February 1, 2023 (5 Trades) (-$27.50)

Overall Grade: C

Day Summary: Today was the first FOMC Day Rate Hike in 2023. JP came out and dropped 25bps on the market, which it seemed to love. I traded poorly today, stabbing at a lot of mid-range, low probability trades in the morning and undercapitalized on trading the FOMC volitility (TOS) but I at least managed to limit myself to a very small red day. If I can consistantly do that, I will inevitably make money. However, these are the days with the biggest moves and if you can get on the right side of the trend, big money can be made.

DAILY - ES Futures (screenshot taken after break @ 8pm)

5 Min - ES Futures

                                            Trades

Trade 1 - Long 1 Contrcat @ PM Demand Zone

Grade: B

  • This wasn't a bad trade based on entry, but I had no target in mind so I quickly sold, when I could have gotten 10+ points out of this trade (look at Trade 2)
  • At least i took this with 1 contract
  • I expected a choppy morning being as it was FOMC day so I expected us to range in the morning, so i did have a thesis for this trade

FIX: Have a target in mind. Probably better to just avoid this trade (as with most of my trades today)

 

Trade 2 - Short 2 Contracts (1 initial, 1 add) @ Supply Zone (Trend Reversal)

Grade: D-

  • Shorting an uptrend = no bueno
  • I shorted this expecting it to reject off of the supply zone evn though it was strong, just because I thought we would range today, which we did, but I got in too early
  • This was actually a good plan that worked out, but i need to see some type of rejection first, not just anticipating it
  • I did stop the high, so I stuck to my plan at least

FIX: Wait for rejection off of supply before just anticipating resistance (demand,support) 

 

Trade 3 - Short 1 Contract @ Trendbreak Retest (Trend Reversal)

Grade: C+

  • This was better than Trade 2 simply because I waited for some type of confirmation we could reverse trend
  • Tough spot to take this short into the 21, 50 & VWAP especailly right after a data candle (PMI/JOLTs)
  • This did end up moving to the LOD though and I should have held for that because I had a very defined risk (2 Min entry candle)

FIX: Have a target and hold to it. Be careful trading around data releases.

 

Trade 4 - Short 2 Contracts @ VWAP / 50 EMA

Grade: D

  • This was a bad spot to take a trade
  • Yes, below VWAP & 50 EMA, but looking at the 5min, it was right in the middle of the range
  • This is the point where I should have been looking for a Trade 2 supply zone entry

FIX: Be a bit more patient and this could have been a great trade

 

Trade 5 - Short 1 Contract @ Supply Zone

Grade: B-

-

  • This is just another classic example of overtrading before the trade I should actually take, and then either not taking it, or doing what I did here (cover immediately) because I'm already red
  • This was the top and a great trade to target the open demand - no screenshot but we actually sold off below the open demand zone
  • No risk for a 10+ point move (2nd time of the day)

FIX: Have a plan for every trade! Thesis, Stop Target! That's it.

 

Takeaways: I need to start holding to target. It is not like I haven't said this before. i know what i need to do. Identify if ranging or trending and trade accordingly, be patient for entries, cut losers quick, hold full position size to target. Sounds so simple.

 

Easy Money: Supply and demand in the morning range, long the trend after volitility slows during FOMC/JP speech