May 5th, 2023
1. Fundamentals
- The market has been bearish for a few days regarding the bank run fears and FOMC hawkishness. Breaking back out and finding a lower high from the FOMC area is not an unlikely scenario. People are probably also shorting the shit out of the market as always, causing large spikes in price that are unwarranted. This downward pressure can cause a nice "spring" up in price.
2. Technical Analysis/Strategy
10d:30m
- Massive breakout on the 30m downtrending channel
- We opened the day outside of the previous days range which also is a massive signal that we may have extreme momentum
1d:5m
- Beautiful breakout continuation
- Extreme VOLD readings of +7-9, ADD was slightly consolidating, TICK was vastly green given all the values above +600 and hardly any values getting below -600.
- Nearly every sector was HEAVILY green at the open and pushing higher. Again another indicator telling us to get long and hold
Strategy
1d:5m (ORB)
- This was a beautiful opening range breakout. I shouldve taken the retest of the OR then sold at the first candle to attempt to break the 9ema and on the next pop sell. This wouldve been the first easy trade of the day where I wouldve gotten about anywhere from minimum 5 points to maximum 11.
1d:5m (ORB retest, or Intraday Continuation)
- Again the VOLD ADD TICK were all strong, AAPL strong, indices strong. This mid day consolidation bull flag pullback to opening range high was BEAUTIFUL. This wouldve been the best trade of the day. Retest of OR high then entry and close on the first 5m candle to close below the 9ema. Perfection.
May 2, 2023
1. Big Picture/Fundamentals
- FOMC is tomorrow so everyone is expecting the market to just sit around and do nothing which propelled the market to do something completely different. JPM acquired FRC and the financial sector took a big hit today when WAL and PACW had fears that the banking crisis is not yet over. This fear was rampant in the market and we started selling off very quickly after the open. XLF sold off huge while other offensives started to move higher. Eventually XLF caught up to the rest of the sectors and we started to dump.
- The sectors opened pretty weak leading with XLF. When XLF reached the rest of the market, fear was really setting in.
2. Technical Analysis
90d:1h
- This ridiculous bull trap occurred on monday where we broke out of the most recent higher high but only by 8 points and immediately after we flush huge back to the downside.
2d:10m
- Week to date anchored vwap was clear resisistance this morning in premarket and we held below the intraday anchored vwap nearly the entire day until close. The break below pm low immediately upon the open was a reason to check depth to see what is happening
- You can see an EXTREME vold reading over on the ES. We have clear massive selling going on around 9:45-12:30. This was the most extreme I have ever seen the VOLD. The TICK was also ridiculously weak where we put in zero values held above zero until 11:45. ADD also insanely weak with just pure selling and no letting up.
- When we have the TA looking that good and the depth also screaming the same thing, this is an A+ setup day to get short.
3. Strategies
1. Trade to Hold
- If you got in early here and traded the ORB with a sell at the first candle closure above the 9ema. This wouldve been a nearly 50 point trade. That is just pure insanity. The 30m opening range was clear, we broke it and just rocketed lower with no retest but in terms of early entries into this massive trending move there is not much better than that.
2. Move to Move/Scalps
- Clean lower high lower low continuation trading here on the 2m chart. These are so difficult to take because the pullups are so weak that itll feel like a chase no matter what. This is when EV is insanely skewed to the downside and if you just trade poorly and hold long enough you will still win. This is the environment where I need to be using huge size and just taking them even though they dont feel right. All of these trades gave a minimum of about 7 points. Those can add up so fast if you are using big size and are aggressive.
4. Trade Review
- This is clearly terrible trading given the fact that we moved down about 70 points and I took only 4 of those points. In my defense I was expecting today to have less than a 15 point range since FOMC tomorrow usually means exactly that. I was totally in the mindset of not trading at all and once we started trending and I saw 10 trades back to back work that I was hesitant to take, I finally pulled the trigger and went short but of course I was pretty much the very last person to the party after we grinded higher the entire rest of the day.
Mindset: F
- If you arent going to trade the market then why the hell are you even looking at it? There is no point in watching if you arent going to trade, might as well seek out opportunity when it shows up. I really couldve made a ton of money today had I not been so biased on my mindset of "nothing is going to happen today"
Trade Ideas: F
- Again bad grade here because I had no idea to take the first 10 shorts that works. Luckily I ended up not going long or doing anything like that but still I missed out on a huge opportunity.
Execution: B
- I managed the small trade I took well. I got in when we broke the small uptrend pullup and then I got out as we attempted to break lower. I am not sure why I ended up taking it for only 4 points but as I got in that was my goal in my head so once it hit I was ready to just take it. Again I probably did this because I was thinking in my head that I wasnt going to trade at all so putting a nice little $20 in my pocket made me get rid of the fomo.
How do I catch more of these:
- I need to stay open minded to any type of movement and when the VOLD TICK ADD are that negative, we are outside of previous day range, XLF is causing panic, we had a massive bull trap the day before, we are below the weekly and intraday anchored vwap, and everyone is expecting a low volume chop, get in the damn trend.
