1yr:1d Macro Downtrend
30d:30m Micro Uptrend
1d:2m Micro Uptrend
Macro: Downtrend
Micro: Uptrend
Intraday: Uptrend
Highest +EV Trades to take in this scenario: Longs
1d:2m (Webull Options Trade) Trend Reversal
- This trend reversal short trade through webull options is very very nice for many reasons. Firstly I took the trade at the perfect spot which was the retest of the trendbreak with my risk being a new high and my profit being near vwap since that is where the momentum longs sat. I got in aggressively at the top risking new high and we broke lows and I contemplated taking profits near vwap but I wanted to see a break through that zone. We didnt break and ended up pulling up really hard. Thankfully I held my position for the risk which was a break of a new high and we ended up selling back off to vwap and i sold very nicely right at the bottom before we retraced the entire move and broke back into highs. I think this is a very good example of when you are in a reversal, most of the time its smartest to take the profits at or near vwap or some other type of moving average because you just dont know if its an extended pullback or if its a full reversal back to LOD.
1d:2m (Futures Trades) Trend Reversal
- Since I am looking for scalps in futures while looking for holds with options I think this is a pretty clear example of that. I scalped these futures trades so fast where in my options trades im holding for half hour or longer. I went short 1 time when we tested a previous lower high from the premarket and risked the last high with me trying to enter as close to that previous high as possible so i could risk a very minimal amount. I stopped out for 2 points with my reward being potentially 10 points so i really liked that trade. Then in the reversal I took a short risking the previous high which was 3 points away and I held that trade for about 4 points which ill admit is a little too fast of a scalp for the trend reversal trade style. I dont think its smart to really take a trend reversal and end up only selling it for 4 points when you risked 3. That means that I am taking a trend reversal (Which is very low +EV) and only having a 1:1 Risk. This is not ideal. If I am taking a trade with very low +EV and I am only having a 1R then that is 100/100 times going to be an unprofitable strategy. The math simply does not add up. Zero edge. I ended up taking this trade in my webull account though and absolutely nailing it. I need to really dive into why I am crushing it in webull options and struggling to get real profits with futures.
