Coudlnt trade because of work at chincoteague but this is a pretty damn good day for my strategy. Not perfect but also pretty great. 4/5 Internals supported the short thesis and right at 10:20 it rocketed lower for 31 points total. that was a beautiful short setup, Wouldve been hard to trust given mag7 was still not that low from its OP. I think in general this market regime is all about making sure that if one thing goes and one holds, it wont matter much as its still a rotational environment. In a rotational environment we will still get strong volatile days like this one but instead of everything being together one indicator will lag behind hard. This doesnt mean that it will not selloff it just means that once the bottom is in get the hell out because it can just rip back up and recover the entire move if need be.
Why this is a good short:
1. 3/4 internals support thesis to go short
2. Mag7 is not great in terms of shorting, Unless the Indices are super good but with ADD and VOLD being such a steady slow decline just NLOD continuously for nearly 7 candle in a row This is a good short. If the VOLD and ADD both held a 10:00 data candle low then I would not think this is a good short but the ticker that must hold that low for me to be interested truly in a long is the ES and the ES broke its Data candle low nearly immediately. After it broke its low it ripped back up probably 10 or more points but then eventually failed. If you got in there once it broke the low or the PDC you could risk about 10 points and the ES shot down to its trendline for about a 20 point move after going another 20 points only an hour and a half later
3. Heres a reason to maybe not short. The daily chart had the most ridiculous rocket higher last week creating a really good low. When the market makes a low and does a 2% recovery (100 pts) in 1 single day, that is a very important thing to notice. Now this may be a good short but with that candle right behind us, It is not a good big size short. This can and will rip up at some point and you need to be ready for that. It doesnt mean you cant make 10 points with an ES but it also doenst mean you should be taking 20-30MES position unless you are 100% ready to cover for a 10 point gain max.
4. #1 reason to always just watch your back when you short. NEVER FUCKING BET AGAINST THE US ECONOMY..................EVER
Lesson/Review
June 4, 2024, 12:39 p.m.
June 5, 2024, 11:53 p.m.
Evaluation Account,
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