A+ Setup
10yr:1d
We fully filled the gap on the Daily chart and we tapped it to nearly the perfect tick. When a FVG is filled we can expect the market to price it as a discount since we are still in a much larger broad uptrend.
180d:4h
Another FVG that is going to want to be filled that is much higher than the LOD on the 1d:5m chart. This FVG will want to be filled and when we break down into the Daily FVG and tap the lows then its time to look for the reversal.
- This tells it all. We almost fully filled the daily FVG. Then we have an FVG from the 4h that is above the PDL. We have another 15m FVG that is above the PML and OP(W). We break through the OP(Q) and use it as a liquidity grab when we broke it on the second attempt it reversed hard then moved higher for the rest of the day eventually breaking the HOD by over 10 points. This was a massive missed opportunity. These FVGs above the LOD all want to be filled by the algorithims. When we extend that far through LOD then have a bunch of FVG above then we should expect them to get filled to fix the efficiency algorithim.
so far we have:
1. Filled Daily FVG
2. Left behind 2 large FVG on the 4h and the 15m that will have a natural draw to them because they want to be filled
3. Hit the OP(Q) and used it to grab liquidity
Ontop of all of that we also have
4. 1ATR hit around 9:30am
5. Internals all decreasing after 11:00
After all of these things combined ontop of one another we can now guarantee that this is an A+ setup. There is nothing really going against us here in terms of internals or price action. That is the easy part though, the entries and exits are the hard part.
1d:2m
- Here are a few more FVG on the 2m chart.
- This is where the clear structure is broken to the upside. At this point we can safely assume that the next FVG or the next BSL will get hit from the algo. Remember we also nearly filled that large daily FVG as well which will aid in the buying pressure.
- If you waited for the V to happen and you got the clear structure shift then this is the best entry point. When it break the FVG and breaks out then you can use it for the entry point on the next higher low. Reversals are tricky because they will always have a ton of fakeouts and scary price action so if you take them you have to be willing to really size and add into it or the trade may not be worth it. The only way to size properly though is to get a starter and use key levels as add zones. ICT does not teach that at least from what I have seen yet so let me see if I can add some of my own stuff into this FVG shit.
- See each of these spots? these are zones where the internals broke a previous lower low and they showed their hand. This happened at 10:44 on the VOLD and at 10:42 on the ADD. The LOD on ES was at 11:04 so thats 20 minutes of time to realize that divergence and to start to think about how you are going to trade this
1d:2m
- This area was all of the time we spent building up stops below the LOD. Anyone who got long was now going to use the LOD as their stopout level which means that the liquidity will naturally want to draw to those zones. If the internals are already reversed and we have 1 ATR and we are bouncing off OP(Q) and we filled the daily FVG, have 4h and 15m FVGs right above... you can buy the LOD break. This is a very rare exception to an otherwise awful idea
These are all possible trade ideas:
- Nail the LOD. If you do this just take the profits when you hit 10 points or come close to a super serious resistance. Anything above 7 points in my opinion is pretty good for a LOD trade like that because you are still fighting the trend and there is nothing saying the next pullback wont break the LOD again. Yes you could hold this all day and just add forever but im not sure thats quite my style yet but ill explore that at the end. Doing this trade with a scalp mindset will help me lock in gains much better.
- Here we have the safer option where you take the next attempted higher low after faking out the LOD. This is a really nice 5-10 point trade depending on where you place the target. Me personally I probably would not hold it this long unless I had multiple contracts. I would probably take my profits at the top of the unfilled FVG there on the 2m which is about 5 points again. This is another example where I could possibly hold for a bigger move but scalping will be much more profitable than trying to get 20 pointers all the time. Today is an exception because of all the factors contributing but on a normal day I should not be holding for that long looking for 20pts.
- Another continuation long here off the FVG formed on the 15m. Potential 7-10 points
- Another FVG retrace and push where a clean 6 points is right there. At this point you are doing continuation though so keep that in mind.
How would I trade this if I was looking for a Reversal which is described as a trade taken Against the Intraday Open Price. In reversals I think a logical target would be 50% retracement of the daily move from the 9:30 open. Lets try that as a target
So combine everything I stated up there already about ATR and all the reasons why this is an A+ trade how would I ideally trade that looking for a 50% retracement of the daily move from the 9:30 open
1d:5m 50% retracement
- Target is set to 4496
- Here is the Target (green line) and Stop (Red line) notice how the OP(Q) had many wicks below on the first attempt which shows buyers were sitting at that level, Once we break the LOD and then start to print candles back above the OP(Q) I want to start identifying that as a potential spot to look for the long. We also have been making consecutively weaker lower highs.
- Do all of that perfectly and then use the OP(Q) as the entry spot and watch for candle closures above that zone. Then sell at the 50% retracement of the days move from the 9:30 open. That would be the least aggressive target.
- The more aggressive target would be the 50% retracement from the OP(12:01am). In that case the trade will be much different.
- If my target was 50% retracement from OP then that is much different and I would have had the chance to probably add 2 more times, once through the breakout to a new higher high, and 2 on the FVG pullback. That wouldve been a damn hard spot to add though I wouldve been shitting my pants wanting to take my profits. This would have been about a 15 point trade which is dramatically different than the trade above where I took 9 points. I only had 2 contracts in the previous scenario and I would have had about 4 in this scenario. Thats about $90 in the first example and $300 in the second example. A much different result.
This is an A+ setup so I should have been targeting 50% of the daily price and not the 9:30 open price. That makes no sense. For the last time
1. Daily FVG fill
2. 4h FVG Draw
3. 15m FVG Draw
4. Internals turn 20 minutes before ES
5. Wicks above the OP(Q)
6. 1 point breakdown then strong thrust higher, reversal possible
7. 1ATR at 9:50
8. CPI in 2 days so tomorrow will be muted and today is usually volatile
9. Futures combo made HL when ES made LL and LOD.
Futures Combo:
ES:
Thats 9 Factors why this trade is really good. What are a few why its not?
1. Weight was moving lower even after ES put in a LOD
2. As a result, NQ also was putting in new lows while ES was not
- This is quite significant because the ES strength usually comes from Tech because thats just the most hyped and traded sector. I think it may be common though that the NQ may lag behind on days where the overall market will reverse. I am not sure why but I will start paying more attention to that in the future.
Other than that that is pretty much the only reason why I would be skeptical to hold this for too long. Notice how right at 10 the reversal started then at 11 the reversal faked out the early ones. If you were able to wait for that and nail the entry then place stop at 3 points below LOD and target at 50% daily retracement then that would be fucking epic to just come back and see if you won or not. Adding can sometimes make things tricky. I am not sure if adding is the right thing to do unless I am using like 10 contracts and want to pyramid but I think it may be better to just give myself that one entry and let it be
