Parameters:
- Best taken days before a large uncertainty event
1. Are VOLD ADD TICK Sectors doing the OPPOSITE of eachother?
2. Are we holding back in side the ORB?
3. Did we get the entry on the way back into the ORB after the initial fakeout?
4. Did we sell at a key level?
May 22, 2023
Rank: F
1. Fundamentals- FOMC minutes on wednesday so market is ready for chop. I need to realize though that chop needs to be very very broad and I cant just go long on levels because they were the 15 or 30m ORB. The ORB is possibly a bad spot to get into this style of trade. Maybe its better to just wait for strong dips and grab them on the way up instead of going long at an arbitrary level.
2. TA
- We have insane range today that was very terrible. I shouldve probably avoided today altogether but this is just disgusting. I took 3 longs over the 4209 area to get stopped out.
May 16th, 2023
Rank: B
- I am unsure if ever using more than 1 contract no matter what the quality because i have not taken this setup enough time to have clear entry and exit criterium. I think that for now just always use 1 contract and if you get something that makes a lot of sense in the future then go ahead and take it. I think getting the retest is the #1 most important key to this strategy.
1. Fundamentals
- When the market is indecisive there is a good chance of a ranging move occuring. I want to still be able to make money on these moves as it is my job to trade the setups I see available. Today we had the VOLD ADD TICK all contradicting the sector momentum as well as clear nonfollowthrough on the ES multiple times. Also, JP is talking friday which could act as a big catalyst for an outsize move. Days before these catalysts its more and more likely that we range and do not choose a clear direction.
2. TA/Strategy
- In the morning we were trending lower on the ADD VOLD and the TICK was holding below zero but trending upwards. After the VOLD and ADD found clean bottoms they moved very significantly in the opposite direction. This was a clear indication of confusion in the markets. This strategy plays off of confusion and confusion alone. When we have weird trends like this that contradict one another back to back to back, then this strategy becomes more and more likely to work.
- Like I said above, the VOLD ADD TICK are all pointing to the downside clearly and the sectors are doing the exact opposite. Financials are the only sector that is doing what they should be doing, following the VOLD ADD TICK. Everything else was contradictory, if risk on is green then the market should move higher if risk off is red the market should move higher. Today none of that happened and instead since there were so many contradictory values, the market chopped up.
from left to right:
1st Circle: this big topping tail ripping back above the 15m opening range was a clear indication that selling may not be robust and as strong as it must be for the 30m orb to work out correctly.
2nd: this break back above and the failure of the ORB was another telltale sign that the ORH might be a viable setup.
3: this is a great reason to WAIT for the ORH to show itself before taking it in the future, you want to see a reaction off of a level before just buying a dip out of nowhere, this hold was a great example of a ORH trade working out perfectly.
4. Another entry example after the reclaim
5. Possible dip buy but breaks the rule of a test first then the pullback after the small fakeout.
3. Trade Review
1st Trade: This was not bad, I got the reclaim of the OR and then sold at the opening print price which I think was a great example of this strategy.
Idea: I was totally correct to expect a range today simply from the fact that the VOLD ADD TICK all moving and signalling lower but the VOLD started to trend back higher along with the ADD after the first big drop of the day. The sectors were also moving higher so why isnt the SPY? I got the reclaim of the 30m orb for a clean breakout for about 3.5 points.
Execution: I got in on the reclaim which is perfect, I got out 1 point below a key level which is also good (for now)
2nd Trade: This was an attempt at getting in at the same price for the hold of the ORB.
Idea: The idea was 100% perfect because I was right on the trade going back up but I was wrong on my timing and execution.
Execution: Execution was very poor here. I was in way too early and I shouldve gotten back in on the reclaim of that zone instead of the first drop into that zone. The range must show its holding before I get back in for a reversion. This had the potential to be the biggest trade of the day but I was way too eager to take it.
