Micro: Uptrend
Intraday: Downtrend (only after we broke open price and continued)
Depth:
Sectors:
Trade Ideas: C
- In the very beginning of the day I was ready to go short into the opening range because the sectors opened somewhat weak but I went to the bathroom and MASSIVE buyers stepped in so thank god I avoided that early short trade. It was an odd day though because the second that the buyers stepped in they stepped right back out and we flushed huge on the SPY. The VOLD opened red then flipped green in that move and then immediately right back to red. ADD opened very strong then right after sold off the whole morning move and then flushed way past the LOD. TICK was EXTREME today. This is a greate example of how the TICK should look like on a very strong red day. Bearly the entire morning from 10am-1pm it was below zero with tons of values at -600. This was massive bearish depth. The sectors sold off huge as well with the defensives getting below open price pretty fast and way below their PDC. The offensives were green on the day at the open but then on that big flush they went right back to red on the day. This is all very very very bearish information and I KNEW this and I was stalking the SPY very closely waiting for a clean place to get in for a lower high and then at the very last second....I WENT LONG LOLLLLL
Problems:
1. Giving too much weight to simply a support line (on my first long trade) while disregarding the extreme bearish depth sectors and intraday chart
Solutions:
1. always trust the depth and sectors over a stupid support line
Trades:
1: Micro Continuation Intraday Reversal
2. Micro Reversal Intraday Continuation
Execution: D
- Firstly I almost went short right at 4171 right after that massive selloff. I wanted to risk 4177 which was Yday high because once we got back below that it was pretty safe to assume we would have an inside bar day which means we hold inbetween yesterdays low and yesterdays high. I wanted to get in but I knew that if I got in too low and had to stop out early I would be angry and yesterday and the day before I was too eager on my entries so I tried to be really patient for this one but instead of being aggressive like I was on wednesday and thursday, I was too patient this time. hahaha trading i guess....Well yeah I waited so long for the short trade and I ended up going long on my first attempt. The second I entered the trade I literally said out loud, "What the fuck am I doing" and my teeth were clenched the whole time because I knew I just made a terrible decision. I stopped out of that for only a 3 point loss but had I gone short it wouldve been a 10 point trade. Totally unacceptable. There were zero reasons to go long except the tiny support from yesterday. Eventually I waited and saw VOLD going more negative, Sectors looking even worse, TICK still very negative, ADD getting extreme, so I took the mid day short continuation trade. I got in at a clean lower high and I rode it back down to clear 30m support of 4145. This trade was a nice and clean 10.5 points which I am happy about but I really need to figure out why the hell I decided to go long on that first entry spot.
Problems:
1. Not aggressive enough on the first short entry
2. Completely disregarded my analysis and the market and went long where I wanted to go short
Solutions:
1. If I am within the 7 point stopout range of the trade and its a short attempt, just take it. If I fuck that up then we can talk about it afterwards but for now just do it.
2. Never ever ever ever fight the trend
Mindset: B
- I am somewhat happy that the second I entered my first trade I was immediately put into deep discomfort because I know that I made a big mistake. I stopped out at 3 points cuz I just knew that this was a terrrrible idea. Before I maybe wouldve tried to justify that bad decision by "holding to stop" or something dumb like that but this time I just knew that was a terrible idea and I have to get out before it gets ugly. I am happy that I took that mid day short when in general i bet most of retail was going long all day and getting demolished.
Missed Trade of the day:
- This was the trade that I wanted to take. That first entry was the spot I wanted to get in and if I was a pro I wouldve added on these consolidation bottom grinding red breakdowns and then sold at the same key level of 30m support at 4145 which ended up being pretty damn close to the bottom of the day. If I had done this and taken 3 contracts then that is about 20 points so about $300.
Takeaways:
- I really want to start to visualize having a clear idea, getting in, adding, and holding for the target. I think sometimes I get a little too caught up in the fact that the candles are very stressful to watch occur and I end up taking profits so fast when the thesis is clear as day. I have a hard time thinking that the trade I am in could potentially be a 20 point trade. I think that since the market is so neutral I need to still be extremely careful and know exactly what my reasons to sell are.
Reasons to sell a trade:
Intraday Key Level: PM H/L, Yday H/L,
30m key level: Large areas of consolidation
News: Something unexpected occurs in the economy
- This is the first time I ever made something like this and it will take a lot of work to tweak out all of the actual reasons to sell something and I will probably find these levels to still be not good enough because intraday key levels are sometimes perfect bait spots for people to go against the trend and we actually end up ripping through those zones. This is not the market to take 1 entry and hold all day though. I think taking back to back 10 point trades is totally possible for me and I want to be able to scalp the scalps, hold the move to moves long enough to get to target, and hold the trade to holds all damn day.
