Well fuck me. I had 2 really great trades for my style becuase I usually am never one to chase a trend but rather wait for the other side of the V. Today I took 2 trades where I went with the trend and I actually made money haha. I knew these setups existed but I never took them before and its really a great sign that I am able to branch out to different setups other than my main BEMS and Trend Reversal trades.

1st Trade: Short Trend Trade

This is a pretty perfect trade in terms of a failed move higher trend trade to the downside. So we broke down huge on the daily chart right after we had CPI come out. This is basically a massive trend change back to the downside again. Usually on an intraday timeframe this type of trend change would retest the area of the trend break. Not today (perhaps this week) but today we continued lower and I was very hesitant to take this trade bcause we were sitting right at the 400 level and I knew that if we were going to bounce here it would be very signficant. Luckily I took the break down anyway just because the momentum was clearly heavily to the downside and I didnt want to watch this setup happen yet again and me not be in it. I finally pulled the trigger with only 1 contract and it was a delta of about 35. I took my profits at around 75 cents which was cool as well because instead of using my hard targets that I usually use I just let the trade ride out and keep my stops mental. It worked out beautifully. Made about 20 on this trade which is quite significant becuase I usually only make about 40 on my normal setups in a per trade basis. For me to make a 75 cent trade that is actually a ton more than I normally make on my trend reversal and BEMS trades.

2nd Trade: Short Trend Trade

Again same exact setup as before where I watch for a failed move higher and then a breakdown through the green attempted trend change candle. I will go further into the potential entries in a moment. This one worked out very smoothly yet again. I was definitly close to stopping out which basically was the 20ema for me. I held through to my thesis of a new low though. Unfortunately I had so much money that I left on the table yet again on both of these setups. I will now go over how I can actually identify and clarify what the targets and entries should be on trend trades like this one.

What do these setups form in terms of price action?

These are not entries but they are just an overview of what these trend trades look like. The way that they work is there is a bottom formed then a mini 5 minute trends that counter the normal trend (downside trend macro and mini fake frontside attempts). On this move today it is important to note that they usually do not go higher than the last low. Aka they make a lower low and hold the last lower low. Checkout the 2nd arrow and see how that green push failed at the exact same spot as the first low signalled with the first arrow.

Here is another day where we had a large selloff and a continuation to the downside with much further selling after the initial breakdown. Again you can see that there are multiple moves that fail to go higher and create a lower low. 

Here is a more nuanced example. This day did not have any CPI, PPI, or JP influences so the selloff was much weaker and these trades were quite hard to grasp. If you notice in the center in green there is actually a much cleaner trend reversal setup in this chart rather than trend changes.

Last Example: Here again is a clean downtrend with failed moves higher. Now lets look at where we should be entering and exiting in terms of asking the question, "Where is the highest Expected Value?"

Where do you Enter?

This is all from only September 13th, 2022

A: Here is for sure the worst EV but ONLY if we are broken above the previous lower low. In the case where we are below a lower low it actually has the highest EV with the highest R which is quite rare in my world of trading. Usually my setups have high EV but low R and you either exchange one for the other, never have both. 

B: This is the first pop after attempting to break the 2m mini uptrend. I think this has some potential for an entry if you miss the first entry of A. OR if A is above the previous lower low then this is actually a very good EV trade and in this specific example. The point of me identifying these entries is how I figure out all of the potential reasons why certain entries are very good or very bad depending on very many nuances. Every setup that ever existed has so many nuances to it that make it either good or bad. The only way to size up and really learn when to use exponential bet sizing is to do exactly what im doing now so just bare with me. 

C: Here is probably the worst EV trade because lower lows are being attempted but they are not broken yet and we could use this as a fakeout to the downside. This has a very awful R but in these specific example it actually has a decent EV but this is also the biggest red day of the entire year so this is quite rare. We will look at more common red days after analyzing these rare specific scenarios.

D. Here again seems like a very good EV trade on this example but I am not so sure that that is the case on a daily basis or just a normal red day.

I will rank the rest with a simple 1-4 and a very quick reasoning why

A: 1 Broke immediately below the previous lower low

B: 4 Again this is the potential fakeout zone

C: 2 First pop after trend break down seems quite nice so far

D: 3 on today its great but probably not very commonly good

This example is quite awful so ill just leave it in here to identify that its pretty fuckin ugly because its so far below the previous lower low and it just is unlikely for another meaningul selloff to happen again after such a strong move down. Best to avoid this at all times.

A:  

B:

C:

D:

1d:2m (left) 1d:5m (right)

This is by far the best setup in terms of a further selloff downwards and at first glance you would think that this actually seems very tricky and hard to capture (I wont disagree) because we broke a previous high and faked out on a lower low. Although this is true, we had a really heavy top and it wouldve been very unlikely for the SPY to break the psych level of 400 and the previous lower low that happened on the very top left of this screenshot. See how we topped out at the low that occured in the morning session.

A: 1 Incredible EV. Incredible R. Best by far, only because we are sitting right below 400 AND we are below 399.7 which is that low from the beginning of the day

B: 4 Super sketchy, never short the exact trendline

C: 2 After failed high and attemtping a new lower low this is decent place to take short risking the previous higher high (A) 

D: 4 Eh pretty bad (same as B) 

Okay yeah this is great but this was the biggest red day of the year lets see something more day-to-day

Holy shit no way im about to go over a potential long setup.

Here again we have some awesome trending moves. First lower low attempt is held right at previous day close and we broke back through the mini downtrend and flew up through for a breakout. We went sideways yet again and held the previous higher high and then moved higher again.Here is the examples:

A: 2 Here we have an attempted failed move higher. Pretty risky entry here just because we have not held the previous higher highs. We are slightly below that zone.

B: 2 Again im not sure these trend breaks are the best places to get in just because you really have no fucking clue if its just a fakeout or attempted lower high

C: 1 Clearly on this specific example this is the best entry but thats pretty easy to say after the fact and looking at the charts after. 

D: 3 Just ew. I dont give a fuck what is going on no fucking way im buying a breakout lol. 

I really like this example because this day has multple setups that I could have taken. Firstly we have a trend break down and a continuation setup right at the beginning of the day on that first miniature uptrend. Seconly, we have a strong uptrend that fails strongly and then retest the area of the trend break (white oval at top of screenshot) which couldve given amazing returns although it was wildly tricky of a trade to take. 

That first failed bove higher broke strongly above the previous lower high so that top entry would probably be very difficult to take with high conviction. When they break and then spike back up into the trend that seems like one of the best entries across the board because in general it seems like trends rarely actually stay perfectly above or below the higher high or lower low like it did in all those first examples that were pulled from today because today was the biggest red day of the entire year so clearly the trend setups will be much cleaner. 

This is a super tricky example of a trend that continues downwards. Here we have very few clean upward trends and tons of fakeouts. Perhaps there is a way to enter without really having to identify tons of entries and just taking the breakdown of the lower low seems awesome in this scenario but idk that just feels so chasey to me for me to really thing thats a great idea.