The Charts

SpaceX IPO

SPY$751.71+0.85% Heat Map - Does not contain SPCX$162.00+2.83% yet..

"SpaceX will not join the S&P 500 until June 2027 at the earliest. The S&P index committee ruled out fast-tracking mega-IPOs, meaning the company must first fulfill the strict 12-month public seasoning requirement, satisfy cumulative profitability benchmarks, and reach a 10% public float threshold." (yfinance)

Why our Hedge Fund won't invest in SpaceX on IPO day - but here’s the exact price we would

Source: https://x.com/bespokeinvest/status/2069130504461312254

WEN$7.33-6.80% is down roughly 80% from its highs. Today, it went up because a Reddit group started discussions about making it the next meme stock. How wild is that..

"Wendy's was surging on Wednesday after several users on Reddit's WallStreetBets subreddit called for retail investors to buy shares in the struggling fast-food chain." - George Glover

AI & The Semi Trade

Another worth reading:

The most positive macro case for risk assets is currently underappreciated. Rather than triggering systemic labor collapse, AI is expected to steadily increase economic productivity and expand corporate profit margins at a pace that allows for a manageable reconfiguration of the global workforce. (JPmorgan)

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-28/goldman-traders-see-a-short-squeeze-brewing-for-unloved-sectors

Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2058994917720916039

Source: https://x.com/bespokeinvest/status/2062192621431169341/photo/1

Source: https://x.com/bespokeinvest/status/2062129988401336735
493 is gonna move!

Source: https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/2062177991682093549/photo/1

Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2067964398157582653

Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2070676989418025117

Source: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/06/why-are-investors-holding-more-cash/
Citadel Securities has some data on this trend: Nine of the ten largest retail trading days ever observed on our platform have occurred in just the last month, including seven during the first half of June alone. Friday (June 12) marked the largest single day of retail net buying in our dataset, surpassing the previous record by 50%.

Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2068025769746387227

Source: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/06/why-are-investors-holding-more-cash/

Source: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/06/why-are-investors-holding-more-cash/

Source: https://x.com/Callum_Thomas/status/2068838443246096547
Read the 5 points, #2 is important

Source: https://en.macromicro.me/collections/7/us-housing-relative/36378/us-financial-debt-to-income-ratio

Source: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/23/saving-rate

Crypto

Source: https://x.com/KevRGordon/status/2069786896562040905/photo/1

Source: https://x.com/sam_gatlin/status/2069515313633259960/photo/1

COIN$149.06+4.59% - Ascending Channel breakdown and retest. This is usually the confirmation; great time to add to shorts.

BTC$26.18-1.10% COIN$149.06+4.59% so far so good

Fed & Kevin Warsh

Fact:

Stock markets historically average a 12% drawdown during a new Fed Chair's first three months. (carson)

Takeaway:

Treat any near-term volatility as the final clearance window to rotate capital out of expensive, high-multiple software setups and aggressively lock in historically high dividend yields-on-cost

i.e. CAG$13.78+1.25% Conagra 9.8%, CPB$22.73+1.70% Campbell Soup 7.8%, PFE$23.67-1.54% Pfizer 6.71%, HRL$25.00+0.48% Hormel 5.01%

Fact: Stock markets historically average a 12% drawdown during a new Fed Chair's first three months. Takeaway: Treat any near-term volatility as the final clearance window to rotate capital out of expensive, high-multiple software setups and aggressively lock in historically high dividend yields-on-cost

Source: https://chartkidmatt.com/p/returns-after-new-fed-chairs

Source: https://chartkidmatt.com/p/returns-after-new-fed-chairs

Source: https://chartkidmatt.com/p/returns-after-new-fed-chairsSource: https://chartkidmatt.com/p/returns-after-new-fed-chairs
The average 1-year forward return across all of these instances is 8.0% with an average -17.5% max drawdown along the way. Some volatility along the way, sure, but overall solid one year out."

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-18/inflation-uptick-is-starting-to-send-sell-signals-to-stock-bulls

IRAN & Energy

Source: https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-drops-below-4-gallon-as-summer-travel-heats-up/
"The national average per kilowatt hour of electricity at a public EV charging station went down one cent this past week to 41 cents.

Source: https://www.allstarcharts.com/blog
H&S inside a H&S

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nomura-strategist-warned-the-market-selloff-was-coming-here-are-the-forces-he-says-are-taking-stocks-down-b3083358

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-18/big-tech-s-ai-spending-spree-is-making-stock-buybacks-disappear

Source: https://www.isabelnet.com/total-real-return-of-1000-investment-with-dollar-cost-average-vs-sp-500-valuations/

Source: https://x.com/ISABELNET_SA/status/2070429012380229952

Source: https://x.com/C_Barraud/status/2070041752837177405

Source: https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/more-cautionary-tales

BABA$95.07-4.74% has arrived at a HUGE Support zone

News

1. May 2026 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey
2. Mark Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Create a Prediction Markets App META$542.87-2.68%
3. Meta designs its own glasses in the race for your face META$542.87-2.68%
4. Blackstone restricts flagship fund withdrawals as private asset fears reemerge
5. Midjourney, the AI image generator, is developing a full-body ultrasonic scanner BFLY$7.68-3.15%
6. Midjourney said last week that it’s developing a machine capable of creating a detailed 3-D map of your body in under 60 seconds while you’re submerged in a pool with tiny sensors. Shares of Butterfly Network, the company behind the tech that will power Midjourney’s scanner, have jumped 35% since the announcement last week:
7. Massachusetts-based Butterfly makes handheld ultrasound devices powered by cutting-edge computer chips at a fraction of the cost of more traditional, bulky ultrasound machines.
8. It expects to reap as much as $74 million in the next five years from Midjourney’s quest to make a cheaper MRI-imaging alternative.
9. AI models capable of devastating attacks on governments and business months away, rare Five Eyes statement warns
10. Fable 5 relevance, and general OpenAI / Anthropic planned IPOs
11. Applebee's viral 'Dollaritas' are returning this July. Here's when DIN$30.00+1.90%
12. Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low, and stores are pulling out all stops
13. Eager to work, teens find a frustrating summer job search
14. Direct quote reflects my thoughts: "don't see the value in hiring someone without any experience," as artificial intelligence and minimum-wage laws discourage hiring teens.
15. Trump says he’s not signing the bipartisan housing bill until SAVE Act is passed QXO$16.21-2.00% GXO$51.95+1.31% SWK$91.90+0.61%
16. Set to pass in 10 days
17. Will be good for housing
18. Micron tops Q3 earnings estimates, offers better-than-expected outlook and declares dividend MU$1,213.56+15.81% INTC$132.87+0.73%
19. Q3 revenue reaching $41.5 billion compared to $9.3 billion for the same quarter last year
20. It's time to buy puts
21. Reddit turned Wendy’s into the newest meme stock
22. Wendies pays a 7% dividend, hmm - right up our current macro theme - need to do more DD on Wendy's
23. Per data from MarketBeat, ~32% of Wendy’s stock is shorted
24. "Buyers cited confidence in Wendy’s hiring of CFO Steve Cirulis this week, a move that comes a month after Bob Wright was installed as the new CEO. Both come from the sandwich chain Potbelly, which had impressive growth during their more than five years there together"
25. Federal Reserve says U.S. banks can withstand $708 billion in losses amid overhaul of capital rules
26. Includes
27. 10% unemployment rate
28. 39% drop in commercial real estate prices
29. 30% decline in home prices
30. This is based on an estimated -58% plunge in equity prices (stock market crash) over the first three quarters.
31. Federal Reserve releases bank stress test results
32. US home sales jumped more than expected in May, in a sign that buyers are willing to look past rising mortgage rates.
33. great for our QXO$16.21-2.00%, GXO$51.95+1.31%, SWK$91.90+0.61% positions
34. BofA’s Raedler Says Defensives Ready to Roar if AI Trade Falters
35. Basically, our whole portfolio
36. World Cup Could Boost the Economy by $45 Billion, Dwarfing the Taylor Swift Effect
37. Think DEO$82.61-0.43%
38. Semiconductor Exposure in S&P 500 Hits 18%. That’s More Than Double the Tech Bubble Peak
39. It's the crowded trade right now; when the spotlight moves, this will get ugly quick.
40. In Brief: Mid-Year Outlook for 2026
41. "the cycle continues, but the rules of the game are changing. The global economy is moving from a low-cost, efficiency-first model towards one where redundancy, reliability, resilience, and control carry a higher premium. We are calling this environment the ‘Divergence Conundrum,’ an investing landscape where certain segments of the economy and markets are starved for capital, while others are flush with attractive financing options. "
42. Source: https://www.kkr.com/insights/in-brief-mid-year-update-2026

This proves the thesis of our fund. We're in a massive passive index bubble. Most people are not stock-picking; they are buying the SPY$751.71+0.85% - which has worked out super well, but eventually the music will stop, and we'll be in for another lost decade. This is our core hedge fund thesis.

Source: https://www.morningbrew.com/poll/a318cfcb-97cd-4fcf-a026-f46d321841ec?key=df158327433d&mbcid=46294473.546827&mid=fad2be4fe86f8bc0d68062dd6968316e

More and more pressure to build new or remodel old.

QXO$16.21-2.00% GXO$51.95+1.31% SWK$91.90+0.61%

Have you seen CAT$963.53-2.81%

Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/27414/good-time-to-buy-a-house

Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/36355/homebuying-intentions-among-young-americans

Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/34534/median-house-price-versus-median-income-in-the-us

Source: https://themortgagepoint.com/2026/05/12/housing-market-shifts-towards-buyers-but-negotiating-power-may-have-hit-its-peak/

Food For Thought

GOOG$342.19-0.82%

Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/30685/highest-earning-online-creators

META$542.87-2.68%

Source: https://www.statista.com/chart/36348/share-of-us-respondents-with-the-following-opinions-behaviors-concerning-ads-and-marketingSource: https://www.statista.com/chart/22744/market-size-number-of-agencies-in-influencer-marketing-worldwide

Books

Good to Great by jim collins

"greatness is first and foremost a matter of conscious choice and discipline"

Notes To Our Readers

The Launch of "Winkler Weeklies"

As many of you know, I’ve put out a massive amount of market content in the past, especially on YouTube. But candidly, managing a heavy content schedule during the week can easily interfere with strategy execution, which is why I've done much less over the last 2 years.

When forced to choose between pushing out a polished marketing piece and doing the actual work required to protect and compound your capital, I will always choose the latter.

Because I’ve strictly prioritized managing our positions over the last few months, sometimes our communication cadence has been less consistent than desired. In our last update, I mentioned shifting toward midweek notes, but the reality of weekday noise makes it an uphill battle to execute with focus.

To provide massive value and total transparency without tripping over my primary job, making our LPs wealthy, here's what I'll try out: "Winkler Weeklies" a transparent post & video briefing on everything we're doing at the fund:

1. Charts - New positions we're scaling into and favorite technical chart setups.
2. More Charts - Core fundamental reviews and high-level macro updates.
3. & Calendars - My latest whereabouts and updates from our operational bases.

Performance

As a reminder, you can track all real-time fund returns, historical performance data, and your individual capital accounting metrics directly inside our secure NAV Investor Portal at winklercapital.com/login.

May reports are out and June should be out by the end of next week.

Holiday Homework

Before heading into the holiday weekend, I want to leave our network with a quick exercise..

Hormozi said "Everything you want is on the other side of a few hard conversations you’ve been putting off."

This post from Luca Dellanna hits that point home perfectly.

Take some time and answer those things, and maybe have those hard conversations afterward.

Have a fantastic, safe, and Happy 4th of July!

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If you have specific questions, asset classes, or setups you want me to break down on an upcoming podcast episode, drop them in the video comments or submit them directly through our contact portal at winklercapital.com/contact.html.