October 26th, 2022
1d:2m
1d:2m $SPY 1st Trade: FOMO, Opening Drive
-Ahh what a disgusting trade that made zero sense. Bought the vwap pullup because I just assumed we would break lower after being biased for really no reason whatsoever. We were in a massive bullish uptrend and we didnt pull back strongly yet. I used yesterdays ranges near the highs to look at as resistance and that just doesnt make sense when we are in a bullish move. Those shouldve been looked at as an area for the spy to break on higher lows, not as an area to expect resistance. That only makes sense when we are in a micro downtrend not a micro uptrend. Even though I called this an opening drive I went technically in the wrong direction because opening drives work in the direction of the micro trend, not in macro. Bad trade and bad thesis.
How to avoid in the future: Wait ur dumbass until 10 to look for trades. You know this.
1d:2m $SPY 2nd Trade: FOMO, Opening drive
-Another identical version of the last trade. Stupid opening drive breakdown attempt. I also had my order stop wayyyy too tight and got stopped out so fast for a 15 dollar loser on a 50 delta contract. Makes no sense to take contracts that big when u know u are gonna sell it on a 20 cent rip. Need to give it more room and also need to not go for the same setup multiple times unless its trend continuation because that just doesnt work.
How to avoid: Same as before. Wait until 10. Dont take opening drives in direction of micro trend.
Easy Money:
-This was the opening drive trade. You take the break of the wedge once we fakeout shorts to the downside. Still need to wait for a serious pullback but god damn that wouldve been an awesome trade even though the first fakeout was missed.
- Higher low trend continuation trades. Kinda dont like putting them in the easy money section just because they are not easy to take, although with the proper stops and targets with smaller size they could be wont at a higher rate.
How do I catch this huge backside move in the future?
- I am not sure I couldve ever really taken this trade because its just so sketchy on the morning trading that showed itself. We had a grinding green day setting up but it failed epicly. In general this setup is still a big no to take just because this looks so much like a grinding green day. Instead of thinking of this in terms of a trend reversal the only way it couldve been taken was to look at it as a supply zone. BUT there is not really a supply zone here until a little bit higher. This is why supply and demand zone trading is so difficult. It can easily fly above the supple or shoot below the demand or maybe sell of right before supply or catch buyers right before demand. It all comes down to how the zone is drawn in terms of price action. Its probably smartest to just draw the biggest ones you could imagine drawing then once it enters that zone you must wait and see how it reacts instead of just taking it blindly. Then you can allow price discovery to occur and the price action will find the spot for you instead of you guessing or basing it off of sketchy price action
