Grade: C-

Goals: Be more selective and raise winning %

Reminders/Aphorisms: 

  • Don't fight the trend;
  • Be patient, take good set-ups
  • Respect at least 2:1 R/R

Overview: I WILL BE PATIENT - I WILL ONLY TAKE A GOOD SET-UP. I have been taking suboptimal trades recently and trading poorly becuase the market has not been giving opportunities. This is dumb. If there is no set-up - DO NOT TRADE. A scratch day is better than red. Today JPow speaks at 2:30 p.m. which should rattle the market a little and we should see action start to pick up. Until then I expect the market to be rather flat. Yesterday we had the same bullshit in the morning and then a big drop after I stopped trading at around 11:00, hitting the 393 zone and bouncing. That was really the only clean move to trade. I should not have taken a trade yesterday. Yesterday we played with previous day close and the 395-396 zone for most of the day before the big drop. By the end of the day we wended near the bottom of the zone, and then moved up above it during premarket. We topped out around 397.27 which was around the high yesterday and then started moving down again at 8:30 a.m. when some news on GDP etc came out. We are starting flat on the day and in the zone. Potential scenarios:

1) I believe we'll likely range or have choppy movement until JPow speaks at 1:30 p.m. However, because of the news this morning the market appears to be moving down. I think we likely move down to the 393 zone again where we see a reversal and bounce up to the 395-396 zone again. We'll likely range between these two zones.

2) If this sell-off is just some profit taking, we could see a move up back to 397 where we topped out the other day. If we do move up to 397, I will look at price action to determine if a short would be called for back to 395-396.

3) Once JPow speaks while he most likely will not say anything - but if he sounds like they are going to keep incraesing rates we'll likely move down.

Trade Analysis:

 

  • I did not take any trades during regular hours and took a couple of stupid trades after JPow was speaking - pure gambling.
  • NOTES: 

Lesson moving forward: PATIENCE. Not every day will provide opportunity and there's no reason to force anything.