March 20th
Well we have FOMC on wednesday so I really just wanted to get in and get the fuck out of the market. At the beginning of the day we have a grinding green pattern where we just slowly and continuously breakout with higher highs and higher lows. Then seemingly out of nowhere the market just TANKed. It took me until the bottom of that big red move to realize that the reason we were tanking had nothing to do with price action or technical analysis. It was because FRC decided that even after being bailed out it is still at risk of big losses. Once I saw FRC halting lower very fast one would assume that going for a continuation short on that big ass red move would make sense right? NOPE...What if there was a big bear flag?? NOPE doesnt matter. Well I went short 3 times below vwap and at the bear flag formation and I stopped out 3 times for tiny losses. I finally caught a nice move later but holy hell what the fuck is the point of trading if I am subject to these Macro news drops with no clue what the hell happened?
Futures:
1st: Micro Continuation Intraday Continuation
2nd: Micro Continuation Intraday Continuation
3rd: Micro Continuation Intraday Continuation
4th: Micro Continuation Intraday Continuation
Why continuation and not reversal? Once we broke down heavily on that first red move I consider this chart to be in a backside so I am going for a backside continuation of that trade.
- Like I said I really thought we would breakdown because this is a perfect bear flag combined with VWAP combined with - VOLD combined with TICK below 0 combined with ADD breaking to new LOD combined with regional bank selloff. Guess none of that matters because I lost on all of my first 3 trades and then we spiked massively higher. Once we spiked and failed to make a NHOD then that was a clear lower high setup for continuation lower. Luckily I took my profits at 8 points and didnt go for more because I wouldve ended up losing had I held this trade longer.
Takeaways:
When the market is doing macro crazy shit that I cant predict....just dont trade. The market is so random to begin with, I do not need even more reasons for the market to be random like a big ass news event happening while I am in a trade. It is ridiculous to think that TA just dies the second some dipshit from the fed opens their mouth or when some bank that has the risk management department ran by 4 year olds goes under. Unfortunately if I decide to not trade when macro things are occurring I would pretty much be cutting out like 90% of all days in the market because right now that is all the market cares about. I think its best to just keep it slow and steady, wait for clean moves, size into them. GET THE FUCK OUT OF THE MARKET. That is how trading needs to be done right now
