Micro: Uptrend
- Riding bottomside of the channel for a few days now
Intraday: Downtrend
Depth:
- I dont think ive ever seen the VOLD so neutral. it hardly got above 1.4 the entire day other than the open. This is the best example of VOLD neutrality that i have ever seen. ADD was weak at the open then continued to sell down very quickly after the SPY failed its move. TICK was also extremely bearish at the open then got more neutral as the day went on.
Sectors:
- Defensives selling at the open with V on staples and consolidation at bottoms on utilities and healthcare.
- Offensives also strong selling at the open and holding below vwap all day other than discretionary which was still more or less very weak on the day. AI and semis also very weak.
Trades:
1st: Micro Continuation Intraday Reversal
2nd: Micro Reversal Intraday Continuation
Trade Ideas: B
- I was unable to identify the first short setup quick enough to take it so that was a missed trade because my idea was a little too late. The long made sense at the time because I wanted to just see if we would rocket off lows since we were within 10 points of micro uptrend channel, we broke below PDC, YDAY H, CPI data candle H, and seemed like a great place to trap a bunch of shorts once we broke below them. I stopped out quickly though because my idea was somewhat flawed given how weak the TICK VOLD and ADD were. I had the right idea though, had i kept my same stops that I had when I entered the trade it wouldve been a winner but idk if this is a trade I would want to win on given it reinforces reversal trading which we know is not profitable long term unless one is a master. The mid day short also made sense because that was my blind faith in the trend. We were just too close to the micro uptrend channel so we just couldnt sell through even tho there were ZERO buyers all day. Just because not enough buyers to rally doesnt mean we have enough sellers to push it lower.
Execution: D
- Again missed that first trade from being too late on the execution. Stopped out of the second trade because I moved my stops and risk levels. Stopped out of the 3rd trade because I had my stop level at the wrong spot. I shouldve had my stop out 1 point above the kill zone. That stop I placed was directly on the kill zone so I got top tick stopped out. I couldve moved my target higher once I saw that move and then possibly taken profits at the second breakdown attempt to LOD but chances are I wouldve held that the whole way back up to my stop anyways. All in all pretty ugly day of price action. You needed to be first or you were last.
Mindset: F
- I got really angry after losing on that second trade because I top tick stopped out and I also was holding for over an hour which took an emotional toll on me. I was snappy when I was talking to my girlfriend after losing and I think its just so childish and silly to get angry over being wrong. Guess what bro, you are gonna be wrong a fucking lot of the time and if you take out your frustration on other people they will fucking hate you. I know these things but a lot of the time I feel like my blinders are on and I am on a mission of rampage hahhaa. I wish it was simple like I could just turn off my brain the second it gets frustrated but obviously that will never happen. I need to find ways to cope with the annoyance of being incorrect in the market. I feel as though I have a better feel on the market than I ever had but somehow my win rate is still as low as its ever been. I dont understand what it will take for me to raise that up. Yes, my R is also much better than its ever been but at the same time its somewhat ridiculous at this point to have a 30% win rate. That is absurdly low.
Missed Opp:
- This was the best opp of the day and I was very close to taking it but was just a second too late. If I was a better trader I woudlve taken this and then maybe 1 more short mid day then left the market alone.
