Trade Details: July 18, 2024

• Status: Closed
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 18, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 9:30 Open Downside Drive
  • Break & Retest
  • Pre Market Open Short
  • Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap
  • Support Turned Resistance
  • VWAP Upperband to Lowerband
  • Weekly Draw on Liquidity Low

Notes:

Market Conditions and Execution:

• Woke up past my alarm but identified a break and retest setup which aligned with my trading strategy.
• The pre-market open served as support, which broke, and then retested as resistance.
• Entered the short trade as the price moved through the overnight gap between the prior day's close and the pre-market open.
• Targeted the next draw on liquidity, which was the weekly low, following the direction of the prevailing trend.
• Observed that using the M5 chart provided better entry opportunities with minimal drawdown, and high hit rate.
• Noted that the draw on liquidity approach has been effective in predicting the next target.

Insights and Strategy Adjustments:

• Plan to monitor potential bounces at the 20D (Month Low) and recent liquidity sweeps at the weekly low in future sessions.
• If bulls fail to hold the level, the next target could be the prior month low, which is a significant distance away.
• Consider waiting for prior order block entries on smaller timeframes if a bullish trend shift occurs off the monthly level.
• Realized the importance of sizing correctly and the impact it could have had on the trade's profitability. Missed an opportunity to size appropriately due to waking up late and acting on gut instinct.
• Emphasized the importance of proper candle timeframe alignment for better trade timing, reducing premature entries, and ensuring high accuracy.

Performance and Reflection:

• The trade went in my favor, and the setup was validated by the break and retest pattern.
• Noted that waiting for the right candle timeframe alignment to provide liquidity has been beneficial for accurate trade timing.
• Identified the need for better pre-market preparation to avoid missing sizing opportunities and maximize trading potential.

Updated Trading Rules and Checklist:

1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:

   • Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
   • Incorporate Weekly Draw on Liquidity, Inverse FVG, and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.

2. Entry Criteria:

   • Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
   • Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, Break & Retest, and FVGs for precise entry points.

3. Stop Loss and Targets:

   • Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
   • Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.

4. Execution Strategy:

   • Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
   • Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.

5. Data Collection and Analysis:

   • Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
   • Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.

6. Avoid Overtrading:

   • If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability order blocks.

7. Premarket Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
   • Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.

8. Mental Preparedness:

   • If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
   • Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.

9. VWAP Tracking:

   • Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
   • Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.

10. Incorporate Weekly Analysis:

    • Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
    • Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.

11. Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:

    • Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
    • Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.

12. Entry Size and Risk Management:

    • Ensure proper position sizing using the position size calculator before entering a trade.
    • Avoid trading based on gut instinct and ensure all trades align with the predefined strategy and setup criteria.

Please provide the next trade entry and notes for further analysis and refinement.

4o

I woke up past my alarm clock, but I seen a trade setup present itself, and it went in my favor.

This was a break and retest setup/support turned resistance play for the premarket open serving as support in the premarket, which broke, went through the overnight gap between the prior day close and pre market open, and I took it for further downside toward the next draw on liquidity which was the weekly low. As that is the direction the market was still trending. 

Draw on liquidity has worked well thus far with predicting the next target for me, and its a very simplistic approach of where the trend is likely to go next due to prior price action trend with multi-timeframe analysis. 

Another I noted, was that the M5 chart may provide slightly better opportunities for entry for the time being, due to the higher timeframe levels being presented at the moment, and it appears the M5 variations provided no drawdown upon entry with high hit rate, so for now I will execute on that timeframe unless the data suggests otherwise. 

Going into tomorrows trading session, I will be watching for a potential bounce at the 20D (Month Low) and for the most recent sweep on liquidity at the weekly low, to potentially hold for a bounce. If the bulls fail to hold the level tomorrow, I would expect that the next DOL is the prior month low, which is quite far away. There is also a 61.8% retracement level between the 30D Low to High. And since the range will likely be very large from a bearish to bullish trend shift, it may be smart to wait for prior orderblock entries on the smaller timeframes, if we do happen to get that bullish trend shift off of this monthly level. 

I should have hit the trade I entered today with more size, but because my alarm clock didnt go off, I was unable to properly size, and because I went off gut instinct, I only took 1 contract. If I sized correctly, it likely could have been around an $800-$900 trading day.

Another thing that has been helping tremendously is waiting for the proper candle timeframe alignment for the move, when that specific candle is actually offer the buy side or sell side liquidity that Im expecting, I think that is the best way to actually time my trades. Other then getting in too early and getting stopped out with death by 1000 cuts. And while providing that liquidty, it also provides a trend shift & variation to ensure high accuracy & the A+ side of a setup.