January 23, 2023 (8 Trades) (+$63.75)
Overall Grade: B-
Day Summary: Overtraded. Undercapitalized. First off, 8 trades is too many, even though most of them were with just 1 contract so at least I'm not racking up crazy amounts of fees. Today was another huge bullish day, again unexpected by most of the market after last Wednesdays' sell off. I mean just look at that DAILY chart (below). These trend days are when we have the best opportunities to make money and I keep missing them. From now on, I need to niche down more and trade depending on how the day is developing. Are we trending? Yes? Play consolidation breakouts/breakdowns. Are we ranging? Yes? Play Intraday Supply & Demand. Today was a bit weird because we trended in the morning, and then ranged into EOD. This is a day where you could have made money all day if you identified that early enough.
DAILY - ES Futures (screen shot taken during session break)
5 Min - ES Futures
Trades
Trade 1 - Short 2 Contracts @ Anticipated Trendbreak Rollover (No Set Up)
Grade: C-
- Decent entry, but overall this is not a good trade
- We are uptrending. Why am I shorting ?
- Wait for consolidation and get the breakout for the next leg higher
- Taking profit quick on this trade was basically the only thing done right here
FIX: Don't Fight The Trend!!
Trade 2 - Short 2 Contracts (1 Starter, 1 Add) (No Set UP)
Grade: D-
- This is a garbage trade
- Shorting into 21 EMA
- Does this look like a good move to short on the 5 Min ?? Nooooooo
- If I had held this trade another 30 seconds I would have gotten a decent scalp but I was ready to be out of this shit
FIX: Avoid This Trade
Trade 3 - Long 2 Contracts @ TrendBreak
Grade: C-
- This trade was pretty pathetic
- This was me attempting to trade a consolidation breakout
- This was way too late into the trend to be going for, with not enough volume for any meaningful break
- Right idea for what I should be doing in a trending market, but wrong time to be going for this (Hit this earlier in the move. Trust the Trend)
FIX: Need more volume to take a trade like this
Trade 4 - Long 1 Contract @ No Set UP
Grade: C-
- Not gonna lie, this was kinda just a random trade that following the trend made a winner lol
- Entered early for a consolidation break trade
- At least bought the EMAs pullback
FIX: Don't Fall To FOMO. Play this type of trade earlier in the trend
Trade 5 - Short 1 Contract @ EMA Break Retest (1st Trade in Picture Below)
Grade: B
- This was actually a good trade and the only thing I did wrong was not hold my position (1st Trade in Picture Above)
- That is what happens from missing opportunities all day and then trading with such small profit margin on the day
- For the first time on the day, momentum slowed to the point we started breaking the EMAs. This was my clue that I should be short & hold
FIX: HOLD!
Trade 6 - Short 1 Contract @ 5 Min Supply Zone, 50 EMA Retest
Grade: B
- 2nd good short in a row that i sold too early
- This trade fit perfect to my intraday supply & demand strategy, and I took the perfect entry for it, i just didn't hold. WTF!
- Notice how the trending day has turned to a range at this point in the day
- This ended up at the target which would have been the demand zone below. Def shoulda held this
FIX: Fucking Hold Mann!!
Trade 7 - Short 1 Contract 50 EMA Reject Looking for Relief Bounce Trendlineline Break
Grade: B+
- I don't mind me going for this here. I see what i was going for
- Target was VWAP but sold early and glad I did because it reversed back up here (market is ranging at this point in the day so no surprise it bounced at demand)
- Better entry was the green candle after the 2 wicks rejected at the 50 EMA
FIX: Get an entry closer to the 50 EMA, which would be the stop for this trade
Trade 8 - Short 1 Contract @ TrendBreak after 50 EMA Rejection (2nd Trade on Picture Below)
Grade: B-
- I should have realized that at this point the market was ranging and I should have expected a bounce at demand
- This trade probably would have been a winner in a downtrending market, but I need to recognize what the market is currently doing and trade accordingly
- Kept the loss small and essentially equal to the trade from 10ish mins prior so they basically cancel out
- There was actually a long set up (5 Min Demand) on the next candle after this screenshot was taken that i could have and probably would have took if I hadn't just lost on this trade, so be patient!
- This tarde was at 3:45ish - not an ideal time to be trading
FIX: Play Intraday Supply and Demand when the arket is ranging
Takeaways: Ranging or Trending ?? Play Accordingly