1PM Sell SIde, 9:30 Open Downside Drive, H12 Bullish Trend Failure, H12 Line In The Sand, H12 Range, H6 Bullish Order Block, Higher DOL, Lower DOL, PML Short, Trend Below Lowerband, V Shaped Recovery, vwap bounce, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Details:

• Entry Time: 8:17 PM
• Status: Closed
• Asset: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 1PM Sell Side
  • 9:30 Open Downside Drive
  • H12 Bullish Trend Failure
  • H12 Line In The Sand
  • H12 Range
  • H6 Bullish Order Block
  • Higher DOL
  • Lower DOL
  • PML Short
  • Trend Below Lowerband
  • V Shaped Recovery
  • VWAP Bounce
  • VWAP Lowerband To Upperband
  • VWAP Upperband Short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Notes:

• 9:27 AM: Short bias due to H12 downtrend. Expected no significant bullish trend shift until breaking above 19380.
• 11:40 AM: Initial losses from failing to act on short entry signals at PML, chasing shorts, and not taking profits on scalps. Added to a losing position, increasing risk.
• 3:38 PM: Managed to recover losses and finished the day up $1200 by shorting after a failed H12 bullish move. This trade capitalized on VWAP Upperband rejection in an extended range.
• General Observations:
  • Day began with mixed signals, leading to initial losses due to mismanagement and aggressive positions.
  • Recovered by identifying a strong short setup based on multiple confluences: H12 trend, VWAP levels, and range top.
  • Emphasized the importance of defining and respecting the 'Line In The Sand' level for future trades.

Key Takeaways:

• Right:

  • Successfully identified a high-probability short setup and executed it effectively, recovering from earlier losses.
  • Recognized the significance of multiple timeframe analysis and VWAP interactions.

• Wrong:

  • Initial mismanagement of trades, including chasing positions and not cutting losses promptly.
  • Over-leveraging on initial trades led to significant drawdowns.

Outcome: Closed the day with a $1200 profit after recovering from initial losses.

Overall Summary: The trading session was challenging due to mixed signals and initial mismanagement. However, the user was able to turn the day around by sticking to their analysis and executing a high-confluence short trade at the VWAP Upperband. The session highlighted the importance of defining and respecting key levels ('Line In The Sand') and managing risk more effectively.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

9:27 AM. Currently short biased. H12 is downtrending, and for it to trend shift, would be above the 19380 area. And even if the market does happen to shift from our candles perspective. The move actually wouldnt be provided until tomorrow because the daily is still downtrending. As well as the weekly, which has another DOL lower through more buy orders.

11:40. I fked up today big time, didnt take the short entry signal at the break of the PML, chased short way to low. Didnt take profit on the scalp I should have. Didnt cut a multiple signals. Added to a losing trade when the A side of the setup was invalidated. All because I wanted to be a dick for a tick. 

3:38PM. WOW. traded my way back to positive, and also finished the day up $1200. Faded the upward break attempt of the H12 candle at the top of the range, and shorted all the way back down, I got a sell signal from the upperband of the daily VWAP. And although I was risking a squeeze, I thought it was less likely because we were at the top of a very extended range.

Todays trading day was very back and forth, alot of stress, and I spent most of the day trading at my screen. My brain is fried. The market opened in the center of the VWAP and top band, Since it was obviously in the center of a range, I decided not to short off of the open, but I came into the session short biased because of the overnight DOL and the lower DOL on higher timeframes. I was also aware that there are alot of buy limit orders below, and I figured we would spend another day driving into all of that liquidity to the sell side, and yet again trapping longs on the day somehwat like yesterdays price action.So the market fell below VWAP off of the open, and because the top wick of the next M2 candle was slightly below the VWAP, I knew that there was a chance that my buystop long trade at the trend reversal on M2 could fail. So i was anticipating that I would at minimum have to wait for the bar to close above the VWAP on the reversal if I was going to take the market off of the open.It porceeded to drop lower,and came back to the the VWAP, in my mind I was thinking it was a good place to short, but I decided to pass up on the trade. At the spot where it says 'missed short' was a trend confirmation entry to the downside, which I figured was a continuation trap on longs from the bottom VWAP band. But I passed up on the trade. I didnt know if it was going to rip against me. Like a dummy, I chased short, and what do you know. it ripped against me. I also was in profit on my chased short, but stupidly did not cover profit at a clear take profit level. The trade went against me, stopped me out, I re entered short at what I thought was the bottom of the range, but what do you know, complete V Shaped recovery. The worst part about this loss wasnt the stopout, It was that I went it too heavy and lost more money than I should have.I collected my thoughts, and seen a simple easy money trade setting up at the VWAP as it was ascending higher, and got my M2 confirmation for an entry. My target was the top of the VWAP band at 19320.Above that, was and H12 candle that has yet to break its trend, with the line in the sand being 19380 on the session, and I actually spotted this level the day prior, and told Paul about the entry. Well, since it was the top of the range, and the next chart over from H12 on the daily trend was very far away, with it also aligning with my prior day analysis, at the top of an extended range from the top VWAP band, I decided on taking the short.It was a very uncomfortable trade, and I was likely sized a bit heavier than I should be, but it just felt like a very A+ trade that I didnt want to pass up on.There were so many confluences. H12 top range, over extended market, VWAP Upperband setup, still downtrending on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Spotted day prior. Was waiting for potential 1PM sell side, which I stated in group chat.With that being said, I think I can for sure with confidence, officially define the 'Line In The Sand' on each trading session, with the H12 high or low depending on its trend. We will now implement this in the future. 

Oh, and I could have waited for the 'Line In The Sand' Level to have triggered, and waited for the turn of M2 and M5 to go short. It was also a technical stoploss level, because it was risking a squeeze higher. In the future I will have to remember to implement this concept so that I can avoid getting in the trade too early. The 'Line In The Sand' could have acted at Buy Side Liquidity for this trading session, signaling that early shorted could get squeezed before the liquidity is ran. The moment it hit the level, ran the liquidity and had a price action response off of the level, could have been our trigger to get short with new HOD stops. 

VWAP (MONTH), VWAP (MONTH) Upperband To Lowerband, vwap bounce, VWAP Long, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Summary for July 23, 2024

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Trade Details:

• Entry Time: 12:01 AM
• Status: Closed
• Portfolio: APEX 50K EVAL/Lance B System
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: /MNQN24
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • VWAP (MONTH)
  • VWAP (MONTH) Upperband To Lowerband
  • VWAP Bounce
  • VWAP Long
  • VWAP Upperband Short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Notes:

• 10:05 AM:

  • Initiated a short position at the break of the prior day’s low (PML) during the premarket session.
  • Noticed a gap between the prior day's close and the premarket open, indicating a potential shift in direction.
  • Recognized displacement below the key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, confirming a bearish bias.
  • After a failed long trade attempt off the VWAP band, confirmed the shift in direction and shorted the PML as it was the only clear stop-loss placement.

• Trade Execution:

  • The trade was immediately profitable, indicating strong downside pressure with no drawdown from the entry point.
  • Decided to let the trade run without a specific downside target, anticipating a trend day based on the weekly chart moves and the strong sell-side pressure.

• Market Behavior:

  • Observed consistent lower lows with no retests of the entry price, reinforcing the strength of the entry.
  • The VWAP and Lowerband continued to downtrend, acting as a continuation sell signal with massive downside volume.

• Outcome:

  • Took a walk and decided to lock in profits upon return, closing the trade with over $500 in profit, pushing the account balance over $1,000.

---

Additional Notes:

• End-of-Day Reflection:

  • Achieved the biggest profit day on the account, totaling over $1,200.
  • Increased trading frequency based on the notes suggesting the VWAP trade as an "easy money trade."
  • Faced a critical moment with a VWAP dip buy that came close to blowing the account but was saved by the monthly VWAP support.
  • Acknowledged the risk of trading too heavily, with a full position size of 16+ contracts, and the importance of not over-leveraging with a trailing drawdown.

• Key Takeaways:

  • Successful in capitalizing on the VWAP patterns and adhering to the identified signals.
  • Realized the importance of managing position size and avoiding excessive risk.
  • Future trades will be limited to entering 1 micro at a time and building positions incrementally to manage risk effectively.

Key Lessons:

• Right:

  • Accurately identified the VWAP lower band as a support level, leading to a well-timed short entry.
  • Trusted the VWAP signals and followed the identified patterns, resulting in significant profits.

• Wrong:

  • Took on excessive risk by trading too heavily with 16+ contracts, nearly risking the account.
  • Averaging down to improve price, although it worked out this time, it is not a sustainable strategy given the trailing drawdown.

Overall Summary: This trade highlighted the effectiveness of using VWAP patterns and signals to identify high-probability trades. While the execution led to significant profits, it also underscored the importance of risk management and the dangers of over-leveraging. The adjustment to trading frequency and position sizing will be crucial for sustaining future success and protecting the account from significant drawdowns.

 

 

 

 

Today I made a great deal of money, my biggest day on this account since I began, in total, I made over $1200 dollars. and I did it in part because I did tweak my 2 trade rule today, and I actually spent most of the day involved in a trade, and its because I realize that I need to pick up my trading frequency on the trade that has been suggested from my notes, and that is my VWAP trade. It seems to currently be my 'easy money trade'. And I just decided to keep taking the signals and trusting the outcome. 

I will same, I came waaay to close to blowing the account today, and that was with a VWAP dip buy, that was saved by the Month VWAP. It wound up sweeping the 9:30 Open Low, taking the long stops from the morning session, and then ripping in my direction. It really was a make or break moment for this account, and I nearly lost it. I was waaay to heavy in size, at full position was around 16 plus contracts. I can never do that again. I was averaging down to improve my price, and although it went in my direction, thats besides the point. You simply cant trade that size with trailing drawdown ever. 

So therefor, If I want to increase my trading frequency, I can only enter 1 Micro at a time, and build a position with 1 Micro at a time. With this particular trade, I was slapping the trade with 2 micros at a time. And its too heavy.

The only way I can add is with A side setups, and confirmations through multiple timeframes. 

78.6% Fibonacci Long, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bullish Pre Market, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Entry, M1 green bar trail stop, Mean reversion , Mean Reversion Long, Missed Target, Pre Market Low to ATH Failure 78.6% Fib, vwap bounce,

Based on your detailed notes, here are some insights and recommendations for refining your trading approach:

Insights from Your Trade

1. Early Preparation:

   • Waking up early and being on the charts well before market open (7:30 AM) is crucial. This allows you to analyze pre-market conditions thoroughly and plan your trades effectively.

2. Utilizing Premarket Analysis:

   • Your use of the premarket open print theory and mean reversion (50% Fibonacci) to identify potential entry areas shows a structured approach to capturing trades aligned with the prevailing upward trend.

3. Trade Execution on M1 Chart:

   • Executing based on the M1 chart for a bearish to bullish variation at the change in trend reflects your ability to adapt quickly to market dynamics.

4. Targeting Draw on Liquidity (DOL):

   • Targeting the ATH or VWAP upper band for profit-taking aligns with your strategy of capitalizing on liquidity zones and market inefficiencies.

5. Stop Loss Management:

   • Trailing your stop loss at each prior green bar shows risk management discipline. However, tightening it too much resulted in missing out on potential profits during the final squeeze.

Recommendations for Refinement

1. Optimize Trailing Stop Strategies:

   • Track data on various timeframes (as you mentioned, reviewing M1 entries and considering M15 for trailing) to determine optimal trailing stop strategies. This analysis can help you avoid being stopped out prematurely while maximizing profits.

2. Partial Profit Taking:

   • Consider taking partial profits rather than closing the entire position at once. This strategy allows you to lock in some gains while leaving room for further upside potential, thereby optimizing your risk-reward ratio.

3. Journal and Analyze:

   • Continue journaling your trades, including detailed observations and decisions. Use this journal to systematically review what worked well and areas for improvement after each session.

4. Review and Adjust Post-Session:

   • Conduct a thorough review of each trading session in hindsight, as you did, to identify patterns or setups that consistently lead to profitable trades. Use this analysis to refine your trading rules and approach over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a good trading session. I woke up early, and was on the charts around 7:30 AM. And yet again, we were going for another ATH draw on liquidity.

During this time, I started out by utilizing my premarket open print theory for where buyers were located in the premarket session, and around 8 am, I noticed that we were likely at the near end of the move as the draw target at the ATH was almost reached, and the superior trend was also obviously bullish, so I decided to input my 'mean reversion' 50% fibonacci, from the premarket low to premarket high so that I can calculate a potential area to get involved for the continuation to the upside.

Well, thats the exact opportunity that was presented shortly after the 9:30 opening bell.I noticed that there was pretty close confluence between the 50% mean reversion and the VWAP.

So to get a good R/R entry, I executed the trade on the M1 chart, and decided to simply target the DOL (Draw On Liquidity) at the ATH OR the top of the VWAP upperband.Due to past data, I figured that the ATH would fail yet again at the first and second break ( as shown in prior data ), so my plan was to take 100% profit off of my trade as soon as the break occured.

I decided to trail my stoploss at each prior green bar, so I would stopout of the trade if any reversal variation took place.That happened right before the final squeeze to my exact target, and I did miss out on a good deal of remaining profit.

Overall it was a great trade, and I did everything correct according to the setup, but maybe I will start tracking more data on the best timeframes to trailstop once involved in a trade.What I can do, is go back to all of my prior M1 entries up until this point, and take the data from each dominant trend from the point of entry, per timeframe.

Analyzing todays trading session with hundsight (2.42PM) the M15 chart provided the best trail stop timeframe to capture the entirety on a big big move of around 200 points. 

 

(What I Did Right)

- Waking up early, and being on the charts 2 hours before market open

- Analyzing the area of 'mean reversion' for the prevailing upward trend in the premarket

- Executing on the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation at the change in trend

 

(What I Did Wrong)

- I trailstopped the trade slightly tight (Im going to be tracking data to try to find the best way to mitigate being taken out of a winner too early) 

Another thing I could have done was only trail half the position, to let the other half either hit the target or stop me out at breakeven

vwap bounce,

MKT: bullish

Target: 1.50

STP: 1.20

setup: pmkt move, above vwap, extended

feeling ok

Notes: clear resistance at 1.40, but i played it well

vwap bounce, VWAP Breakout,

MKT: very slow

Target: 4.30

Setup: good catalyst FDA approval, arround vwap

feeling ok

Notes: it's not a trading day, like Levermore once said: there are times whn you want to go long, there rae days whn you want go short, and there are days when you better go fishing, today is a fishing day

vwap bounce, VWAP Breakout,

MKT: very slow

Target: 4.30

Setup: good catalyst FDA approval, arround vwap

feeling ok

Notes: it's not a trading day, like Levermore once said: there are times whn you want to go long, there rae days whn you want go short, and there are days when you better go fishing, today is a fishing day

vwap bounce, whole dollar support,

MKT: bearish

Target: 7.25

STP: 6.25

Setup: Reverse split, microfloat, holding vwap

feeling ok

Notes: maybe a little late entry but the tape was showing strengh at 6 and 6.50

vwap bounce,

MKT: bearish

Target: 7

STP: 5.91

R= -1

Setup: Reverse split, microfloat, above vwap

feeling ok

Notes: very agressive price action, i think my size here was bad, i took too much risk

vwap bounce,

MKT: bullish\

Target: 2.30

STP: 1.85

R= 1R

Setup: prmarket move, broke vwap and held vwap after open

feeling: really tired

 Notes|: nice entry, fast exits, you can play it better it's A+

vwap bounce,

mkt: bullish

Target: 2.30

STP: 1.80

R= BE

setup: same as previous one

feeling: tired

 Notes: the pattern wasn't ready yet, 1.80 should be the level here to enter above