-NVDA daily chart is hitting the trendline here with strong resistance so I took a swing short. My problem with entering this position is the fact that I didnt really have a target in mind but since CPI and Hikes are coming up on wednesday I somehwat panicked out of my position. This isnt really a bad thing but I couldve managed this much better. I need to find out where I find edge in this swing options positions and I really dont think that edge will be on massive 2 week holds or something crazy like that. I think that if I get a 5 point move in my allotted direction then I should almost always take profits. The market is in a very balanced period right now and trying to go for huge moves is somewhat sketchy because we just dont know what CPI or the Hikes will be.
-This was a Put options that I took mid day friday and yesterday I woke up with my position being up over 60 dollars and I put out a limit sell order then realized that if I am swinging maybe I shouldnt be taking small profits like this and I should go for bigger moves. What a mistake that was though. If I had taken my profits here and entered a call (since we hit the trendline) I wouldve made so much money. Couldve taken my put profits and entered a call becuase the sentiment albeit is sketchy but is very much leaning long in the CPI and Hike data coming up. It is much smarter to take longs in this time period than shorts in my opinion.
-Not to mention that NVDA is also above its trendline but I thought that sometimes it uses these as strong fakeouts to the upside then rally to the downside. That might happen but I have no clue. In general though its pretty stupid for me to be going for a continuation downtrend when we broke the actual downtrend itself.
-All in all I only lost 10 dollars on this entire trade but the lesson is more important. TAKE YOUR PROFITS. This market is super choppy and inconsistent. When you get an outsized win dont get greedy because the moment you do those MMs will get you.
How could I have done this trade better?
-To be honest I probably shouldve never even taken this trade in the first place because again we are ABOVE the trendline that is descending so it is going to either be choppy as shit or the longs will rip your face off.
-This is SMH which is the semiconductor ETF and it is also above this trendline and consolidating for a while now so LONGs look much cleaner than shorts in this zone. The hard part about all of this is just the fact that we are waiting for CPI and Hikes and nobody truly knows what they will be. I think you can say with decent certainty thought that CPI will drop and Hikes will be 50 bps but if that is not the case then good luck because we will crash severly hard.
