1yr:1d
30d:30m
1d:2m
- Today was not the best. I took a long early on in the session basically with the idea that since we broke out of the range on the daily chart we should continue further. I expected a strong pullback once the range was broken and that is exactly what happened yesterday in the price action. We had a nice spike on JP talk this morning and that aided in the thesis that we will probably grind higher today. The only problem with this strategy is the fact that we have CPI on thursday which gives the MMs a huge incentive to chop up the price aciton and not let people make money before the big more comes on thursday. For that reason I shouldve just taken my small long biased win early on in the day and not try to trade the choppy ass price action. The trade I took looked incredible on paper but in theory it was very opposite to my original thesis on the day which was BULLISH.
-This oval area is where i took my short and you can see we were (at the time) below the 25, 50, vwap, and previous day close. Those 4 confluencing factors made me skew my original bullish bias and i went short. I gave back all my profits on that trade and then decided to call it a day before I tried to trade more of this choppy ugly price action.
Overnight Swing Option Trade:
- Here is a trade I took overnight where I bought on the left (green arrow) and sold at the right (red arrow). This was a trade based off of the 30m chart (check above). The range was broken and we pulled back to the high of the range on the intraday and I thought that this would bounce off of top range and move higher. The only thing I dont like about this trade is the fact that I am entering options trades during a very uncertain period. These "overnight swings" really should never be taken without extreme conviction and I have been taking them way too often and its really putting a dent into my potential profits. These trades work way better when traded intraday instead of overnight. If we are in a massive range and weakness is shown near close then I can definitely justify the every once in a while trade but not with this price action. Options also just suck to hold for long periods of time. I only technically lost about 0.90 cents on this trade but somehow ended up losing 1.5x the delta of the option. This doesnt even make any sense because the theta was 80% of the value of the delta so I shouldnt have lost an extra 50% of the delta before even 3 hours passed of me holding the position.
