*If 2 days prior to strong economic event. AVOID STRATEGY
1. Rate Hike
2. CPI/PPI
Not as important but may still cause range:
3. Non-Farm Payroll
4. Unemployment
5. JOLTs
May 31st, 2023
Rank:
- ORB high and low marked by golden lines.
- We have confluence on all factors above. Firstly, the Price action is in a downtrend, Secondly, the sectors are showing risk off behavior, thirdly, the depth (VOLD, ADD, TICK) are all showing heavy weakness. This is a clear B setup and not an A simply because we broke below the ORB bottom end and then ripped back into that zone before eventually failing. A true ORB would retest and not actually get back inside the opening range and then it fails strongly through lows. This did that but only after a pretty significant fakeout first.
May 22nd, 2023
Rank:
1. TA/Strat
- ORB was the previous day close, same exact area
- We had a clean breakdown through ORB Low after rejecting ORB high. I took this short and lost pretty fast after risking about 3 point back into the opening range.
- VOLD ADD both were trending higher immediately at open then started to move sharply down. We found a bottom quickly though and started to make new higher highs and lower lows.
- Risk on very green risk off very red.
2. Review
- This trade was a loss because I shorted basically a breaking news candle that was caused by an AI generated pentagon explosion post lol. Buyers immediately bought this back up and just held our range. I shouldve just exited really fast instead of taking a 5 point loss on this. Really unnecessary. I couldve lost like 2 points max but instead I lost 5. I need to learn that getting out fast for scalps is very much ideal. Its silly to scalp and hold a position for 25 minutes, its gotta go and its gotta go now if you want this type of trade to work. Sure, there are some weird mid day examples where we push off the ORB and continue but at that point those are continuation trades with ORB help, not the ORB strategy itself.
May 17th, 2023
Rank:
1. TA/Strat
- The opening range breakout to the downside did not work today but there was a clean consolidation above that level for a clean 30 point breakout mid day. This is a weird and unique example of combining an ORB with intraday continuation as well as a trend day. Entry on that level for the continuation through yesterdays high wouldve been a massive trade. Sadly today was the first day all week where I finally let the chop do its thing without me and then this is the price action I left behind. I need to stay longer if I want to be able to catch these trades. I need to stop thinking so emotionally and be more objective about the whole process of the day. If there is a clean setup you take it and dont confuse every trade with intraday continuation.
- Super obvious and clear VOLD continuation to upside and ADD continuation to upside as well as TICK holding above zero nearly all day. Wouldve been such an easy trade had I not been thinking logically and instead acted like a robot and followed the system. Every single risk on sector was green and every single risk off sector was red as well.
May 16th, 2023
Rank: D
- This is a D because the sectors were trending the opposite of depth and we hit a peak low on depth before hitting a LOD on the ORB.
1. TA/Strategy
- VOLD ADD TICK all found a nice V shaped bottom and started to move in the other direction. they peaked at 10:12 and 10:14 on ES and NQ. the ADD peaked at 10:11 and the TICK stayed below 0 nearly the entire day.
- Risk was being put on. Big red flag.
- We break the 30m OR and then retest with a small drop then a massive reclaim of the zone.
3. Review
Ideas: I cant give myself a hard time on this idea because everything was still trending lower at this point. The ADD TICK VOLD all peaked but it was not until about 10:22 that you had even a small clue that that was going to be the peak of the day. Even then it was hard to think a reversal was going to just happen. I think the only thing I couldve done here is maybe just take the smaller scalp and not expect a LOD since the depth was not hitting low of days either. Also if the open imbalance didnt work going short then this ORB might be really hard to catch as well. Tough price action to trade.
Execution: I stopped out a little too high on this trade. I shouldve probably just stopped out at breakeven given the sketchiness of this price action. This trade setup is a D as hell so not worth the money to lose on it at all.
May 15th, 2023
Rank: F- or whatever is worse than as terrible as it could possibly be
1. Fundamentals
- Firstly, banks were moving higher immediately before the open and that signal alone is enough of a reason to be weary of any short trade simply from the fact that that is by far the most sensitive sector in the entire market right now. If that is going anywhere DONT TRY TO FADE IT. It makes zero sense to try to do the opposite of the most beaten down sector in the market. Truly disgusting that I even thought for a second today to go short.
2. TA
- All banks highly green at the open
- VOLD green ADD selling, TICK above 0
- Every single sector opened red then found strong buyers when the idiots like me decided that shorting was the right idea
- Go short? yeah maybe not u fucking dumbass
- The retest was a candle closure above the 9ema
- the breakout above the low of opening range was another tell to not trade it again
3. Trade Review:
Idea: The first trade I can accept as a loss, the second was absolutely fuck no. We had a candle closure back above the opening range lows signalling that selling was not strong enough to hold the low. It also was closing above the 9ema multiple times back to back. Terrible trading on my part.
Execution: Again terrible. First entry and stop out was fine. Second trade was extremely unnecessary and gross.
May 13th, 2023
Rank: B
1. Fundamentals
- The market was opening slightly strong today but selling occurred pretty fast at the open with the ADD moving pretty heavily down after a little consolidation. We broke down below the OR and there were many opportunities to take a move lower.
2. TA/Strategy
- Clear weak buyers on VOLD and strong sellers on ADD
- Clean breakdown and retest of the ORB
3. Review
Trade Idea: A
- I knew to go short and I took the trades with confidence.
Execution: B
- Execution was not the best. I kinda entered a little too early on the first trade and a little too late on the second trade. I think the places I took profits though were quite nice for clean scalps in the OR. In total these 2 trades gave about 6 points but had I dont this strategy correctly I wouldve had 1 entry, 1 add, and 1 sell.
- This is what I should have done. 1 entry, 1 add, 1 exit. Entry is the retest of the ORB. Add is the confirmation of lower high continuation, Exit is the breakdown through prior lows. This strategy is one that I am very willing to scalp for smaller moves because reversals and fakeouts are very likely this early into the day and these ORBs dont happen super late so taking profits somewhat fast is probably always smarter than trying to hold for some insane move. This wouldve doubled my profits on this trade had I done it this way instead of the scalps I took. Idk if adding into this strategy is a good idea though because again the morning is so much more likely to reverse so dropping your average is perhaps not a good idea. I think maybe just taking this trade multiple times back to back and scalping the lows while watching and waiting for the clean breakdown and holding for that move, would be the best way to do it.
May 8th, 2023
Rank: F
1. Fundamentals
- CPI is in 2 days so the market is likely to range. This example is a great one for when the ORB is maybe not a good strategy given market conditions.
2. Technical anlaysis/strategy
1d:5m
- This is a beautiful example of the ORB being the locked in range of the day since we have a ton of information coming out this week. As you can see above the high and low of the 30m OR was marked and we had not 1 single candle close above or below those level for the entire day. This is a good emphasis of the whole "wait for a candle to close below or above the 30m OR then on the retest it should be taken." That variable is extremely important. Pay attention to this in the future
- This is also a decent example of the Premarket low being held multiple times as support as well as the after hours low from friday holding as support. When we combine macro information in near future, Opening range lining up with other key levels such as premarket low and after hours low, it may be less likely to work.
May 5th, 2023
Rank: B
1. Fundamentals
- The market has been bearish for a few days regarding the bank run fears and FOMC hawkishness. Breaking back out and finding a lower high from the FOMC area is not an unlikely scenario. People are probably also shorting the shit out of the market as always, causing large spikes in price that are unwarranted. This downward pressure can cause a nice "spring" up in price.
2. Technical Analysis/Strategy
10d:30m
- Massive breakout on the 30m downtrending channel
- We opened the day outside of the previous days range which also is a massive signal that we may have extreme momentum
1d:5m
- Beautiful breakout continuation
- Extreme VOLD readings of +7-9, ADD was slightly consolidating, TICK was vastly green given all the values above +600 and hardly any values getting below -600.
- Nearly every sector was HEAVILY green at the open and pushing higher. Again another indicator telling us to get long and hold
Strategy
1d:5m (ORB)
- This was a beautiful opening range breakout. I shouldve taken the retest of the OR then sold at the first candle to attempt to break the 9ema and on the next pop sell. This wouldve been the first easy trade of the day where I wouldve gotten about anywhere from minimum 5 points to maximum 11.
1d:5m (ORB retest, or Intraday Continuation)
- Again the VOLD ADD TICK were all strong, AAPL strong, indices strong. This mid day consolidation bull flag pullback to opening range high was BEAUTIFUL. This wouldve been the best trade of the day. Retest of OR high then entry and close on the first 5m candle to close below the 9ema. Perfection.
May 3rd, 2023 (FOMC)
1. Big picture/Fundamentals
- Today was FOMC so we were expecting not much volatility before the event. Although, the ORB wouldve still worked yet again.
2. Technical Analysis
1d:2m
- We have a clean and clear opening range here where we failed at the top end of it and then we broke to the bottomside and immediately gave a beautiful retest to the bottomside of the range and you couldve entered here with a target of a 2m candle closure above the 9ema. Although that is usually a good idea, I think taking this trade before that point would be a smart idea given the fact that FOMC was happening at 2pm and volume was going to be low and probability of ranging moves was going to be very high.
3. Trade Strategy
- There were 2 possible exit points. The first exit is a break to new LOD after the initial drop from the opening range. The 2nd exit is the 2m candle closure above the 9ema. Both of these exits are good given the ES broke back above the opening range shortly after this example but the 1st exit gives about 7 points and second exit gives about 3-4 points. No, these are not huge winners but they are winners nonetheless and if there is a clean setup that I can win a large majority of the time on, why the hell would I not take it?
May 2nd, 2023
1. The Big Picture/Fundamentals
- We have FOMC tomorrow and the market is supposed to be low volume chop today yet it got very weak very fast. We broke pm low immediately at the open and XLF was leading the sectors to the downside.
2. Technical Analysis
1. 30m candle closure H/L marked
2. 2m candle closure above or below H/L (at least 1 point)
3. Retest of that level (X)
4. 5m candle closure above or below the 9ema
- We had perfect parameters here, 30m H/L was broken clean and we accelerated very quickly to the downside. There was a small retest on the 2m where we had an attempted candle close back inside the Opening range but it failed and we accelerated about 30 points straight to the downside. This was a perfect place to get in given the fact that the VOLD TICK ADD all were moving heavily lower at the open.
- Clear massive selling at the open. VOLD was getting way stronger right at 10 which was the perfect entry point on ORB. ADD selling off huge and TICK not 1 single value above 0. This is extreme selling pressure making this ORB a particularily special one. This is an A+ example of VOLD ADD TICK
