Frustration is at all time high levels. We have a clear chance of a big downtrending day today and I was ready to bet the farm on it. Of course since it was so obvious it ended up not happening and I took 8 trade and ended up losing on 7 of them. Idk how its possible to be so wrong but hey I am a pro at this lol.
Weekly Stats
Futures
Trades 1-5: Micro Continuation Intraday Continuation
Trades 6-7: Micro Reversal Intraday Continuation
Weaknesses:
1. Overbiased
-Watching any stream at open is not a good thing to do. I need to trust myself and nobody else.
2. Overtraded
- Once I lost on the first short I shouldve already known that shorting was not going to work today and if it was I needed a very good place to do it.
3. Using my indicators as an end all be all when they are nothing even close to that
4. Went against TICK when that is an extremely important thing to make sure I am using correctly
Strengths:
1. Flipped my bias once I lost enough times and ended up finally trying to go long
2. Once I got close to breakeven I was done for the day.
Why did I think that we would continue lower?
1. Big bearish sentiment with financials
2. 2 large down days prior that were quite ridiculous in terms of strength
3. We opened below the previous days low which gave me even more of a reason to go for a short below that level. ALL trend days that are very clean happen above or below the previous days range
Why should I have thought that we SHOULDNT continue lower?
1. We are sitting at the top of the micro downtrend and are possibly trying to break to the upside creating a micro uptrend. This alone should be very concerning. We had 1.5 weeks of range right below this zone that we opened at and there is so much volume there we wouldve flown through it quickly if it was truly that bearish.
2. VOLD was never below 3 and started to decline from the open. I need to make sure that when VOLD is below 2 on either side and its not perfectly flat or increasing then this is an INVALID indicator. Once I saw that we only opened hardly below -1 and yes we were increasing for the first 10 minutes but once we peaked we never set a value lower than the -2.5 LOD level on VOLD. I need to start treating this specific indicator as more of a legitimate stock chart rather than just saying "oh whats the value" and making a trade based on that. The TREND of the VOLD is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. The HOD and LOD are VERY IMPORTANT. If I am shorting I do not want to see the VOLD decreasing and getting closer to buy volume imbalance.
3. TICK was holding below 0 at the open but at 9:51 we broke right back to the upside. Once we do this then TRENDING DAY THESIS IS DEAD. I know its hard to just change my entire idea of the day and flip my whole thesis but I need to be willing to do this at all times. When the thesis is broken DO NOT TAKE THE SAME TRADES OVER AND OVER AND OVER. It is not very complicated but its just as complicated as its simple.
4. ADD started the day negative but not negative enough. I need to see this not make a LOD then immediately break through and above the HOD. Then later at 1030ish we broke massively back to the upside basically using the opening price as support.
Wow this entire post is actually incredibly insightful. I took all of my big shorts right after all of these indicators broke my thesis. The VOLD was increasing but made a LOD then started to decrease heavily and I took trades short even after that happened. The ADD broke to HOD and wasnt even below -1500 way before 10:00 and I still took the shorts. The TICK broke above 0 and held above 0 or was at least ranging right at 9:51 which was way before I took any trades AND I still took the shorts.
I NEED ALL OF THESE INDICATORS TO BE ALIGNED AND EXTREME IF I TRULY BELIEVE WE WILL BREAK BELOW THE PREVIOUS DAYS RANGE AND HAVE A LARGE TRENDING DAY TO THE DOWNSIDE.
No other scenario except
VOLD at MINIMUM is +/- 3 MINIMUM.
ADD -/+ 1800 MINIMUM.
TICK +/- 0 AND HOLDING. MINIMUM
Lets go over what is required for a trending day and see how much they were telling me it WASNT a trending day.
X 1. VOLD open at -1.5 and peaked at -2.5
X 2. ADD -1400 and break its HOD before 10:00am
X 3. TICK broke above 0 and ranged at 9:51am
X 4. We open below the previous days range (close but nope)
- spiked right at open above the previous days low
X 5. Clear Micro Downtrend and preferrably at top of channel
X 6. 2 large down days prior to the trending day
- less likely to happen again
X 7. Break below PM low close to open
Lesson:
When every god damn indicator possible is telling you that your thesis is wrong......its fuckin wrong bro
