Premarket: This morning around 3:00 a.m. we took a big plunge from 4395 and bottomed out at 4375, with the bounce consolidating around the 4385 level which is around the bottom of FOMC day which was a key level before. These may be levels of interest to keep in mind. In regards to the pivots we are starting below 0pivot, 0pivot 4398.75, +1pivot 4415.75, +2pivot 4443.25, -1pivot 4371.25, -2pivot 4354.25. On the weekly charts we rejected at the top of the ascending channel and finally had a fairly large red candle, breaking below the uptrend line we had been. The daily chart shows a similar situation. Interestingly on the daily chart we are entering a levle from 6/12 where we had a big full body green candle from around 4392 to 4347. If we continue to the downside we could see a big move. After that candle there was a gap to 4326. Technically on the 4 and 1H charts we are in a downtrend since last friday, with the trendline around 4400. If we open below VWAP and stay below I will look for a a short move through 4384 the FOMC level and then down past 4375.5 with strength. We may get a bounce at that level so I may have to cover. For any potential long we need a move above VWAP and hold, looking for the 0pivot at 4398.75.
Trade 1: We had a strong 17 move up at open with the TICK/ADD/VOLD all strongly trending up. Against better judgment I took a reversal trade as there were too many resistance levels lining up to ignore, but I kept my stop tight and with a stop limit order. There were a lot of key levels that were working as resistance at this level which included the 0pivot, the 15m 200SMA, the premarket high, and the downtrend on the hourly chart. The buyers seemed to lose steam at this level as well. The TICK/ADD/VOLD started to roll over at some point as well but unfortunately it hit my stop loss, it top ticked me and hit my stop to get me out. This was the right idea - just timed poorly I think as this eventually went down and hit my target right above VWAP
Trade 2: We had found a top around 4402.5 and then a bottom around 4395. I was looking for the strong move back down below the bottom level as this was going to be the 3rd test of the level and we had weaker and weaker bounces everytime. The TICK/ADD/VOLD had been turning over and trending down as well. I had originally entered with full size but since this could easily bounce and go back towards the top of this "range" to 4402.5 I reduced size to half size. I took 1 of the contracts when we reached VWAP on the MNQ and the 0pivot on the SPY and let the other contract ride to either opening price or a stop slightly above VWAP, eventually hitting my goal and somewhat bouncing. There are two issues that I take witht his trade. 1) If I'm going to be taking reversal trades I need to set clear parameters for it. While I had solid reasons for it here and kept my stops tight, I really don't want to be taking reversal trades. 2) I need to be confortable using full size, and if I'm not using full size, then holding the entirety of the position to goal. With smaller size I give myself more room to work with but then profits are smaller if I peel 1 contract off. This would have been a big trade if I had left my full size on.
Trade 3 (NOT SHOWN ABOVE): This was a little bit of a rushed trade after I got off a Cour conference. I saw that we had a strong bounce at 4380 and that we found resistance at VWAP. I got in once I saw the rejection of VWAP for a move back down to where we bottomed out. This was a very quick/instinctual trade which I probably should not have taken. I set me OCO to stop at VWAP with a target just above the prior low. I again reduced size here to half size since I realized after I got in that this was not a thought out trade and more instincts based.