January 18, 2023 (5 Trades) (-$87.50)

Overall Grade: C-

Day Summary: Mannn, what missed opportunity today! We had a massive sell off all day today, and I couldn't capture any of it. It has been a while since we had a massive downtrending day like today, but I've seen this so much over 2022 that I should be capitalizing on days like these by now. I was actually in short at the top of this sell off and sold 1 tick below the high on the last push. Pain! But, knowing me, I would have most likely sold too early anyways. It's just so hard to go short when you see it moving this quickly down, because you don't want it to rip up in your face. Someday soon i will be recognizing this early and getting nice chunks of the continued trend! Also, today was the first day I have recorded my screen while trading, so it was good to be able to rewatch my trades today. I will continue to do that for review as long as I have the wifi for it (Travel).

DAILY - ES Futures (screenshot taken during break)

5 MIN - ES Futures

                                                    Trades

Trade 1 - Long 2 Contracts for Breakout (Breakout Trade)

Grade: B-

  • I don't mind trying this trade, but it has to be a breakout or bailout situation
  • I bought the ask after seeing support at VWAP, and a recovery. I was in the green for most of this trade, but it ended up failing
  • My biggest problem here was not stopping out quick enough. I should have stopped below the body of the candle I entered on
  • If managed properly, risk here could have been about $20 to make $60-70

FIX: Breakout or Bailout on Breakout Trades

 

Trade 2 - Short 1 Contract @ Bottom of 5 Min Supply Zone

Grade: C-

  • Rushed this entry (FOMO) - In my head I literally told myself to wait until it reached the trend line before entering but I lacked self-control in this moment
  • If I had entered at the trendline, i would have set my stop above the previous red candle which was never tested, and this then sold off massively
  • Also didn't know exactly what level I was risking when i entered this trade
  • I need to give trades space to work, even if that means taking them with smaller size (even though this trade was only with 1 contract)
  • I only stopped this trade for a $10 loss, why the fuck am I stopping out before even letting it get to a sensable level

FIX: Have your risk at a level that is a clear sign your thesis is broken

 

Trade 3 - Short 2 Contracts @ Trendline (Trend Continuation)

Grade: B-

  • This trade mann -_- Stopped the high by 1 Tick
  • This was the last candle before the massive 80 point sell off happened
  • Again, not giving the trades enough room to work (probably bc at this point I was 0-2 on the day and already down $55)
  • Stop should have been high of big red candle (2min) - If I had stuck to that I could have captured the beginning of the sell off with 2 contracts
  • I probably would have covered at LOD, but still

FIX: Have your risk at a level that is a clear sign your thesis is broken. Be confident in your thesis!

 

Trade 4 - Long 2 Contracts ("It's Over Extended" is not a set up)

Grade: D-

  • Avoid this trade at all costs
  • This is just overtrading here. No need for this.
  • Luckily made back $15 here - and I want to put enphasis on lucky
  • This could have crashed through the floor and I coulda been down another $50+ easy

FIX: DON'T FIGHT THE TREND

 

Trade 5 - Long 2 Contracts ("Now It's Definitely Over Extended" is not a set up)

Grade: F

  • Fucking stop doing this
  • Buying the dip and hoping for a bounce is a recipe for disaster
  • I was longing this with 2 contracts down here which just shows Trade 4 & 5 were revenge trades
  • Lost all the money I made back plus some because I'm fighting the trend. So hard for the candles to push up at all but they fail easily

FIX: DON'T FIGHT THE MF TREND !!!! THAT'S LESSON #1 WE LEARNED FROM LARGE CAPS IN 2022 ("It's Over Extended" is not a set up)!!

 

Takeaways: I need to get more aggressive when I see good trending days. This is the time when it is easiest to let the market work for you. It literally can't get much easier than today. Beautiful downtrend!  I know it is hard to short such an aggresive down move but when you see it failing over and over again, you can trust that your chances of winning are much higher. These are the days that the big money can be made and I keep missing them. I am working on following the trend more, and today was a perfect day for that. I need to catch this next time.

 

Easy Money: SHORT!! Follow The Trend!