January 20, 2023 (4 Trades) (-$67.50)

Overall Grade: D

Day Summary: Wow! I really don't think anyone expected to have such a massive trending day to the upside after such a big move down just 2 days ago. We started out the day in the range from yesterday's trading session, but very quickly broke out of that and trended up all day long. I really need to get better at trusting the trend on days when we clearly have such a strong trend, even though today's trend was not very predictable, unlike the sell off trend day on Wednesday. I ended up doing what I always do, shorted a grinding green day twice today, even when I know that doesn't work! Really not much to say, just gotta be better.

DAILY - ES Futures (screenshot taken after Friday session close)

5 MIN - ES Futures

                                                Trades

Trade 1 - Short 1 Contract @ PM Low Retest (Scalp)

Grade: C

  • This trade worked for a scalp, but at this point in the day we were ranging, and I was shorting into the bottom of the range. Not very smart
  • I need to be asking myself more "Are we ranging or trending?" and then trade it accordingly
  • Good thing I scalped this trade because it basically turned out to be LOD
  • I don't have anything against scalping small moves with a thesis (PM Low) but don't be shorting into range support or vice versa

FIX: Recognize the range and trade it properly (Buy Lows, Sell Highs)

 

Trade 2 - Short 1 Contract @ 2min Trendbreak Retest

Grade: C

  • Another scalp, which I'm ok with, because I had a thesis, defined stop, and knew I was going to take profits quick on this trade which I executed properly
  • Good job not expecting and holding for continuation on this trade
  • However, was this really worth exposing myself to inherent market risk ? The answer is NO
  • At this point in the day, I should already be recognizing that we had broken the range, and to give it some time to develop to see if we start trending from here, or fall back into the range

FIX: Avoid this trade! Wait for confirmation on what we are going to do after breaking the range

 

Trade 3 - Short 2 Contracts (1 initial, 1 Added - Avg Down) @ Gap Fill / SPY Pivot

Grade: D+

  • Ahh mann! When are you gonna learn not to fight the mf trend
  • Look at the 5 min chart here. Does this look like it would be good to short ? Because I see strength in that bitch
  • I was willing to risk a bit on this trade because I was up on the day from my 2 small scalps, so I took 1 contract at the Gap level from the night after Wednesday's big sell off (should have taken a screenshot of SPY Gap)
  • I thought this would be a more significant level, but I ended up being biased to that thesis, when I really didn't have any confirmation to enter other than that "plan"
  • I placed my 1 contract stop 2 ticks above the high of the previous day's session, which I also thought would be a strong resistance. After testing it and failing twice, i added 1 contract to average down
  • I don't normally like to average down, but this was so close to my stop level that I knew it would bring my average down a lot and wouldn't cause me significant P/L damage if I lost. I ended up stopping about 5mins later

FIX: Don't short grinding green (trending days) & don't buy dips on trending red days. Just don't! Not worth it!

 

Trade 4 - Short 2 Contracts (No Set Up)

Grade: F

  • I think I took this trade just to be reminded yet again that "It's Over-Extended" is not a set up
  • Market proply bitch slapped me for this on the very next candle. Well deserved.
  • This was simply overtrading, FOMO, and boredom trading. No excuse to be taking a trade here. Just really, really bad man
  • This turned a $20 red day into a $70 red day in just under 2mins
  • Only good thing about this was I stuck to my stop, because I woulda lost 15 more points over the next 10-15 mins if I held

FIX: Fuck off and enjoy your weekend at 3pm on a Friday. Also, here is a good idea, how about DON"T FIGHT THE TREND ??

 

Takeaways: Today was another day where I failed to identify strength & direction in the market and I paid for it. The sad part is, if i wasn't a degen, I coulda walked away with a $20 red day, which is nothing, but instead I went back and lost my profits from yesterday. That is just plain old bad risk and capital management. I just finished telling myself yesterday that all the trades I take should have multiple confirmations or they just aren't worth it, and today I sucombed to my weak discipline.  I can't continue to let that happen. Luckily for me, $70 can be made up in one good trade, but I NEED to be more patient next week. I know I can do this. Keep applying discipline to other areas of my life and i know it will slowly transition over to my trading. Monday will be interesting as we closed at the "new downtend on the daily"

 

Easy Money: Go long and hold after breaking the range to the upside. Again, i don't think today's price action was as easily predictable as Wednesday's sell off, but when you see strength like that, go with it!