Premarket: Was unable to trade yesterday but it looks like it was a good day to take off as we seemed to range between 4144 and 4132 all day. It was expected with CPI numbers coming out today. Today, we had a steep drop early in the morning and when CPI came out we jumped from 4126 to a high of 4169. The CPI numbers came in at 5.5 when it was previously 5.6, and the market went nuts for a 1/10th of a % decrease, which I find odd. Looking at the market at 9:12 when I'm writing this we have blown past both the +1 and +2 pivots, which are at 4148.83 and 4162.17 respectfully. The 0pivot is at 4139.92, and the -1pivot (which we likely won't use) is at 4126.58. The CPI data candle on the 5m printed a top at 4152.5 and bottom at 4128.5. We have been consolidating around the high and the key 4166 level which was the top from the FOMC meeting date. The next significant levels to the upside at 4177.75 which was the top of the CPI push last time and then 4183.5 which was the high on 4/19. Obviously unless sellers come in strong I will be looking to take a long position, it's just a matter of finding a proper entry. I will look to see what the TICK/ADD/VOLD are doing at open as well as the sectors. I would like to see a pullback to the +2pivot at 4162.17 for a move back up to 4177. However, I went back to look at the last CPI reporting date on 4/12 and this is what the 30m looked like below. It looked like a massive bull trap where we retraced the whole move down and then moved even lower. While I technically don't want to be shorting above VWAP, this may provide an opportunity to short today.
TRADES:
Trade 1: This was a trend continuation trade that I had outlined in the premarket. We got a rejection at VWAP for a move down through 0pivot to top of range in premarket. I was up close to 7 pts on this trade and we got held up at the 0pivot which I did not realize was a consolidation zone in the afterhours yesterday (remember we had a huge drop at 3 am for some reason) I was considering taking profits but I got greedy looking for a larger move down to just above the premarket range level this morning. It ended up bouncing and I took a fairly large loser on this, risking the 20 EMA on the 2m. Overall I think the trade was well thought out, it's just I did not execute properly to close the trade when the market conditions were showing that. Looking back on the trade with what happened later in the day, this was the right idea just wrong timing. I should have closed this trade for profits and then re-entered later in the day around 10:25ish for the move down through the key support level.
Trade 2: This was another trend continuation trade because of the odd similarity between the last CPI day on 4/12. We moved back up to the +2pivot and found resistance so I got in short looking for a move back down to VWAP. This worked in my favor pretty quickly and I took 2 off at VWAP for close to 10 pts, and the last I left ride to the 0pivot and took profits there.
The one missed opportunity today was at around 10:20ish when we found resistance at VWAP again and could not break above it. I should have entered a short with the same thesis as my first trade and I would have been able to capitalize on another large move. Overall I'm please with how I traded today though.
