1&2: Frontside Shorts
1. TA
- Market has been on a tear recently. Moving up so strongly and all pullbacks are only met with buy demand.
- There have been tons of breakouts to HOD that get gaded into huge and I was ready to short into those moves looking just for scalps
- Although ADD and VOLD opened strong, they were decreasing throughout the entire day and ADD itself broke the LOD pretty quickly into the open.
2. Review
Idea: B
- Both of these little scalps were pretty much me playing off the fact that FOMC day is rangey and HOD breakouts are commonly fakeouts. I missed the first one then made 3x that on the second one so thats fine. I think in general these are still D trades so maybe best to avoid but I have to take probably a few thousand of these over the course of years and also be sizing up huge into my A++ setups for me to get to the point of fully avoiding Ds. Both of these trades were really just boredom trades for me to get somewhat into the game early before FOMC. I just didnt want my first entry to be at or near the FOMC shit. Sometimes if I do that then I hold for big loser then its hard to get back.
Execution: A
- Cut the loser fast, held the winner for target. As good as it can get when shorting a frontside LOL.
3&4: FOMC trades, Intraday Continuation
1. TA
- Clear as day we have a HOD then a huge drop and a few lower highs to short into.
- Fail at HOD then we break down. FOMC was insanity per usual but I was calm and ready to get a clean 20 pointer.
- ADD VOLD both went strong red at the announcement of a pause but then rallied huge after JP started talking. This is funny because it is the opposite of what normally has been happening on FOMC day. Usually we get a HOD break then massive fail, this time we got a LOD break then a massive false breakdown. By EOD we pretty much were flat and ended right at PDC. I was looking for more shorts than longs because I know the short moves are going to be somewhat strong given how extended we are, I just need to not get too greedy and make sure I am not holding for insane 30 point moves because the market is still in a huge uptrend and that wont end until we get back below the 50EMA on the daily and even then we have a lot of selling until we can even think about a backside on overall market.
2. Review
Idea: A
- I had the right idea that the stops for people who were shorting before FOMC would provide liquidty for a larger move down. I also was trusting of the trend of the ADD VOLD TICK sectors, and ES. We had a HOD and we sold off at the lower high. This was a clear backside in my book simply because we never broke HOD on the spike back up. Its more of a consolidation but in terms of FOMC trades that were actually viable that is definitely a backside style. I stopped out of the first trade fast because I was not going to hold for a 10 point drawdown, that was great because it allowed me to stay level in the next trade. I got back in the second that JP said "its ridiculous to cut this year and inflation is not coming down that much." I was ready for him to slip up and say something stupid and that is exactly what happened. I got in short with risk at prior bar high and then I was up nearly 18 points within 4 minutes. I had the right idea here for sure so A on Idea.
Execution:
- First trade was small loser cuz I cut it very fast then second trade was a big winner cuz I held. I shouldve added into the second trade when it retested my entry at breakeven but bulls have been so strong that it just seemed like it was going to breakout and I didnt want to have a bigger red day from being an idiot and adding on a fed day. Adding on days like this is terrifying from high likelihood of chop. I think it wouldve been a lot smarter to just take the win at 15 points then re-enter at some point. The only flaw with that is that if you always do that then you are bound to give some up on the re-entry because itll be hard to time taht pullup again. I think its almost always easier to only ADD into the winner and not sell it looking for the same trade. Yes in theory they yield the same profits but in practice its a lot harder to get in and get out that much.
