No trades today but lets go over the trade I should have taken that aligns cleanly with my strategy
Step 1: SSL
- Here we have SSL hit which is PDL and its FOMC minutes at 2pm so its really important to understand that today is likely to be choppy in anticipation of that event. When we hit SSL and start to print candles back above it that is when I need to start paying attention.
Step 2: Internal Confluence
- At the exact same time you can see the VOLD ADD both moving higher from the open price. When I see the open price immediately go lower on the first 2m candle then push back up and break back up through the OP that is when I am starting to get interested at the idea of internals being in confluence with the SSL break.
Step 3: ICT concept for entry of reversal
- The 5m was quite bland with no FVG entries for the long side unless you waited until 10am at which time I didnt really feel comfortable taking more longs because minutes meeting. Also Internals were not really trending to the upside at 10am, in fact they were trending back down to the open price, this is not a good tie to take longs in my opinion.
- Here is maybe the only thing you could have noticed in terms of ICT concepts, first you have SSL hit, internals have confluence but now where do we enter in terms of an ICT concept? well we cant unless we are expecting a bounce back into mid point of daily FVG which I wasnt really even aware of at the time since that is such a higher timeframe. Maybe take that breakout trade when you see tons of wicks printing and holding the closures of those candles way above the daily FVG low. Even then though I think its quite ugly because I am not a breakout trader. Overall I am totally happy and okay with missing the trade and conforming to my rules.
How would I have traded WITH the trend?
- As you can see here we are clearly below the OP(Q) OP(W) so going short should be ideal in terms of conditions of higher probability. With FOMC at 2pm the whole day is kinda fucked because traps will be very evident. As you can see there are a ton of 5m FVG just getting left behind and filled that are just dumb ugly. That is why FVG is sometimes just a lot to handle unless you are combining it with some HTF concepts. As the OP(D) was broken in the morning and the VOLD was trending back down through the LOD on OP so that is probably the best place to be short. In general though this is not a trade I care to take and Id much rather just avoid it altogether and enjoy my life after avoiding the morning session.
