Failed 1M Bearish FVG Retest/Variation 9:30 Open,

Premarket Game Plan:

1. Journaling & Analysis (Pre-market):

   • Wake up 2 hours before market open to perform a complete market analysis.
   • Define key support/resistance levels from H12, H4, and H1 timeframes.
   • Identify buy-side and sell-side liquidity zones from premarket activity (overnight session high/low).
   • Mark areas of potential manipulation (e.g., VWAP, premarket lows/highs) to gauge liquidity sweeps.
   • Note any key economic data releases or news that could influence market sentiment.

2. Key Setup (Identify A+ Setups):

   • Focus on one A+ setup using liquidity sweeps and structural breaks from higher timeframes.
   • Only enter trades if price hits an extremity (e.g., premarket high/low, major support/resistance) and forms a solid confirmation (H1 or H15 confirmation).

3. Risk Management:

   • Trade only /MES with a single micro contract until you rebuild confidence.
   • Maximum two trades per day. If you take two losses, stop for the day.
   • If your first trade fails, do not immediately reverse direction out of frustration; reassess the context before entering again.

4. Journal:

   • Log every trade meticulously, including the reason for entry, outcome, and what could have been done differently.

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Key Intention for Tomorrow’s Trading Session:

• Discipline & Patience:
  • Focus on the process, not the outcome. Rebuild confidence by following the rules, even if it means missing trades. The goal is survival and rebuilding your edge.
  • Avoid trading out of fear of missing out (FOMO) or revenge trading after a loss.
  • Stay calm and focused—each trade should be well-planned, and every loss is a learning experience to be reviewed later.

By following these steps and focusing on methodical execution, you can rebuild your confidence and regain control of your trading. Stay disciplined and remember that this is a long-term journey, not a sprint.

 

 

 

 

Key Takeaways from Your Trading Notes:

1. Market Conditions Have Shifted:

   • September's conditions allowed for clear, profitable entries using VWAP, where trends followed through, and profit targets were hit consistently. In October, the market has shown increased indecision, tighter ranges, and failure to respect profit targets.
   • The core strategy that worked in September is no longer effective, specifically VWAP and smaller timeframe signals, which leads to losses and frustration.

2. Psychological Impact and Confidence Issues:

   • Overtrading and constant losing streaks have deeply impacted your confidence. It feels as though the market is against you, causing hesitation, frustration, and avoidance of journaling.
   • Emotional trading has led to fear of missing out (FOMO), poor entries, and lack of discipline, especially with premature entries based on smaller timeframes.

3. Adapting to the Market:

   • You've noted that the higher timeframes appear to be driving market movements, but your stop-loss size and risk management prevent you from trading these longer trends effectively.
   • Your new approach of looking for buy-side or sell-side liquidity prior to entering trades is sound in theory, but without proper execution or confidence, you’ve struggled to make it work.

4. Stop Trading /MNQ Until Recovery:

   • You acknowledge that continuing to trade /MNQ with low confidence and tight stops is likely leading to death by a thousand cuts. You plan to switch to /MES with a single micro contract and limit yourself to two losses per day.

5. Journaling and Systematic Review:

   • The lack of journaling since getting funded has caused you to lose touch with your system. Without data-driven analysis, you’ve been relying more on reactive trades and emotional responses.

6. Urgent Focus on Survival:

   • You’ve set strict limits on trading, recognizing that the priority is to preserve your account. Rebuilding a buffer of drawdown is critical before attempting more aggressive trades.
   • You've committed to focusing on journaling and system refinement, treating this drawdown as a lesson in humility and adaptability.

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Constructive Criticism & Advice:

1. Stop Overtrading and Focus on Quality Setups:

   • You’re overtrading on lower timeframes, leading to unnecessary losses. You should return to focusing on higher-quality A+ setups, especially on more reliable timeframes like the H4, H1, or even H15.
   • Reduce the number of trades you take in a day and ensure each trade meets the highest criteria for probability and risk/reward.

2. Return to a Data-Driven Approach:

   • Resume journaling daily, not just for trades but also for market context. Document the market structure and trends at key times (e.g., premarket, 9:30 AM, and midday) to observe shifts.
   • You’ve mentioned the importance of adapting quickly to market changes. Systematically review each trade, win or loss, and update your rules to reflect what’s working in the current environment.

3. Broaden Timeframe Perspective:

   • Given that lower timeframes aren’t working, you need to shift focus to higher timeframes where the market is currently more responsive. Even if stop-losses appear larger, you can reduce position sizing to manage risk while capturing broader moves.
   • Consider using the H1 or H15 for entries and exits while refining stop placements based on structure instead of just small timeframe volatility.

4. Regain Control of Emotional Trading:

   • Emotional decision-making (like entering prematurely out of fear or overreacting to a loss) is hurting you. Take a step back from live trading if necessary and spend a day or two paper trading.
   • Limit yourself to one or two trades per day with defined setups. You’ve already identified that the market has been inconsistent, so overtrading won’t fix that.

5. Focus on Market Structure Over Indicators:

   • VWAP was a powerful tool in September but has become less reliable. Now, the market is likely responding more to broader structural patterns like liquidity grabs or support/resistance at key levels.
   • Stick to identifying key liquidity points, and don’t over-rely on technical indicators. Trust market structure and liquidity sweeps to guide your trades.

 

 

 

 

My confidence is absolutely destroyed. And I cant even believe Ive put myself in this predicament again where I may potentially blow my express funded account after all of the hard work I have not only put in to get funded, but also this month trying to keep my head above water. 

I have roughly $500 in drawdown left. My winrate is absolutely attrocious. It feels like every single trade I take is a destined loss. And I havent been journaling since I became funded. And that was right when the market changed at the beginning of this month.

This month has barely moved, there is a bunch of indecision, the ranges are tiny, It seems no position is respected, and either comes back to breakeven, or results in a loss.

Its a far different market than last month, where you can simply enter one time and let the trade run, and if it didnt run, it would rarely come back to stop you at breakeven, or at least give you some profits.

Another with this month is profit targets arent hitting. So when I finally am in profit on winning trades, the profits evaporate because they arent reached in target. 

Multiple times this month, the market has dropped, and dropped hard, when I have been givin a buy signal on my technical analysis, with a new strategy approach of the market testing buy side or sell side liquidity prior to taking a trade, so that I can get an extremity in price, and use a high/low structure to approach support and resistance, rather than my VWAP which failed multiple times throughout this month, and was basically the leading indicator in which helped me get funded in september. 

The VWAP was unbelieveably accurate in september, and in october completely stopped working. And it really all feels like a universal vendetta against me, because how is it that the moment I get funded, the market changes like this? So drastically with the main strategy I used to become profitable. 

With that being said, the day to day loses would aggravate me so much, that I wouldnt even want to journal, and because I have been overtrading due to getting way too many 'enter the trade' signals. And all of these signals are on the smaller timeframes like 1 minute and 5 minute, and it seems these timeframes are too short term to weather the movements of the market that appears to be trading on a higher timeframe approach. But I am unable to trade the higher timeframes, due to the fact that the stoplosses would be too wide, so I am forced to just take small papercuts over and over again on smaller timeframes to manage me risk on what appear to be high probability trades, but actually arent. 

 

But I only have a couple more trades that I can afford to take with the remaining drawdown that I worked so hard to rebuild back up.

So I hate to say, but the best thing I can do is to probably once again trade the /MES instead of /MNQ moving forward, WITH ONLY 1 SINGLE MICRO, I REPEAT, 1 SINGLE MICRO, MAXIMUM 2 LOSES A DAY AND WALK. Until you refind your groove again in this market place. 

DO NOT think about the money, DO NOT think about payouts, THIS IS FOR THE LIFE AND SURVIVAL of your account. And if you follow these rules, you can very likely quickly and decisisely change the path and rebulld a base again. 

You are NOT ALLOWED, to trade MNQ until you have at least 1K in drawdown again. 

The rest of this month will be solely JOURNAL BASED, as well as next month. That is going to be the majority of your workload again. 

Not pressing the buy or sell button, not attempting to make money based off of 'in game execution'. The truth is, you havent journaled, you completely stop doing exactly what got you funded, and thats having a DATA BACKED SYSTEM. 

You should take this drawdown as a MAJOR lesson, that you can never become comfortable in the markets, no matter how much money your making, no matter how well you doing.

Any slight changes in the markets that arent immeditately identified, will result in massive losses if you continue clicking the button when you shouldnt be.

And based off of your prior philosophies, that trading is like sailing on a boat, the moment theres a hole in the boat, you have to patch the hole, not continue sailing. And thats what youve been doing for this entire month. Continuing to click that button when you basically knew it was going to result in a loss, simply trading off of the concepts and plan of last month, without readjusting. 

So now here we are, and its time to readjust or you will be out of a funded account. 

Take it slow tomorrow. And maybe even start the day with papertrading and wait until next week monday, to gauge exactly how MES is trading since you havent been focusing on it. 

Act like the trading professional that you actually are. You got here for a reason. 

 

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Todays trade

 

I entered MNQ short off of a 1 minute bearish FVG with a continuation bearish variation from the sell side pressure off of the opening volume. 

I didnt wait for any extremity in price, due to fear of missing out on the downside. When I came into the session, bascially thinking that we would continue higher, due to the V Shape recovery back up, after massive massive manipulation in markets to the downside. 

Now, had I waited for sell side liquidity to be swept, in this case, the premarket low, in hindsight, im still currently trying to gauge how I would have entered, (which I primarily have been using 1 minute variation entries) but those havent been working much, so my confidence is very low in taking them. 

But in hindsight, a dip buy off of the pre market low with a 1 minute variation would have resulted in a manipulation stophunt, followed by and immediate second entry 1 minute variation for a win to have made up the loss, but I would have needed the confidence to have got right back in on the exact trade that failed prior. It also would have failed the 5 minute variation, But currently appears that POTENTIALLY, might have needed a 15 minute variation entry confirmation for a win.

But still, I wouldnt have been able to enter the market, due to the fact that the 15 minute variation entry would require a 70 point stoploss.

So I am currently unable to know for sure how I couldve entered a trade today in this market context during the 9:30 session. After being stopped out on my short entry. 

Also, from the overnight session. The premarket low level (sell side liquidity for the 9;30 session) could have been marked with a BUY OVAL. In the premarket, signaling that it was the 'trade of the overnight session' setup, from the premarket low to premarket high. Which resulted in about a 160 point win to the upside.

Now, the pre market high (buy side liquidity for the 9:30 session) candle wicked and rejected, PRIOR DAY premarket low sell side liquidity, for this sessions top. Sell side liquidity tends to act as support after swept, buy side liquidty tends to act as resistance after being swept. So the fact that todays premarket high (buy side liquidity) rejected yesterdays premarket low (sell side liquidity) It seems that this is the line in the sand currently, but im not sure if I can interpret that level as Bullish or Bearish

But as it stands, we currently have a double bottom on todays sell side liquidity pre marekt low, and a double top, for the sell side liquidity that failed as support in the prior day session, and also rejected again in todays premarket high. Maybe you can tell me CHATGPT, should I be currently bullish or bearish on this current marketplace, and what should I be waiting to see in price action to confirm direction here? 

 

So the best trades on each session, were from 19:15 in the overnight session for a long, with a cover of the position at 8:30 am the following day, which was the peak top of the market, that carried over into the 9:30 session today. 

So from that 8:30 top, the trade was a short , with a cover of position at 11:45. SO there hasent been any A+ setups for todays trading session, other than a B setup off of the sell side liquidity premarket low, which was technically a retest bottom rather that a first time bottom.

With a first time rejection of the prior sessions sell side turned buy side liquidity. And from the rejection the 1 minute and 5 minute charts actually did present a low risk high reward entry from the variations presented, which tended to be my main entries for the month prior. So the short from 8:30 would have given me way higher risk to reward as a first time retest rejection, rather than a B side long setup during todays 9:30 trading session, with a 15 minute variation with too wide of a stoploss.

 

This is my current evaluation of the trading market place for /MNQ. And I would like CHATGPT to give me any and all constructive criticism, advice on how to move forward and I also want you to create a premarket gameplan, and  to create a key intention to bring into tomorrows trading session. Thanks.