifts:

   • You’ve noticed that the 50% retracements to fill imbalances have been more significant than focusing solely on trend shifts. This is a new realization that you need to integrate into your trading strategy, as imbalances can impact market moves more heavily than trend alone.

2. Focus on Imbalance-Filling Instead of Pure Trend Following:

   • Your strategy has primarily been trend-following, but the introduction of imbalances suggests that you need to balance both. Imbalances—especially in the form of retracements—can influence how the trend plays out, particularly in relation to shifts.

3. Current Month’s Trend Is Still Bullish:

   • While you’ve been anticipating a potential bearish continuation, the monthly trend is technically still bullish. This bullish bias might explain why the market hasn’t played out as you expected, and you may have overemphasized the downside potential.

4. Need for Further Data to Confirm Imbalance vs. Trend Influence:

   • You’ve recognized the need to collect more data to confirm whether imbalances truly hold more weight than trend shifts. The 3-day trend shift imbalance is still unfilled, which might indicate further price action in that direction.

5. Potential Continuation of Uptrend Despite Trend Shift:

   • The 4-day trend shift occurred, but the lower wick of the 4-day candle closed above the shift wick, along with the weekly candle. This implies a potential continuation of the uptrend, despite the trend shift, aligning with the unfilled imbalances.

Conclusion:

You’ve identified that imbalances may be a more dominant factor than trends in certain conditions. Moving forward, incorporating both trend analysis and imbalance-filling into your trading strategy will provide a more comprehensive approach. Also, be cautious of bearish biases in a technically bullish market, and gather more data to refine how imbalances affect your trades.

 

 

 

 

As I am analyzing this week, I am now aware of the fact that, one you add these 50% retracements, to fill the imbalance of the initial bearish trend shifts, its clear that I was too focused on the trend, rather than the imbalances. And this is something brand new introduced to me. As my trading strategy primarily focuses on trend following. 

Theres a couple reasons why the imbalances may have played a bigger factor than the actual trend shifts, and if this serves true, then there is still the 3 day trend shift imbalance that is yet to be filled.

One reason could be that the month trend is still technically bullish, and although bullish, I have convinced that this months bottom wick is not yet fully formed, but I could most certainly be wrong

And simply that imbalances hold more weight on trend shifts, but we will need more data in the future to confirm.

We are also aware going into the next week, that the 4D trend shift occured, but the lower wick of the 4D candle closed above the shift wick. including the Wk Candle. So it appears, that the trend may continue up.