January 19, 2023 (2 Trades) ($95.00)

Overall Grade: B+

Day Summary: After a crazy trending day yesterday, we went right back to ranging today. I feel like this might be the story of 2023, with lots of ranging days due to uncertainty with the economy, the Fed, rates, war etc. If this holds true, it will just be something we have to get used to and trade accordingly. That means we need to know where we are and take advantage of the money that can be made on the trending days. Using higher time frames will help significantly in determining this.

DAILY - ES Futures (Screenshot taken at 6:05pm)

5 Min - ES Futures

                                            Trades

Trade 1 - Long 2 Contracts @ Demand on 15min

Grade: B

15 Min

  • Overall, I am pretty happy with this scalp trade
  • After such a vicious sell off yesterday and overnight, I think it was reasonable to expect some bounces today, and when I saw us retest demand on the 15min chart, I was quite sure we would get a pop here
  • After looking back though, the 5min & 2min were a choppy af when i took this trade, but they are less important when taking a trade based on the higher time frames
  • The chop should have been a sign to at least take profits on the pop, which I did at VWAP
  • This trade felt easy and I was confident in taking this. That is what all my trades should feel like
  • This ended up being a 4pt risk for a 7pt reward

FIX: Try to avoid trading in chop, even when the higher time frames look good. There are better times to trade when all charts align

 

Trade 2 - Long 1 Contract @ Intraday Demand & 2min Trendbreak

Grade: A-

  • I gave myself an A- on this trade and I want to talk about why, even though I did not maximize the potential on this trade
  • First off, after yesterday's massive sell off, the overnight session and today's morning chop, we had yet to see a bounce with any strength, so it was definitely due to happen
  • We were finally holding a decent intraday uptrend and when I looked at the higher time frames (below) I realized we had broken the downtrend (after the steep sell off) and were retesting it (30 & 60 min)
  • The 4H chart had also bounced off of the pullback zone from when we broke the Dec - Jan range
  • We were also above VWAP on the higher time frames for the first time since yesterday's sell off

  • All the time frames were showing strength and correlating to show that we would most likely have a continued move higher
  • It was at this point, I glanced to my Trading View screen where I have the SPY 3min chart and noticed something particular (Below)

  • We were pulling back to PM HIgh (blue dotted line)
  • I said to myself, "before I enter this trade, I want to see us hold PM High and start a move back up
  • Almost immediately we wicked below PM High and reclaimed it (current candle)
  • I then said to myself, "If this candle closes as is, and we start moving back up I will look for a pullback to enter long"
  • We did just that, although I didn't wait for a pullback and entered 1 contract on the ask
  • I wanted to get a 2nd contract but bitched out because I wanted to keep my daily profits secured (working on pushing the gas on green days and being more conservative on red days instead of vice versa now so i should have went for this)
  • With all these confirmations, I was extremely confident that this would move long, even though I'm sure a lot of traders thought it was fail (having just rejected off intraday supply)
  • The only thing I did wrong after this was cut it too early (not sure why because I told myself to place a stop at breakeven) and let this ride to a new HOD ... well now I really wish i did that because what followed was this:

  • This right here, is how every trade I take should feel
  • I need to start paying attention to exactly where we are on the higher time frames, and then base my trades off smaller time frames
  • If that means waiting all day for 1 trade ... well so mothafuckin be it !!
  • It also highlights the importance of having multiple confirmations before entering any trade
  • I'm almost certain a lot of traders were thinking short here, and even though on the smaller time frames it looked like a tough spot to go long, the higher time frames told the real story

FIX: HOLD WINNERS! Especially on high time frame trades