Stats:

Youtube Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mz3FC2ogcYQ&t=9s

Micro Timeframe: Uptrend

Intraday: Downtrend until 12:00 then Uptrend

Sectors:

Depth:

Trade: Micro Continuation Intraday Reversal

Trade Ideas: B

    - I had the correct idea very early on in the day. Although the SPY opened  -0.6% there were very many reasons why I was able to know how the sellers were not strong enough to push us lower. What I failed to do is not identify that this trade was definitely better than a D setup. It was probably a B given all of the ideas below. 

1. VOLD open at -1.5 (weak selling)

2. ADD- Ripped from -1000 to 0 right at the open (strong buyers)

3. TICK- started at -1000 then immediately started ranging around 0 (neutrality)

4. Opening range push through PM low held above YDAY low which was at 4096. Strong sign that sellers are not willing to sell below fridays price and thus a ranging move higher was very possible.

5. CPI PPI and JPM, BLK are all MAJOR catalysts this week which again is a strong sign that ranging moves are more likely than trending moves

6. XLY XLK XLC all were showing signs that sellers were again NOT willing to sell below fridays low and immediately after the opening drop they caught a bid.

7. XLP XLU XLV also had strong selling at the open to only be met with a massive green candle that pushed them again back above fridays low (except XLV). 

8. QQQ hit LOD and was pushing back up to opening price while putting in higher lows and pushes through key levels such as 8, 21, vwap

9. MACD on 10m was bullish after the first drop at the open

10. VOLD getting even weaker and hitting a +1 

For all these reasons, this trade was going to work. I got tipped off by many things all occurring at once and they all were saying the same thing which was, "At minimum a ranging day is possible and at best the LOD is already set"

Execution: C

    - If you see the trade above I somewhat got in a little early to the trade. I was willing to risk to 4096 because that was fridays low and I was in about 3-4 points of drawdown before I started to get a higher high off the LOD. Once I got the higher high there was a strong pullback to my entry price and I was unable to add into the trade. I see now that there were quite a few reasons why I shouldve added in my entry point then just sold at the new attempt at a higher high and then if I wanted to get back in I could do it sometime later on in the day. I need to remember that once the day opens and there is this much neutrality, anything can happen and the TA from the 30m starts to matter a litlle less than it normally would. These days can be pretty wild and start to trend at points. I also sold somewhat early. I knew 4115 was a key resistance level and I sold at 4111 instead of 4114 which wouldve been probably the better sell point. If I added and sold at 4114 that is a beautiful trade but since I still only had 1 contract and didnt end up adding and I held through a huge pullback just to sell only 1 point higher than the previous higher high, this trade is still somewhat ugly. Yes 9 points is great but without adding into the winner these trades dont really matter. I need to bet bigger on my A+ setups and today was not really an A but it definitely wasnt a D either. I shouldve had at least 1 extra contract in this trade and I had the perfect spot to do it. 

Mindset: C

    - I again was able to hold through drawdown and not sell at my entry price when it was retested which I think is just a huge win compared to last year where I would be in and out 100 times a day. I was somewhat scared to add into my position when it retest my entry which I think is a very big weakness of mine. I am too scared to lose my average and hold through a big drawdown but that is fundamentally flawed thinking. If I dont size up exponentially then a lot of my trading will not be worth it. I need to start small and be able to at least add 1 more contract at first. That is not too hard. I think that since I have been green for 4 straight days I am scared to lose that money but the market does not give a fuck about the money I have made and neither should I. If the setup is there PUT SIZE INTO IT. There is not much time for my to just sit here with 1 MES forever. I have to jump at some point.

How I should have traded:

    - This makes a lot more sense. At this point the SPY had WAY more confirmation that we were not breaking LOD and I couldve gotten in and risked only 1 point to previous low and then added on the next pullback with intention to sell below 4115 because I knew that fridays low being that spot is MASSIVE resistance. As you can see at 11:45 we hit that resistance hardcore and had a big selloff only to be met back with HUGE buyers. This is a classic whale selloff that turns into a huge short trap. I couldve gotten in first with 2 contracts risking only 1 point which is $10 then I couldve added 2 more on the pullback and had 4 contracts into the 4115 push. That wouldve been 12 points which is $240 gain with essentially a risk of $10 unless the pullback broke the low and you added in that spot. In that case you wouldve had an average of probably 4999 and had to sell at 4995 which with 4 contracts is about a $80 loss. Still that is about a 4R trade if executed correctly. 

How do I trade better tomorrow?

1. If you have 10 reasons that a trade should work, its a damn good setup. Size into those setups when they occur. 

2. Dont think about yesterdays profit or this months profit or this years profit. If you focus on not losing what you have already made, you will never grow. You have to only be as good at the next opportunity. Always look for the next one and be ready for it.

3. Start to write down all of the reasons why a thesis should occur or not and if you can stack them up then maybe thats a trade to size into. The thesis of direction and momentum is 1 part of the trade, The second part is execution. You need to wait for a higher low to enter for longs and lower high to enter for shorts. Have a tight and clean risk of previous higher low or lower high. If you are in the trade and up 3-5 points then see if your idea is getting even stronger amongst the list you previously created. If they are getting stronger then it is time to find a spot to add. This is the hardest part of trading but the most essential to learn. Sometimes adding on your entry is the best and sometimes adding on the next higher low (long) or lower high (short) is best. Sometimes you have to add up at elevated prices way beyond a higher low and that might be the best. You have to stay extremely fluid with the ways that you add, sell, rebuy, etc. these trades. They will change constantly and there will never be a right or a wrong way. It has to be studied in depth every day.