Micro: Uptrend
-Bounced perfeclty off the micro trendline.
Futures
1d:5m
1st and 2nd Trades: Micro Continuation Intraday Continuation
- Both of these trades are not really bad. The only thing that I did incorrectly was not trust my indicators and my analysis enough. If I wouldve just trusted the VOLD and the ADD and the TICK with all the XLK (tech) XLY(consumer discretionary) and SMH (semiconductors) then I wouldve given this trade another chance. I shouldve kept going for it after missing on the first 2 tries. That was a big mistake. I stopped out on my second trade 2 points from the low. I have no idea why I didnt just respect that previous higher low and risk off of that instead of just getting out the second it broke the candle I entered in.
Options
1d:5m
Trade: Micro Continuation Intraday Continuation
- I stopped out perfeclty at the low hahaha. Again I have no idea why I didnt just risk the previous higher low. In reality I should be risking at least 1 points below the previous higher low. I placed this stop about 20 cent above the previous higher low. Only problem is we tapped that level perfectly and still made a higher low to continue to push through HOD.
How should I have traded this day?
- The best way I couldve traded this is if I got in at the next higher low and risked about 1 point below the last higher low (oval area) and then added on the next pullback. Sell half at HOD and hold the second half to HOD. It seems silly to say that I would hold this to HOD but there are actually a few reasons why I think that should always be the goal on a day like today. (below)
1.
- The VOLD (left) was very extreme the entire day. We had all values hold above 3 and at midd day we started to incline the trend back to a new HOD. You can see how buy pressure started to slowly increase once lunch was over. That is a huge sign that a trend day is happening. Usually on the VOLD when the market is going to move in the opposite direction the VOLD will start to trend in that direction. Since the VOLD trended higher I would trust it enough for a hold to EOD.
- The ADD was somewhat tricky to read. We soldoff largely at the open but like the VOLD we found a bottom quickly and then started to trend higher throughout the day
- TICK was a mess to look at. It was not much of a help today because albeit yes from 1030 - 1230 we held a lot above 0 but the red of the day it was just a ranging mess
2.
ETFs
Top Row (left to right) Consumer Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, Volatility, Gold
Bottom Row (left to right) Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Communication Services, Semiconductors, Financials
- All ETFs on the top row are RISK OFF ETFs while all ETFs on the bottom row are RISK ON. If you think about it, all the risk on ETFs make perfect sense. When the economy is fine we want to have risky things to invest in. Those things include, technology (TSLA), Semiconductors (NVDA), Consumer discretionary (AMZN), Communication Services (T), and Financials like KRE. Normally they are not risk on but since some failed they are very sensitive to news and if they move the market usually follows at least for this current time period. Then all risk off ETFs make sense as well. If the economy is not doing good then what would people buy? They would buy essentials only such as Staples (WMT) Utilities (water, electricity, etc) Healthcare, Gold, Volatility.
- The etfs on the bottom are rallying up higher almost all day while the ones on the top are flat if not red. That is a big sign that we should rally for the rest of the session. Thus helping me hold that potential trade that wouldve been the best trade of the day.
