November 14, 2022 (6 Trades) (-$19.00)
Grade: B-
Day Summary: Today was filled with some pretty shit price action, especially in the morning session. After 2pm there were definately more opportunities, some of which I saw but did not take. But considering I was red on the day, i'm happy I had the discipline to watch the charts from 2pm-4pm and not take any trades. Supply and Demand zones were respected quite well today but it was still dificult to trade because it was quite choppy in those areas. Going into the close, we finally had a big sell off, and it will be interesting to see if that continues tomorrow after the huge gap up we had on Thursday from the most recent CPI report. Tomorrow we also have PPI data coming out, so it is not surprising to see the market undecisive today.
- Also to note, I had a big red day on Friday (-$262.00) before traveling home from the Dominican Republic, but I did not make a review. Today I wanted to be more patient and I was, but i still traded too much today.
1YR:1D - SPY
1D:5M - 1D:1M - SPY
Trades
Trade #1 - Long 3 Puts @ Trend Break Retest (Trend Reversal)
Grade: B+
- I am not unhappy with this trade considering I waited for it to break its uptrend and that it happened in a supply zone defined from the opening 10 minutes of the day
- SPY was also on a strong uptrend (5min chart all green candles) so i figured it would have some type of pullback, but I was wrong and at least did a good job of cutting my loss
- I lost on this trade but I would personally take this again. I should remember not to short frontside moves, but at this point, it hadn't yet showed that it was a sustainable frontside or grinding green move
FIX: I need to remember that it is always more difficult to tarde against the trend and that these reversals are very hard to catch. Better to wait for the trend reversal continuation trade when you can have more Smart Money on your side
Trade #2 - Long 3 Puts @ PM High resistance (Trend Continuation)
Grade: B
- I see what I was going for on this trade but we were getting very close to VWAP and looking at the 5min chart, this would be the zone where we could have been primed for a bounce, which we did
- I held this trade and gave it a chance to breakdown but I could just feel the buyers holding it up and decided to flatten out for a small gain - really not worth the commissions but it was an smart spot to stop out because of the buyers and the zone that we were in. I contemplated holding this all the way to my initial risk but the trade thesis had decayed significantly in my mind so taking it off for a small gain was in my mind the best option
FIX: Avoid shorting "good looking" pullbacks on a day that has already proven some strength (5min chart -7 green candles)
Trade #3 - Long 3 Calls looking for the PM High to hold as a pullback (Trend Continuation)
Grade: C-
- My entry on this trade was too early and based on FOMO
- It wasn't a bad idea, and had I been more patient I probably would have had a decent winner on this trade
- Remember how important entries are and that if the entry I want doesn't show itself, i should have the mental discipline to avoid the trade. Trades are significantly easier to manage when you have a good entry!
FIX: Be patient for those great entries!!
Trade #4 - Long 3 Puts @ Trend Break Retest (Trend Reversal)
Grade: B+
- Similar to Trade #1 and I am, again, not unhappy with this trade
- Happy at least that now when I am trying to catch trend reversals I am quite disciplined at actually waiting for the trend to break and retest
- However, this was right at PM High, so a difficult zone to go for a trend reversal trade. I took profits on this tarde due to that and that it was showing that is wasn't going to fail easily. Thankfully I decided to take profits because this did pop back up and continue higher. That is a big sign of strength, especially since this was the second time it had attempted to break an uptrend and was instantly bought back up
- Also happy I did hold this and give it a chance to breakdown before bailing on it. If it did decide to breakdown here, it could've potentially moved to VWAP which coulda been a big trade because I still made back about 40$ on this small move
FIX: Be careful when taking this short around bullish levels (PM High, VWAP) even if it is breaking trend. A much more probable trade would be a trend break when the price is more extended from these bullish levels
Trade #5 - Long 3 Puts going for Trend Continuation
Grade: C+
- I would probably consider this my most risky trade of the day. It had already sold off quite a bit and even though I made money on this, it was dangerous, as you can see if you look at Trade #6 (Below) it continued much higher shortly after
- I entered this trade anticipating it would drop because of the previous wick attempting to break the trend. This was more of a guess than a calculated trade and I should not be looking to take trades like this
- Looking at the 5min chart, this was also in the consolidation zone from the open
- Thankfully took profits almost perfectly on this trade, but I got lucky on this trade
FIX: Never guess at moves without confirmation
Trade #6 - Long 3 Calls at supply/demand zone pullback after big push up from sell off (Trend Continuation)
Grade: B+
- This actually was probably the best trade I took today, mainly because I was only looking to scalp it, and after seeing that big push a few minutes before, I was quite confident I'd get a quick pop and be able to get out
- Typically those big volume pops or sell offs indicate there will be at least 1 retest of the high
- The problem I have on this trade is I really didn't have a set risk when i entered, but ended up deciding it would be the low from before it sold off just to the left on the chart
FIX: Do not enter a trade without a predetermined risk. That is very dangerous and can lead to holding a loser or moving a stop
Takeaways: Patience is key and entries are extremely important. Not like I didn't already know those things but it's always good to reiterate them. I also need to be more confident in my intraday supply and demand zones as I have seen price respect them a lot recently since I started drawing them.
Easy Money: Late day sell off. High volume and after grinding and chopping all day, this could have been expected. That was the time to be looking for trend continuation shorts. We are still in a bear market and we have seen time and time again that the sell offs are more violent than the long moves
