September 29th, 2022
-Not a bad day. Took 2 nice wins but sized down on the second trade and got complacent with my profits so I backed off even though I really shouldve waited for these super clean bread and butter setups that occurred late in the day. My internet was also very spotty today so I kinda wanted to just take my wins and fuck off so I am not too annoyed about the money I missed out on but I also do think I couldve came back and traded the clean setup that occurred around 12:00. Pure easy money and nothing else.
1yr:1d
1d:2m
1st Trade: Trend Continuation Short
-I narrowly avoided a bunch of uglier setups today that occurred earlier in the session because I had very spotty internet. To be honest, I dont know if I wouldve had this good of a day if the internet didnt cause me to compeltely ditch my main setups becuase that first green long bounce that is under the oval in the above picture was really my setup and if I took the aggressive entry it would not have worked and I wouldve probably lost money. I do think though that in general on days like this where we are really close to the lows I really should not be going for long trades no matter how juicy they may seem. This trade here is a great example of a setup that I saw a few days ago where we broke down then started grinding higher and then once we broke the trend yet again to the downside it continues much lower. A perfect place to take a short entry. I took this with my 2x size and made $50 on it pretty fast. I waited for that really nice entry and let my target and stops hold for the entire move. I am really happy about this trade even though it spiked right back up after. I will explain this setup in much more detail below my 2nd trade.
2nd Trade: Trend continuation/Trend Reversal Short
-Again this is the same exact setup as the last trade but again I narrowly avoided a loser by having my target set and this dropped with a doji and hit my target perfectly. I used half size on this becuase I was truly just unknowing if this was going to work or not. When we popped back above the oval area it just started to get sketchier and sketchier. I made a nice $25 very fast profit on this trade as well. In and out in less than 1 minute.
The Setup that I was basing this trade off of:
-This trade here was my identified "Easy money" trade of the day 2 sessions ago. See how we have an initial downtrend then we catch a bottom and start to move in an uptrend. Once we break that uptrend we retested the break zone and then continued a lot lower throughout the day. This is a nice setup but it would be hard to take because the retest was a lot higher than the initial break zone. Let me compare this to todays chart.
-The arrows labeled (1) was the trade that I took and the second arrows in the middle of the chart is the trade that I missed. The 2nd trade was much cleaner than the first trade. The only thing that I dont like about this hypothetical easy money trade is the fact that I drew the uptrend without including all of the price action. If you see the left side of the chart I did not include the bottoming wick that occurred. Let me show you what it would look like if I included that wick. (its a lot different)
-See how this trend includes ALL of the price action. This is the best way to take this trade on the day. This is technically a continuation trade to the downside (x2) but it also is a trend reversal trade to the downside if you consider that bounce move that occurred in the middle of the day to be an uptrend. This trade (x2) is the best "easy money" trade of the day. If I was able to stick around all day and take this then I wouldve crushed it. I probably couldve used even 3 contracts on this just becuase its really so beautiful. WE broke the trend to the downside perfectly then retetsted that trend once then twice and on the second attempt we flew down through the daily low and had an awesome move. I wouldve loved to that this trade with 4 contracts then hold that last contract as a partial and wait for the true target which technically is a new lower low. If I had held that entire time I wouldve made a shit ton of money. If I used 4 contracts on that trade and took 3 at my 50 cent target then sold the next one at the low then it would be about a 150 dollar trade. If I had also taken that x1 trade then that wouldve put me up a lot on the day. Obviously if I was going for this setup multiple times I probably wouldve had at least 1 loser in there but still if I took the trades I took for 75 then took 1 loser for maybe 35 then taken x1 and x2 then I wouldve walked away with a ton of money. I do think that this kind of trading is possible it just requires so much patience that I truly would have to just sit here all day and just wait for these to jump out at me and I would have to take them out of instinct rather than forcing money.
-Here is same setup with less trends. This was by far the easiest money of the day right here. If I took some of those other trades I posted above plus this plus my 2 winners that I had already taken then wow it really couldve been a home run type of day.
-Important note on how I messed up my swing trade. Once we broke 363 in the morning I really shouldve taken my loss but instead I just held and added at a really shitty spot. Ideally this is where I shouldve taken my swing and held into tomorrow for the high probability gap up. We tested lows yet again today and had a really nice trendbreak reversal to the upside. Sadly, I took it wayyy too early and just destroyed my swing account for the 3rd day in a row.
-Which trade is the best?
The answer is C because the highest EV comes from a FULL PRICE ACTION trendbreak. It cannot include only partial price action. On entry A even though I took it and made money I do think that its really not that great of a trade. B and even C are much cleaner than the A entry. I made my entire daily profit on the A move but again B and C are sooo much cleaner. C especially is very clean because full price action trendline. B is nice because we have a break of the trendline then a vwap breakdown but again A and B dont include the full price action. I really need to start noticing this more often because if I can find out these huge EV plays and start to size even bigger into them then hold my partial ONLY when we have FULL PRICE ACTION trendlines then I really could make a killing off of this setup. It is important to note though that this setup does not occur everyday.
-This is another example from the other day. I really couldnt be mad if I had taken the A entry but I would have to be very patient and wait for the cleaner versio that occurred at B. See how B includes all of the price action instead of only a partial. On the A entry it wouldve been very hard to avoid taking because up until that break of vwap it looks very similar to the setup that occurrs at B. IF I wouldve taken the perfect entry on A I probably wouldve still walked away with profit because it did drop 50 cents right after that trendbreak but on B you can see that it did not come even close to breaking above that trendline once it broke below. On A that shouldve been a red flag that we broke back above the trendline.
