April 19, 2023 (5 trades) ($11.25)
Overall Grade: C+
Day Summary: Today was basically a grinding green move all day except for the last 30mins. A bit strange after gapping down overnight and breaking the current micro uptrend on the hourly, but I guess gaps get filled. Once we didn't continue downward after the open and started grinding early in the session I should have assumed we would fill the gap, but assuming in trading is generally a recipe for disaster. Overall, I managed risk well today but continue to try to short grinding green moves when I should just follow the trend, even if the R is not ideal, because my chance of winning is much higher. The 2 long trades I had today were significantly easier to take and hold compared to the shorts.
DAILY - ES Futures (4pm screenshot)
5 Min - ES Futures
Trades
Trade 1: Short 2 Contracts @ Top of PM Consolidation (bottom photo)
Grade: C-
- This trade was still shorting grinding green, but I am not as unhappy as I could be because I at least waited for this entry and traded a plan
- I thought that the consolidation range from the PM would hold stronger, as i was still in denial that we would grind green all day because we had broken the micro uptrend on the hourly (no photo)
- Still shouldn't be shorting a strong uptrending move off the open like that though
- Glad i stopped when I did because this moved much higher
FIX: Don't short strong uptrends
Trade 2: Long 1 Contract @ 50 Ema Pullback during Grinding Green move
Grade: B
- This was good that I switched to going long - following the trend
- 50 EMA is generally a good spot to buy the dip on grinding green days because it fakes out all the people still shorting
- I considered adding another contract on the 50 EMA recovery after the 2nd fake low, but we hadn't broken the trend (2min) so I wanted to be conservative - wish I had bought it lol
- Good sell at the attempted break of the high
- Also good hold on this trade even through small drawdown - was planning to risk VWAP
FIX: Add another contract on the 2min trend break
Trade 3: Short 2 Contracts (no real set up) (red trade on the left in the photo)
Grade: D-
- Don't take this trade - this was a guess
- Fighting the trend again
- I was targeting another test of the 50 EMA here but the R doesn't make sense at all to do this
FIX: AVOID
Trade 4: Long 2 Contracts @ 50 EMA Support and Low of Consoidation Range (before last push 5 min)
Grade: B+
- Following the Trend = Beautiful
- This trade felt easy
- Clear risk below the first dip below the 50 EMA
- Only problem with this is I didn't let it run as it moved up another 7 points from my exit in the following 5mins - that is what happens when you take bad trades and are trading from the red
- That turned this into a 35$ tarde when it could have been a $100 trade that would have easily ate up my small losses on the day
FIX: Let winners run. How many times and I going to have to tell myself this. They will make up for all your losers and help you be a profitable trader
Trade 5: Short 1 Contract (intuition trade - no set up)
Grade: C-
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- Avoid this tarde
- Intuition trade "guess"
- I was actually pretty confident it would move to the range low here but there is no point exposing myself to market risk for a trade like this
- One good takeaway is I took this with 1 contract as I ovbiously wasn't considering this a good set up
FIX: AVOID GUESS TRADING! Don't expose yourself to market risk when you don't have to
Takeaways: Always follow the tend. Both my long trades today felt easy. You're R may not be good, but your chance of winning is high. Why fight billions of dollars? Also don't have a bias. Follow what the price action is telling you (15min charts had nothing but green candles and higher lows all day - I should have snapped a photo - but there wasn't really any reason to go short)