February 28th
Futures
1st Trade: Micro Reversal Intraday Reversal
1d:2m
30d:30m Oval area is where trade took place
- There are a couple things that are very interesting about this trade. Firstly, I averaged into a loser where I was down 15 points at the bottom. I sold for about a 14 point win on 2 contracts. I want to start exploring the idea of this strategy but at the same time this market is so volatile and rangey that its really hard to trust a true trend anymore. I think when we range like this its almost mandatory to take profits at anything close to 15 points. If you go for more you risk holding the move the entire way back down and vice versa going short. This was my biggest individual day trading win of my career but it just didnt feel right because I couldve shorted multiple times throughout the past few days and really made a ton of money and made it a lot easier than going long. Right after this move we dropped huge and swept the low of day very quickly.
March 1st
Futures
1st Trade: Micro Reversal Intraday Reversal
1d:2m
30d:30m
- This trade was very nice for a few reasons. Firstly, I had a thesis in the morning that we were going to swep the lows and bounce higher because this range has been so tight for so long and the MMs love to fakout the lows then rip higher, taking out all the stops of early longs, and also baiting in shorts to catch the move lower. I said that PMI was going to be a neutral catalyst and the smart money was going to sell the news to do exactly what I stated above, takeout the lows, trap longs/shorts, go higher. I waited for that moment where we broke down through the premarket low and I got long. I didnt think that we were going to breakout and the move happened so fast for me that I was just willing to take the profits. Thank god I did because we just ranged back and forth the entire day. There are a few things I think I am doing fundamentally wrong in all the trades in this post though. Why am I not shorting?
Missed Opportunities
Feb 28th
1d:2m
March 1st
1d:2m
- In both of these pictures I went long in the oval areas. If you notice though the red boxes are simply lower highs and they are so clean to short into. I think its really hard for me to go long and short in the same day but this wouldve been a great opportunitiy a month ago when I only wanted to short every single day hahha. I really need to be focused on these setups. On the top example (Feb 28th) i held a long position for 4 hours to get 14 point whereas if I wouldve just shorted the lower high on the micro timeframe I wouldve made way more and a lot faster. Same with the March 1st example. Yes the green moves definitely had some thrust but they also bounce super hard on simply betting where the next lower low or higher low will be. That is a tricky game to play. I like the trade I took cuz I had clean risk but Idk If I wouldve just bought it again after seeing it selloff that hugely at the PDC. The last move that failed to get through PDC multiple times was a super nice short to take. We had PDC and yesterdays low as well at the HOD not being broken (lower high) and also failed moves above that level multiple times on the day. That was an easy short to go for another 10 points no problem. Once I start learning that going short on micro downtrends no matter the circumstances, I will really start to make a lot more money.
30d:30m
-Look at all the lower highs we have to risk shorts off of. Most of these shorts also are aggressive and swift to the downside whereas the green moves tend to grind slowly higher. These all are laddering down with clear areas to risk. Now look at the bottom bounces below
30d:30m
- Look at how the lows do not ladder down whatsoever. They make lower lows then higher lows then lower lows then higher lows. It is much harder to go long when the market is moving in a downtrend for this exact reason. The downward tops are much easier to catch than bottom bounces simply from the fact that the selling pressure is a ladder down and the buying pressure is sporadic and unpredictable.
Solution
WHEN THE MICRO IS DOWN, SHORTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
