January 23, 2023 (8 Trades) (+$63.75)

Overall Grade: B-

Day Summary: Overtraded. Undercapitalized. First off, 8 trades is too many, even though most of them were with just 1 contract so at least I'm not racking up crazy amounts of fees. Today was another huge bullish day, again unexpected by most of the market after last Wednesdays' sell off. I mean just look at that DAILY chart (below).  These trend days are when we have the best opportunities to make money and I keep missing them. From now on, I need to niche down more and trade depending on how the day is developing. Are we trending? Yes? Play consolidation breakouts/breakdowns. Are we ranging? Yes? Play Intraday Supply & Demand. Today was a bit weird because we trended in the morning, and then ranged into EOD. This is a day where you could have made money all day if you identified that early enough.

DAILY - ES Futures (screen shot taken during session break)

5 Min - ES Futures

                                                Trades

Trade 1 - Short 2 Contracts @ Anticipated Trendbreak Rollover (No Set Up)

Grade: C-

  • Decent entry, but overall this is not a good trade
  • We are uptrending. Why am I shorting ?
  • Wait for consolidation and get the breakout for the next leg higher
  • Taking profit quick on this trade was basically the only thing done right here

FIX: Don't Fight The Trend!!

 

Trade 2 - Short 2 Contracts (1 Starter, 1 Add) (No Set UP)

Grade: D-

  • This is a garbage trade
  • Shorting into 21 EMA
  • Does this look like a good move to short on the 5 Min ?? Nooooooo
  • If I had held this trade another 30 seconds I would have gotten a decent scalp but I was ready to be out of this shit

FIX: Avoid This Trade

 

Trade 3 - Long 2 Contracts @ TrendBreak

Grade: C-

  • This trade was pretty pathetic
  • This was me attempting to trade a consolidation breakout
  • This was way too late into the trend to be going for, with not enough volume for any meaningful break
  • Right idea for what I should be doing in a trending market, but wrong time to be going for this (Hit this earlier in the move. Trust the Trend)

FIX: Need more volume to take a trade like this

 

Trade 4 - Long 1 Contract @ No Set UP

Grade: C-

  • Not gonna lie, this was kinda just a random trade that following the trend made a winner lol
  • Entered early for a consolidation break trade
  • At least bought the EMAs pullback

FIX: Don't Fall To FOMO. Play this type of trade earlier in the trend

 

Trade 5 - Short 1 Contract @ EMA Break Retest (1st Trade in Picture Below)

Grade: B

  • This was actually a good trade and the only thing I did wrong was not hold my position (1st Trade in Picture Above)
  • That is what happens from missing opportunities all day and then trading with such small profit margin on the day
  • For the first time on the day, momentum slowed to the point we started breaking the EMAs. This was my clue that I should be short & hold

FIX: HOLD!

 

Trade 6 - Short 1 Contract @ 5 Min Supply Zone, 50 EMA Retest

Grade: B

  • 2nd good short in a row that i sold too early
  • This trade fit perfect to my intraday supply & demand strategy, and I took the perfect entry for it, i just didn't hold. WTF!
  • Notice how the trending day has turned to a range at this point in the day
  • This ended up at the target which would have been the demand zone below. Def shoulda held this

FIX: Fucking Hold Mann!!

 

Trade 7 - Short 1 Contract 50 EMA Reject Looking for Relief Bounce Trendlineline Break

Grade: B+

  • I don't mind me going for this here. I see what i was going for
  • Target was VWAP but sold early and glad I did because it reversed back up here (market is ranging at this point in the day so no surprise it bounced at demand)
  • Better entry was the green candle after the 2 wicks rejected at the 50 EMA

FIX: Get an entry closer to the 50 EMA, which would be the stop for this trade

 

Trade 8 -  Short 1 Contract @ TrendBreak after 50 EMA Rejection (2nd Trade on Picture Below)

Grade: B-

  • I should have realized that at this point the market was ranging and I should have expected a bounce at demand
  • This trade probably would have been a winner in a downtrending market, but I need to recognize what the market is currently doing and trade accordingly
  • Kept the loss small and essentially equal to the trade from 10ish mins prior so they basically cancel out
  • There was actually a long set up (5 Min Demand) on the next candle after this screenshot was taken that i could have and probably would have took if I hadn't just lost on this trade, so be patient!
  • This tarde was at 3:45ish - not an ideal time to be trading

FIX: Play Intraday Supply and Demand when the arket is ranging

 

Takeaways: Ranging or Trending ?? Play Accordingly