Micro Uptrend

30d:30m

Intraday Downtrend

Futures 

Micro is in an uptrend because we are making higher highs and higher lows on the 30m chart. Intraday was a downtrend because we broke to the downside around 10:30 and made consistent lower highs and lower lows throughout the session until about 12:30 (if you start it at 9:30 and dont count premarket)

1 and 2: Micro Continuation Intraday Reversal

3, 4, 5: Micro Reversal Intraday Continuation

6 and 7: Micro Continuation Intraday Reversal

1d:2m

    - This is just terrible terrible trading. 

1st: I took the long here on the very first trendbreak of the day. This is just beyond stupid. I am not sure why I took this other than the fact that I thought we would hold the previous 30m higher low at 3995. Yeah that was a good idea to hold the 30m previous higher low for a continuation of micro uptrend but damn this trade is soooo early for that thesis. I need to wait for a legit retest of that zone. Yeah we are in a ranging market so going for reversals is not a bad idea but its also just wildly insane to go for the first trendbreak of the day especially with the way that the breadth looked. ARKK was being sold off huge and so was volatility. GDX and SLV were up the most on the day combined with energy. The only thing that didnt make sense was TLT and HYG being down so much ontop of stocks and commodities. I wish they were rocketing higher or I probably wouldnt have trusted a long in the first place. The VOLD was green for a long portion of the morning (up until 10:30ish) but I need to realize that DOES NOT MATTER if the value is anywhere below 3 or above -3. I need to stop giving this indicator so much weight when its not at extreme levels. It is just not smart to think that anything less than at fucking least 2x buy vs sell volume would mean that it should effect the stock. 2.5-3 is all that matters and at the open it needs to be multiplied by 2 so anything below +5 or -5 needs to be not given a fuck about. Once we get between +2 and -2 its game on for pretty much anything to happen. The ADD was also very positive when the day started so this gave me more conviction of a long even tho the TREND of the ADD is more important than the value. If it is trending down then guess what jackass........so are the stocks inside of it. 

2nd: again I had the same idea and this was really an awesome entry looking back at it but of couse I saw a weird red spike to the downside and panic exited (please never do this again) and instead of exiting I added. Ugh im such a dumbass hahhaha. So I added then just sold both immediately and this is what started the cascade of pain that is to come. I got angry probably more from panic exiting and not sticking to my plan but we also ripped back up right after this move and I was sad to not be in it.

3rd: Well this is the true pain. It was 1:00pm and I was looking at the chart realizing that its this late and we still havent even really gotten close to vwap. That usually means that a late day short opportunitiy is arising where the buyers just die out and we selloff through the LOD and sometimes breakdown huge. I got in and held basically to my stop. If this was any other day and I didnt go long 2 times already I really dont mind this trade at all. I think I had the right idea if we were in a micro downtrend and not making higher lows on the 30m chart. VOLD was getting more negative, ADD decreasing, TICK very rangey. I need to make sure that I use VOLD correctly and dont assume anything off of it yet without having a few weeks to watch its movement. Same thing with the watchlist. I still have some time before I fully understand why risk on means certain  ETFs and risk off means others. 

4th: Ahh here we go. I took the same exact short trade and entered basically at the same spot I covered and took a 3 point loss immediately and then...

5th: reentered yet AGAIN even lower this time and I stopped out basically at the highs. I was down about 71 at this point or something close to that

6th: Got back in long for the original thesis since I was so angry. stopped out again for tiny loss when I couldve just held the damn thing hhaha

7th: Finally I caught the trade and got a full 12 points on the winning trade. This long made sense to me in the moment for 1 reason alone. I basically said fuck this and entered again because I was so angry. This was not strategic or really anyhing other than some luck and some skill to hold the win. The only thing that took skill was holding the winner. If I had timed and planned this entry beforehand and actually took it from analysis then it wouldve been actually pretty nice but it pretty much was just my frustration of going long, being wrong, going short, being wrong again, then reverting back to my original thesis that we would hold 3995 and make a higher low on the 30m micro timeframe. 

1d:2m

$VOLD

    - New rule. If we are within +2 and -2...Watch for movement in the OTHER direction. All day today when those values were just slightly red or slightly green, we moved in the opposite direction. It makes sense because if things are not very strong and having big money backup the selloff or rip higher, then retail is all that is left and MMs LOVE chopping up some retail dipshits like me. When only slightly negative or positive then that may just mean there are people positioning in that direction and they are gonna be the next liquidity grab. When extreme that is most of the time very false.

$TICK

    - Pretty much perfectly even throughout the entire day but if you look closely you will see that the only ticks we had near 1000 were to the long side. There were 0 ticks where we hit -1000 until the close. That is somewhat astonishing and I need to make sure that is something I am paying attention to on a slow day like this. 

$ADD

Breadth Watchlist

    - UVXY, ARKK, SMH, XLK, QQQ, XLY were all very red today and yes their RVOL was weak so that meant that there really wasnt much volume in the market in the first place but if they are usually the leading red indicators I should probably follow that as a sign to go short right?? WRONG. If I had taken the opening trades then yet I couldve shorted the SPY but it wouldve been very hard to short until the spike at EOD and I do think that in general it was probably easier to go short than to go long today because the moves down were violent and moves up generally were not but we also had the nice HOD to risk off of and just short the lower highs but my thesis was hold 3995 and we did exactly that all day and consistently made higher lows. Albeit, they were not big green moves but higher lows nonetheless. If I had just stuck to my thesis and traded patiently, intelligently, thoughtfully, and gratuitously, then I wouldve noticed this. Instead I let my emotions take over and destroy my ability to make a rational decision. I need to remember that The world OWES ME NOTHING. I do not deserve to be correct any more than the last guy. It is not a personal thing that the world is doing to fuck me over, im just wrong dude. simple as that. It is okay to be wrong, it is not okay to make a decision based on your last wrong decision. You should make every decision a new one. One that has to be thoughtfully, and gratuitously examined. 

How I should have traded:

T

    -his is the 30m timeframe. We have a higher low here and this is the exact spot where I wanted to risk today for an attempted break to a new higher high. You can see how the low of today held that level perfectly.

    - Here is the 5 minute for another reference of where I couldve gotten in and risked the previous higher low for a micro continuation intraday reversal trade.

    - This is kind of stupid but I think all of these trades are possible entry ideas and exit ideas. You get in on higher lows and sell into attempted or breakouts of previous higher highs. When in such a deep downtrend to begin with though its smarter to just take multiple singles back to back than to go for something crazy but I will now give you an example of a true way that a season veteran wouldve done. 

2d:5m

    - So this is a very simple and easy strategy right here. We have a huge uptrending day on friday where we made higher highs and higher lows all day and ended the day at HOD which is massively bullish. In the morning we gapped up and were already up about 0.5% on the day. The previous day close was at pretty much the same zone as this risk level above. So we have PDC and a higher low on the 30m and all signs pointing to the upside for continuation. I can enter anywhere within 10 points of that risk level and then add up to 2 more contracts on the position. This allows me to average into it if I am off with my timing on the first entry. As long as I am okay with losing 10 points on 2 contracts then that is fine. I would then add another contract equalling 3 total but I think the 3rd one is a little ambitious to think anyone would add there. Maybe I would add once I am confirmed to be correct such as the next higher low before the sell point. That would equal 3 contracts with an average of about 4006. I would then sell those contracts where the most logical spot would be and this can get sketchy so you have to be tactical. The best exit is NOT selling at a higher high when the RVOL and total market is just weak as hell waiting for data to come out. The best sell in a ranging market is the sell at the ATTEMPT of a new higher high. Which basically is just a lower high. This trade wouldve rewarded me about 11 or 12 points but I also wouldve been risking about 10 points. with three contracts that is possible $150 risk for about $165 potential. That doesnt seem very good to me. In essence this is basically how a god would trade this thesis given the circumstances. Sadly nobody wouldve ever traded this shit like this and if you did you probably lose a lot hahahhaha. Today was a day to just avoid this shit altogether and really leave it alone but if it was traded something like this then that would be ideal LOL.

     I really need to spend some time alone and truly understand how lucky I am to be in the position that I am in. Firstly, I am sitting in an upper class home build by MY PARENTS who have given me everything in life. My dad gave me money to start trading in the first place and without that I would just be working a job somewhere that I fucking hate. I was lucky enough to see him be an entrepreneur his entire life and have him push me to be the same way. I am so lucky to have my mother who would support me in legitmately anything I ever wanted to do even if I was terrible at it. I have a girlfriend who adores me and wants nothing more than to just spend time with me. I have a beautiful dog who is happy to simply sit next to me for 8 hours everyday while I lose my fucking mind trading. I have an incredible brother and 2 sisters who would die for me in an instant if they had to. I have friends that care about my well being and check in on me to make sure I am on the right path. I am born in america and have pretty much any opportunity to achieve anything I have ever dreamt of. I am a white straight man who has good genes where I hardly have to workout to keep my body averagely fit. I live on 70 acres of property that my parents bought and they went 800k into debt to have. I have aunts and uncles who are prominent members in the community I live in and want to see me succeed. I have been given literally everything I have ever wanted in my life. When I was 19 my mom bought me a $700 guitar on my birthday just because I had a little bit of interest in it. When I was growing up every few years my dad would buy me a new dirtbike simply because I had outgrown the last one. On christmas I walk into the kitchen (that cost my parents $72,000 to build) and there are minimum 15 presents per child in my family. When my dad was making a lot of money and he owned his pharmacy he decided that he wanted to build a pool (100k) just because, "the house needs a pool." To this day I am twenty fucking six years old and my parents will send me $50 on a random weekend just because they want me and my girlfriend to have a good time. My mother cares more about my health than I do and she would buy a million dollar device if she knew that it would extend our lives for even 1 more minute. When I graduated college covid hit and I was given nearly $15k from the government simply because I applied and within 24 hours they just gave me a yearly salary of a single mother who works in downtown johnstown. I pissed it away in the market just fucking around and spending it on pretty much whatever the fuck I wanted. Once I ran out of the money I pretty much just asked my father for 30k because he had always told me that if we needed to get a loan for a business to go to him and not the bank. He gave me the money within 1 month of me showing him my shitty stats and basically just asking him, "hey give me a chance I can do this." That was all he needed to hear. When I get scared about trading I can just spend 7k of money I dont even fucking own to build a cabin near our pristine pond that sits in the direct center of our private property and I pretty much only had to ask my prarents a few times to get their permission. They just want me to be able to make money and they would sacrifice anything on their end to just see me be happy. I sent a picture of my cabin to my grandmother once I was partially finished and she basically said, "let me give you $5k to invest in your cabin because its just sitting in the bank anyway." Every year my parents take our entire family on some type of extravagant trip where they spend probably around 10k just to have us all be together in a cool place. I could type this forever. I have been given everything in this life and every single possible opportunity that one could give to their child. I simply could not have asked for more. Yes, I have had hardships but nothing more than anyone else in the world has experienced. It is so wrong the way that I expect life to just continue in this way. Trading DOESNT OWE ME ANYTHING. Trading DOESNT CARE THAT I HAVE BEEN GIVEN EVERYTHING. Trading is a reflection of my own insecurities and when I lose and feel like the world has spited me.....how dare I think that for even one second. How dare I expect this world to be as generous as my family has been. How dare I think that I have some innate ability to create things when I havent created a damn thing in my life. Trading is and will be the most difficult thing I do in my lifetime and it will not change ever. It will not get easy, it will not get simple, it will get HARDER and MORE COMPLICATED FOREVER.... Until I humble myself and realize that the reason I am here and in this position had pretty much nothing to do with me and everything to do with the environment I grew up in... I will never be successful. I need to find a way to remember how I feel right now and to never forget it. I am here from my environment, not my hard work. Dont screw it up and dont mix it up because that is the 100% truth. If I didnt have my family I would not be here and I would not have this opportunity so the next time I am sitting here punching monitors and punching walls and ripping books apart because I am wrong on a fucking trade.............GROW THE FUCK UP....Mom and Dad are not coming to the rescue this time and you are on your fucking own. If you want to succeed this is 100% on you and you alone. It will never happen if you think the world owes you something.