I am attempting to find a way to categorize every mistake I make into a solid rule so that I dont have all of these different mistakes everyday even tho they are mostly related to one topic
Possible mistakes include:
1. Fighting the Micro Trend
2. Fighting the Daily Trend
3. Emotional Instability
4. Not Holding for Target Price
5. Greed
-August 16th
-Macro: downtrend, Micro: uptrend, Daily: consolidation
RULES BROKEN: Rules 1, 2, 3.
-August 17th
-Borderline perfect (to the penny) entries
-Failed to take profit quickly enough and stopped out on multiple trades that I was green on initially
-FOMC day and sold right before meeting to mitigate risk
-Macro: downtrend, Micro: consolidation, Daily: downtrend/consolidation
RULES BROKEN: Rules 5
-August 18th
-Another day where I was unable to take profits quickly enough even though I was up on many of the trades that I took.
-If you zoom in and look at these entries versus exits it is WILD. I was up over a dollar on each of these entries and sold them for a LOSS. Absolutely wild I made no money on this day
-Macro: downtrend, Micro: downtrend, Daily: uptrend
RULES BROKEN: Rules, 1, 5
-August 19th
-Yikes, did not follow the trend on this day even when the micro uptrend is confirmed to be broken. I couldve shorted on any of these pops and crushed this day
-Highest probability setups are when trends align with eachother
-Any short on a day like this has a 75% chance of winning regardless of entry point. Couldve cleaned up but instead I went long.
-Macro: downtrend, Micro: downtrend, Daily: downtrend
RULES BROKEN: Rules 1, 2, 3, 5
-August 22nd
-Did not follow the trend again even though this day was another 75% probabiltiy of shorting anywhere and making money day
-Macro: downtrend, Micro: downtrend, Daily: downtrend
RULES BROKEN: Rules 1, 2, 3
-August 23rd
-Fought the trend 1 single time and it ruined the next 2 trades, put me on tilt, then I made no money after crushing 2 really awesome high probability setups
-Macro: downtrend, Micro: downtrend, Daily: consolidation
RULES BROKEN: Rules 1, 2, 3, 4
TALLY OF RULES BROKEN:
1: 5/6 Fighting the Micro Trend
2: 4/6 Fighting the Daily Trend
3. 4/6 Emotional Instability
4: 1/6 Not Holding for Target Price
5. 3/6 Greed
RULES NUMBER 1 AND 2
-So this is actually super interesting and a cool way for me to see how destructive my trading has been. I have broken my first rule of Fighting the Micro Trend on almost EVERY SINGLE DAY in the past week. To review, the Micro Trend is the current 1Y:1D chart and whichever trend has been happening in the current cycle over the past week or so. The Macro Trend is basically the 3Yr:1Week trend so obviously we are in a bear market so that trend is down. The Micro trend was up for the first day out of these 6 examples then after that the trend had 1 day of consolidation then it confirmed the downtrend on the micro timeframe. When the micro timeframe has a certain trend it is extremely important to follow that trend because this is a game of probabilities and I keep talking recently about how I really should stop looking at trades with huge R because they have an extremely low win rate and if I am guessing tops and bottoms I will never make money. I need to wait for trend break confirmation then only follow the trend. For the next week I am giving myself 1 goal and 1 goal alone. DO NOT FIGHT THE MICRO TREND OR THE DAILY TREND. If I just follow this one rule everyday for the forseeable future I should slowly bring my win rate up which will allow me to size into trades more often. Again bet sizing is extremely important and if I have no strategy that I can size into then I will never make money.
RULE NUMBER 3
- I clearly have not been able to control myself emotionally in the last week. I know that these red days weigh on me heavily and I never can truly be unaffected by them. It feels like I have a market maker on my shoulder recently who is moving the market at whim to any decision I try to make. I wouldnt feel like that though if I was able to just follow the money and go with every trend rather than fighting all of them. I think that some of my problems are self fabricated though because as many of us know, good and bad truly do not exist when it comes to dog, or a rock, or a plant. There is simply whatever is existing infront of them and that is it. Humans (being so fucking smart like we are) found a way to basically destroy every moment that ever existed by attempting to give value to everything. Some thing are not meant to have value put onto them and I'd argue that everything is destined to never be seen as good or bad. Why do I have this problem with being angry every single time that I lose in a game of probabilities? Trading is gambling in the purest sense of the word. We are playing a game of probabilty and for me to get personally angry when I am wrong is just silly and makes no sense. Nothing I ever do in trading will be anything more than me attempting to understand a game of probabilities.. I dont need to sit here and judge every singel decision I make or every trade I look to grab. The entire point of trading is to fuck up so many times and delete the things where you know you have a small change of winning. If I am able to do that over time I will make money.
RULE NUMBER 4
-I only did this 1 time in the past 6 days which shows me that I am very confident in my ability to just hold something to my allotted risk level. The only time I broke this rule was today on the 23rd where I stopped myself out for a tiny loss and then watched the SPY pummel down to new lows right after. This is a simple fix so long as I am able to identify when I am emotionally compromised.
RULE NUMBER 5
-This is also another easy fix that I could change just by simply changing my price target from 1 point to only a half of a point. I started doing this on the 22nd and laughably enough the order spiked through my limit sell and didnt fill me, so my 45$ easy money turned into a 35$ loss hahaha. I think moving forward since I am just learning the SPY I should definitely keep this half point reward with a quarter point risk. I could do that trade quite often I believe. So long as I follow the trend I should easily be able to do this and make good money. When we have the confluence of Macro down Micro down and Daily down, I should be using 8 contracts looking for 50 cents or a half point and I could make $180 just for one decent trade. I think that soon I will be able to really size up to something like that and just look for 2 trend following trades per day.
