January 30, 2023 (7 Tardes) (+$78.75)
Overall Grade: C+
Day Summary: Today had some weird price action. Although it felt like it was ranging at 11am, it started out trending from the open and into the 11am hour, both up and down. It then finished the day at LOD. So it technically did trend down all day. Lower highs, lower lows all day long, but just in very choppy fashion. It makes sense to see the market choppy like this right now as we have big earnings this week (Apple, Amazon, Meta, etc) but even mroe important, we have the Fed set to raise interest rates again on Wednesday. I would say overall, I am pretty lucky to be green today as it was a tough day in general. In my opinion, this was one of the harder trading days so far in 2023.
DAILY - ES Futures (screenshot taken during break)
5 Min - ES Futures
Trades
Trade 1- Long 2 Contracts @ Pullback to 9 EMA (Trend Continuation)
Grade: B
- This was actually probably my best trade of the day and I, unfortunately but not surprisingly, cut it early
- I waited for a great entry on this trade and was risking the low of the open candle so this turned out to basically be a 1:1 trade
- I did tell myself I should hold this trade, but being as I entered at 9:34am, I was a bit uncomfortable because I don't usually trade that early in the day due to open volatility, so that probably led me to sell it early
- I need to give trades like this a chance to work. Put a stop at breakeven if I am uncomfortable
FIX: Hold for the breakout, especially at the open when there is typically more volume
Trade 2 - Long 2 Contracts @ VWAP "Trend Break Retest"
Grade: C-
- In a way, I see what i was going for on this trade, but overall this wasn't a good trade to take in such a strong down move
- I messed up by not adjusting the trendline after the first few candles of the steeper part of the move, which made me think I was buying a trendbreak retest when really I was catching a falling knife
- VWAP and open demand were a decent factor I considered when going long here, but it would be better to see a reversal first vs trying to anticipate it
- Also going long just under the first 9 EMA 21 EMA cross was not a good idea lol. Momentum was ovbiously shifting at this point
FIX: Avoid this trade or wait for a confirmed bottom
Trade 3 - Short 1 Contract (No Describable Set Up)
Grade: C+
- I don't know how to describe this trade exactly other than I've seen price action grind down along a trendline after failing a break retest
- I should have entered prior to this, as I entered into the open demand zone, but these moves usually continue
- I took this with just 1 contract because I wanted to be careful, but this was probably one of my higher % trades of the day (% of working)
- I should have targeted SPY PM Low (no photo) with this entry, because as you'll see with Trade 4, I entered almost the same trade with that target
- Better to simple hold this first trade vs re-entering
FIX: Hold to clear target
Trade 4 - Short 1 Contract (No Describable Set Up)
Grade: C+
- Basically exact same trade as Trade 3
- This time I did hold to target of SPY PM Low (no photo) but because I took profit on Trade 3 with no target, I missed out on a few extra points
- Grinding moves down lihe this tend to continue. Note this for next time and get in earlier during the grind
FIX: Don't be late to the party
Trade 5 - Long 2 Contracts (No Set Up)
Grade: D
- Avoid this trade. No point.
- I bascially took this trade because I thought the choppy market would try to fake out shorts here, and it did, but not until just after I stopped out lol
- Overall, ^^ is not a good thesis to trade and i lost $20 unnecesarily. Those small losers add up at the end of the month so just avoid these trades all together
- Also went long below all moving averages & VWAP
FIX: Don't trade a hunch
Trade 6 - Short 2 Contracts (1 initial, 1 add) under EMAs looking for Rollover to Demand Zone below
Grade: B
- This was the trade I made the most money on today but I Fomo'd into my first entry
- I was thinking we would start grinding down the same trendline from before so i got in 1 contract on the first push up
- We pushed up quite a bit higher, which allowed me to add 1 more contract short at the EMAs
- I had my stop set 2 ticks above the highest candle in the range after the big red candle (5min) and it did test my stop, but having it 2 ticks above saved me as it missed by one tick and I stayed in the trade (lucky for once lol)
- I did a good job holding this trade, but eventually took off the 1st contract at the new low because I wanted to be in a more cofortable position and thankfully covered the rest a few minutes later because this reversed and would have stopped me
FIX: Be more patient for entries
Trade 7 - Short 1 Contract @ Weiland Set Up
Grade: B
- I would say this is actually a high % trade here, especially after bouncing and failing to hold the 50 EMA (5min) or any EMAs (2min)
- Entered at the break, original stop above prior red candle, stop above entry candle after it moved in my direction - I wasn't going to give a breakdown trade any room to go against me
- I think on a day that wasn't as choppy as today, you could have seen this trade move downa lot more from here, but today was just a mess
- I was also looking at the demand zone on the 5min and skeptical if it could hold again for the 4th time of the day, so I wanted to hold this trade but just decided to cover and it really didn't go much lower before popping again
FIX: Breakeven stop and hold ?
Takeaways: Today was tough, but i did a good job of at least recognizing the overall trend was down. Even though we were holding the same demand zone, we kept making higher lows which added to my short thesis. That is what I need to look for everday. Continue to find out if we are ranging or trending, and look for highs & lows. Today was a green day, but as choppy as it was, I could have took these same trades and ended up red. Recognize that and be ready for that all week until we have mroe certainty in the market, if certainty ever exists again lol
