Session
Internals
VOLD: Downtrending all session. Not strong but so long as we are consistently making lower highs and lower lows the trend should be trusted heavily.
Weight: Morning push faded and lower highs led to lower lows. eventually when we broke the OR we really started to accelerate to the downside.
ADD: Clear downtrend
ES Trades
Trade: This was only 1 trade where I added. I only made about 2.75 points on this and for some reason I completely stopped trading ES and moved to micros to protect myself. Last friday I had a 2x max loss day which is most likely the reason for me being terrified to do something similar this friday. I added but took it off immediately when I noticed VOLD breaking back above towards OP. I think this was a smart trade given the VOLD and Weight moved higher quite early on in the session with anticipation of the news. I have seen this setup so many times before. The market is primed for a selloff but there is news coming out at 10. The anticipation of news usually holds us up in a precarious spot and then once the data hits the trend flips and we continue weak at first then strong later on. I was anticipating this to happen but for some reason I could hardly hold the micros I was trading.
MES Trades
Trades 1-3: These are all the same idea but I had too many executions. For some reason I always try to get in before the news comes on these days where they use news to set up a larger intraday move. I should have just waited for the data candle and then added on the entire way down using the data candle high as a stop out zone and using the PDC as my target. Had I done that I could have walked away with a much better day but shoulda coulda woulda. How could I have executed this better?
Possible Entries
Had I shorted 2 MES on the data candle push above its OP, then added against that spot anytime we retraced then adding once more when we made out last attempt to fakeout shorts, target PDC, get about 20 points on 5 MES. Of course that is in a perfect world but the Weight broke its OR at 10:22 while everything else was downtrending. That is clear strength. That could be a clean and simple $500.
Key Takeaways:
1. If you have a thesis use the price action in the chart to confirm or deny it. It wouldve been so simple to use the data candle high as the risk point on a short thesis targeting the next level or support in the premarket. Had I just followed the system and noticed that we were attempting to break through bottom OR on Weight, big downtrend ADD, and clean lower highs back to back on VOLD. With that type of strength we should at minimum test the next level of buyers based on the price action in the premarket. I should have used ES and added up to 3 contracts. Even if I botched the executions I
