Wow I know I shouldnt be too mad about a loss of $41 but I am very very very disappointed in myself. I think that since my analysis has been spot on recently I have given into the old habit of "take a trade on a hunch." I took 2 trades today and both were losers with ZERO setup. I basically went long on a backside short which is essentially the same thing as going short on a grinding green day. I totally get it IF there is AT LEAST a trend reversal setup occurring but nope there was no setup and no trade whatsoever. I saw AAPL spike above HOD while the SPY had very strong green volume at the open. I had a hunch that the SPY would spike up through highs and I could take my profits and run. Sadly this didnt happen and instead of breaking the highs, it broke the lows EXACTLY like a backside move always always always does. I understand that sometimes you can get nice pops of green on backside moves but wow taking it after a 2% down day is just laughably fucking stupid. I am kinda happy that I lost on these trades though so I can vividly remember how fucking dumb it is to go long in a backside move. This trade never ever ever works and if it did then u better kiss fuckin santa clause for the present cuz that shit will not happened in a constistent manner EVER.
1d:2m (Webull Trades) Trend Reversal, No Setup, Backside Long
-Went long when I saw AAPL break HOD and nothing else except GOOG was moving higher. Again NEVER TAKE BACKSIDE LONGS BASED ON ANYTHING OTHER THAN AT LEAST A TREND REVERSAL. And those trend reversals better be in a fucking beautiful spot like new yearly lows or some kind of fundamental shift in economic consciousness. Neither of those things happened today and in fact we just broke down from a massive uptrend that we were in for about a week. Why the fuck would I think that its viable to go long into this shit price action? I told the discord very early on in the day that if we were going to get another trending day to the downside then it would have to fail at 390 and accelerate quickly to the downside through pm low. I also said that if we get strong green volume at open then the setup will be hard to trade. What happened? We had strong green volume very early on which shouldve immediately invalidated the thesis of the day but instead I ignored it and instead flipped the whole thesis on its head and took a long trade in the center of the breakdown. This is just so stupid in so many ways
1d:2m (Futures Trades) Trend Reversal, No Setup, Backside Long
- Another just shit trade with shit setup with shit execution. There was no reason to go long here. None. I understand maybe "big green spike and reversal at the break of low" is a very interesting thesis and idea but damnnnn there was no trend reversal pattern was there? NOPE. Not even close. The only pattern here is a backside move where we are making consistent lower highs and lower lows. It does not get any more complicated than that. When you fight the trend you end up paying for it and that is just how it goes. NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER GO LONG IN A BACKSIDE TREND.
Takeaways:
The normal me wouldve kept trading after taking these 2 losses. I wouldve kept going and said "ah just 1 more trade" "ah just 1 more trade" until I was down $100 or more. Sadly, I still did give up my full profits from yesterday and a little extra which is so unacceptable on so many levels simply from the fact that yesterday was a 10x opportunity day and today was a -10x opportunity day. Why the fuck am I risking more on a shitty opportunity day instead of risking a lot on an extremely high opportunity day? This make zero sense and if it continues there is really nothing else to expect but being a breakeven or red PNL trader. I need to know when I should put risk on and when I should take my small scalps. Scalping is fine and dandy so long as you do it in an intelligent manner. Today I shouldve scalped lower highs and not betting on big breakdowns since we had strong red yesterday. Instead I went long and gave myself -EV by fighting a huge trend. Yesterday I shouldve kept putting on risk over and over and over again but instead I took 1 small scalp and left it alone. This is so flawed. I shouldve been scalping every single lower high yesterday while holding a trade to hold in my TOS account for the EOD LOD. I couldve made thousands if I had simply done that and then today I couldve just taken off to solidify that nice big green day. Instead I took a tiny win yesterday and a bigger loss today. That is about as -EV as it can get. I do think I am improving at taking losses simply from the fact that I stopped at 2 back to back losses today but I said to my girlfriend yesterday "I think I really cracked some kind of code in my mind about trading" to which she promptly said "WOOOOAH WOOOAH WOOOAH HOLD UP A MINUTE, I have heard you say this many times before...... be very very careful" and holy shit she was dead on right. I immediately regretted telling her that I have figured something out because truly every single time I ever said that out loud to someone I am always on a red streak right after. I need to always remember to stay humble and TRUST THE TREND BLINDLY. If I can just trust the trend and forget everything else I should technically never be red again but sometimes those trend reversal demons inside my just need let out and today was that day. At least I stopped at my 2 trade rule. That is about the only positive thing I can pull away from today.
Easy Money:
1d:2m
- I was eyeing up this trade for a while and possibly my long call option swayed me away from taking it but damn this wouldve been the trade of the day so long as I took my profits. This was a clean 2R trend continuation trade. We have back to back to back to back lower highs forming here where I couldve takent he short with the risk above the HOD and the target at a new LOD. This wouldve yielded a full 14 points in the futures or 1.4 points on the SPY. That is actually a 3R trade not a 2R. This is TRUSTING THE TREND and taking a lower high looking for a new lower low. It is very simple and easy to understand and wouldve been the best trade of the day by far. Instead I broke my rules and fucked everything up
1d:2m
- This is the trade that I shouldve taken earlier this morning. This is an actual setup to go long with a clear Risk and clear Reward. If I was patient enough for this trade to show itself then I couldve taken it although it was still extremely hard. I think in Macro Bear Micro Bear and Intraday Consolidation then we have to be very patient for those trendbreaks because they tend to break below the trendbreak zone rather than bounce right on it like shorts usually do.
