9/8/22

Grade: F

Goals: Be more selective and raise winning %

Reminders/Aphorisms: 

  • Don't fight the trend;
  • Be patient, take good set-ups
  • Respect at least 2:1 R/R

Overview: Work still being done in the house but less intrusive so more comfortable to trade. The SPY/QQQ are still in the macro downtrend but we had a decent green day yesterday but on lower volume than the prior days. I believe we could see a short move up to test 400 and a rejection back down to lows of 388, with a potential support level around 394. In regards to the QQQ it appears to have topped out around 300 a significant level. If we move up we could see 305 before we see a supply zone, or if we keep moving down we could see resistance around 293. NVDA had reached a supply zone around 138 and appears to be moving down where we will need to break through 134 for a major move towards a new low. Also to keep in mind is JPowell is speaking today at 9:10.

Trade Analysis:

  • Today was a disaster. I broke too many rules and I traded way too times. I went into the day with a short biased and it crushed me. I want to have a plan going into the day but I need to not have a bias and adjust to the charts and what is in front of me. I realized that I was trading to prove my thesis right at one point and guessing at a reversal but I did not stop trading and paid the price.
  • NVDA went down at open and perfectly bounced off premarket low and a demand zone making a strong trend upwards. I should have taken the long move at that rejection for a trend trade but I was short  biased.
  • Trade 1 was at open and way too early, The SPY/QQQ looked like they were moving down so I shorted NVDA looking for the same move. I should have waited for it to bounce off of VWAP or the 9 EMA instead of just getting in on the first candle on a whim. However, this trade I respected by R/R and it wasn't a huge loser.
  • Trade 2 was the trade I should have taken originally. I re-entered the first trade after a rejection of the 9 EMA and VWAP - I took my profit at around $1, would have risked the 20 EMA which was around 50 c. This was a great trade.
  • Trade 3 - this is where things went really bad - I took a trade looking for a short move back down through VWAP and down through the premarket low/demand zone because the previous green candles had less volume. I was wrong and the candle shot up almost instantly causing me not to respect my R/R of 2:1 and taking a $1 loser. At this point I should have stopped trading as I was put on tilt that it moved so quickly and in the opposite direction. I would have had a management red day at that point. From here on out - I was revenge trading trying to prove my thesis that we were going to have a short day right.
  • Trade 4 and 5 were quick scalp trades again shorting for no reason - these trades should have never been made.
  • Trade 6 I was looking for a rejection of previous day close and the supply zone I had mentioned previously. I was looking for a 50c scalp on this but it never quite reached it and then I took a loser on it. 
  • Trade 7 I was looking for a trend trade rejection of premarket - overall this wasn't a bad trade however I closed the trade for like 50c at the time because I was scared of the bounce on previous day close. It continued to move another $1 without me. This was not a bad trade but I closed it too early.
  • Trade 8 was a bad trade which was a little FOMO. I just got back from stepping out and saw that my prior trade would have ran. I was looking for continuation of the trend down. Looking back on it, the bounce on VWAP on the 5 minute had more volume than the prior bars which should have indicated a stronger move up. Again I should not have taken this trade
  • Trade 9 was an abject failure. I even averaged up on this trade which I should NEVER do. Again predicting a move down.

Lesson moving forward: 1) Do not have a bias going into the day. If my original plan is wrong then go with what the charts are offering; 2) DO NOT AVERAGE UP ASSHOLE; 3) When I realize I'm revenge trading stop trading and take the red day medicine.